09/21 10:00 AM NFL (467) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at (468) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
FREE PICK: (468) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +7
I’ve already lost count of the number of times I’ve heard the following this week: This is a must win game for the Colts.
I love hearing that stuff. Not that I’m disagreeing with the assessment that this is an absolutely huge game for Indy. It most certainly is exactly that, as an 0-3 start would be, if not disastrous, very bad news at the very least.
But must win has never meant will win, and my experience is that the burden of high expectations is not the best thing in the world for any team in any sport, especially when said team is not playing well.
The Colts are struggling. The running game is ordinary, the offensive line play has been spotty and the Colts defense is apparently even worse than some pessimists thought it might be. Andrew Luck is a brilliant talent at QB, but he’s not getting much help right now.
As for Jacksonville, they’ve been astonishingly awful since getting ahead of the Eagles by a 17-0 count in Week One. There was certainly nothing positive to garner from the blowout loss at Washington last Sunday. This team is just plain lousy on offense, and I don’t see much chance of that changing to any extent this season. But in spite of the last six quarters, I’m not as down on the Jaguars defense. I don’t think it’s a high level outfit, but I’d probably rate the Jags stop unit just a little below league average. Their biggest problem might end up being that they get worn down because the offense can’t sustain drives.
I’m not about to try and sell the Jaguars here as a team I’m wild about backing. Their running game is an absolute joke, and anyone who’s followed me over the years knows how vital rushing stats are to me. It makes no difference to me how the game has evolved over the years. It’s still a constant that teams that run well and defend the ground game successfully win football games.
This is mostly anti-Colts. Bad defensive teams make bad favorites, especially on the road, and even more especially in divisional duels. And right now Indianapolis is a very bad defensive football team. I would expect they’ll be able to amass some better stats on that side of the ball this Sunday. But I also can see the lowly Jaguars being able to get some things down on offense.
I can’t call for an outright upset, but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility. However, I do feel pretty confident the Jaguars will give the Colts a good game and that’s pretty much all they need to do to have a great chance to cover this number. I’ll grab the TD with the Jaguars to get me paid on Sunday.
--
I've got another Sunday free pick linked from my homepage