2* Tampa Bay +7
Thursday night on the NFL Network, we have an NFC South showdown taking place in Atlanta, Georgia. The 1-1 Atlanta Falcons will host the 0-3 Tampa Bay Bucaneers. The Falcons open as a 7 point favorite so far, and I don't think the line will move much more higher or lower than that. Atlanta is coming off an embarrassment of a game against Cincinnati, while Tampa lost their second game in a row to start this season falling to the Rams 19-17. This game is huge for both teams. Atlanta would love nothing more than to make up for the Bengals loss and get their 2nd win not only of the season, but 2nd win in division play. Tampa had high hopes coming into the 2014 season. Falling to 0-3 could be devastating to a team who thought they could compete for a playoff spot. This one will be a good one, but lets take a look and see which side of the 7 point spread we wanna jump on.
The Atlanta Falcons are coming off possibly their most one sided loss in the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan era. The Bengals beat the Falcons 24-10 but if you actually watched the game, it wasn't even that close. The Bengals defensive line rushed Ryan all day and caused the Falcons offense to sputter and get nothing through the first three quarters of the contest. For Atlanta fans, the Cincy game was very discouraging. It looked eerily similar to the 2013 Falcons. The offensive line could not protect Matt Ryan, and the defense got zero pressure on the quarterback and could not stop the run. The Bengals are a good team, especially at home, but there was no excuse in the Falcons lack of performance. Now on the short week, the Dirty Birds have to find a way to solve some issues. One bright spot will be the return of rookie left tackle, Jake Matthews. Matthews was held out of the Bengals game due to an ankle injury, but word is that he will play Thursday night... I'm sure Matt Ryan is happy to hear this. The key to this game for Atlanta is to do what they did in week one: Make plays. The offense looked unstoppable, and even though yardage wise, the defense didn't look stellar, they came up with the big plays and big stops when needed. A touchdown favorite is huge in the NFL....we will see how the Falcons handle their first game as a fave in 2014.
The line sits at 7 points in favor of the Falcons. This is the first time Atlanta has been favored all season long. So far they are 1-1 against the spread with the win coming at home and the loss on the road. So far it appears that about 70% of the action is on Atlanta to get the home cover. Coming off losses, Atlanta typically plays well the following week, but remember this is a short preparation week, and Falcons coach Mike Smith said himself that there is no time to watch film from the Cincy game and that the mistakes in that game will be pointed out at a later time. They will be using Mon-Wed for Tampa preparation only. I like Atlanta to win this game but a touchdown is a big spread for a divisional game. I see a 27-21 type win for the Falcons. Remember the Tampa defense isn't all that terrible. They will hold their own but eventually give in to the Falcons attack on the Georgia Dome turf. PICK TAMPA BAY +7
Good Luck