Thursday, Sept. 18
Welcome to my NFL Week 3 Overrated/Underrated injury list. This week I'm looking at the return, or loss, of five underrated players.
Indianapolis at Jacksonville (Sunday)
Item: Jacksonville strong safety Johnathan Cyprien has been cleared to play following his Week 1 concussion suffered against the Eagles.
Perception: So what. The Jaguars are terrible.
Nover's View: The Jaguars are terrible - on offense. But Gus Bradley has their defense on the rise and Cyprien is a HUGE part of that. He gives the defense a hard-hitting presence in the secondary. He finished second on the team in tackles last year as a rookie. Cyprien played the first 34 snaps against the Eagles opening week. Philadelphia did not score during that time. But when Cyprien got knocked out defending a deep pass, the Jaguars fell apart giving up 27 points during their next 53 defensive snaps. Cyprien didn't play last week against Washington and the Redskins scored 41 points, gained 449 yards and picked up 32 first downs despite losing first-string quarterback Robert Griffin III early in the game. Without Cyprien, the Jaguars have been outscored 75-10 during the past six quarters. The presence of Cyprien puts Jacksonville on my radar screen as a possible underdog play.
San Francisco at Arizona (Sunday)
Item: Carson Palmer has a nerve problem in his shoulder and may not play for a second straight week.
Perception: The Cardinals got away with Drew Stanton against the Giants last Sunday, but will be hard-pressed to do it again against the 49ers.
Nover's View: I see it that way, too. You know you're a bad quarterback when everybody says you did well only because you didn't turn the ball over. Palmer is past his prime, but the combination of being directed by offensive guru Bruce Arians and having excellent receiving weapons elevated Palmer into being one of the top 14 quarterbacks in the league. Now he may miss another week. Stanton is lucky to be coached by Arians and will be playing at home, but his many negatives are likely too much to overcome. Stanton is a game manager and wildly inaccurate. The Cardinals had four red zone situations against the Giants and Stanton could bring them in for a touchdown just once. I can't see him beating a Super Bowl contender even with the 49ers' many issues, defensive injuries and committing the most penalties in the league.
Washington at Philadelphia (Sunday)
Item: The Eagles could be without linebacker Mychal Kendricks, who suffered a calf injury this past Monday against the Colts.
Perception: The Eagles don't have any good players on defense so no big deal.
Nover's View: The Eagles do have one good player on defense - Kendricks. He's an ascending talent and easily the Eagles' best linebacker against the run. The Eagles are thin at linebacker. If Kendricks can't go then Casey Matthews is in line for big minutes. In football circles the name Matthews usually means something great like in Clay Matthews and Bruce Matthews. When it comes to Casey Matthews, though, think Tommie Aaron not Hank Aaron. This is a huge drop if Kendricks can't go. It almost ensures Alfred Morris of having a big game. If Morris has a big game than Kirk Cousins probably is going to have a good game, too.
Dallas at St. Louis (Sunday)
Item: Dallas cornerback Orlando Scandrick has been reinstated from suspension and should play against the Rams.
Perception: Perhaps the Cowboys' defense isn't quite as bad as perceived.
Nover's View: Shutting down Jake Locker doesn't change my mind that Dallas' defense is dreadful. But getting Scandrick back definitely helps. He's a leader and one of the better players Dallas has on defense. Scandrick has the versatility to play corner in the Cowboys' base defense and then cover the slot receiver in various sub-packages. He doesn't leave the field.
Ravens at Browns (Sunday)
Item: Browns tight end Jordan Cameron should play against Baltimore after missing last week's win against the Saints with a shoulder injury.
Perception: Nice plus for the Browns.
Nover's View: Not just a nice plus, but a major plus for the Browns. This is what John Harbaugh said about Cameron, "He's definitely a game-changer. He's definitely a guy you have to game plan around." During Brian Hoyer's two games last fall before he suffered a season-ending knee injury, Cameron caught 16 passes for 157 yards and four touchdowns. He finished with 80 receptions for 917 yards and seven touchdowns last year. Jimmy Graham was the only tight end who had more receiving yards than Cameron in 2013.
On the handicapping front, I have a Triple Star play going in tonight's Buccaneers-Falcons game. I am 23-11 on my last 34 Triple Stars for 68 percent and am 11-3 the past 14 times I've had a side or total in games involving the Falcons. The play can be found here: /pregamepros/pro-bettor/bettor.aspx?id=7746#capper.
As always, no bad luck!