This is pretty much part two of the last segment on Wiseguy vs Public money. Now David Malinsky joins in the conversation
RJ asks him the question--- Does the Public influence the line in any NFL game? David say's absolutely, but also states that both RJ and Teddy are wrong.
Wiseguys vs public sounds good on radio, but still it is not much of a difference. David states that the NFL betting market is now global and that just because a huge bet is made on a game it does not mean that it is from a sharp guy. Lots of non-sharp bettors these days are making huge bets on NFL games, especially in the overseas markets.
RJ has an example that a guy may come into to a sportsbook one weekend and lay 100,000 dollars on 5 CFB games and then may not make another wager of any kind for a while. He is just doing it this time for the entertainment of it. Those are the bets though that a sportsbook director may not take as seriously as say someone that comes in and is a well known face at that book and bets just 2000 dollars on a some game.
David agrees with this, but there are many bettors out there that put 50,000 on a game are for entertainment purposes. It really is hard to sniff out who the wise guys are these days.
They go back to the Minnesota game. 85% of the public was on the Pats, but still the lined moved from 6 to 3 at game time. RJ feels that could be the minority of bettors and David says yes, but also says it could be the whales placing big bets. David reiterates that just cause big money comes in on a game it is not always sharp money.
Next they talk about an article that David wrote in a recent Point Blank column about the lack of buy back this year. The big sportsbooks have many players that just won't do that. Many bettors do not like to go against the steam. It is hard for a bettor to want to do that because they mostly feel that someone knows something on that game to make it really move that way.
Dave states that going against the move is very hard for the average better to do. Don't be afraid to go with the better lower number if the line moves against what you feel. Do not be afraid to Buck moves.
Join in the conversation.