(Note: this article is long, only because it's a synopsis of what I see for the Cardinals 2014 season. Future predictions won't be a "War and Peace" novel like this one)
It's kinda funny seeing the reaction of people to the Cardinals this year. I'm getting dejavu again, except it's in Sept 2014. Last year at around April 2013, I wrote the following some forum when an article came out that mentioned what some writer thought the Cardinals needed talent-wise. This was about the time the Cardinals acquired Carson Palmer last year:
"Whoever wrote this article is pretty clueless about the Cards. Then again, most of the people on this board are pretty clueless too. You know – dumb comments like “Team needs- a new owner. A new QB. A new fan base. A new city. A new mascot.” (Did this guy just discover the Apollo 11 landing?) “Top priority – to get out of the NFC West. That way they’d at least stand a chance.” Whatever. The scrubby fans just look at the scoreboard and don’t bother figuring out how the Cards lost.
The Cards lost last year because of a bad o-line and QBs that couldn’t throw accurately and had a lot of INTs near their own endzone.
Anyone who follows the Cards knows the TE and WR position is fine. Floyd did much better in the last quarter of the season. What’d you expect from him when the QBs that were throwing had a 10:1 INT to TD ratio? Also, the d-Line has enough depth but they can use a pass rushing OLB.
It’s not like SF, SEA, and STL are world beaters. The Cards are stronger at WR than any of those teams – and it just happens that SF/SEA/STL’s weakness is their CBs. The Cards D didn’t change much from last year, but you figure Palmer is worth at least an extra 14 pts a game, which is good enough to win 10 games, regardless if they’re in the NFC West or not.
Anyone who thinks the Cards are just going to roll over like last year is a fool. It will be like 2008 all over again with Palmer at the helm.. assuming the Cards get some good guards to replace the turnstiles Snyder and Colledge."
Remember - the above was before the 2013 season started. 99% of the pundits out there had the Cardinals going 4-12 and 5-11, and people were surprised that the Cardinals won 10 games. I thought the Cardinals could win at least 8 games, and up to 10, given the Cards' strengths and weaknesses.
Now fast forward to 2014 (as in right now).
I see the same crap going on again. "OMG!! - they lost Dansby and Washington. Dockett is out.. Mathieu isn't playing.. blah blah blah."
Don't get me wrong - they did lose some key players on D. I thought the biggest loss, by far, was Washington, because he was the guy who spied on running QBs (Wilson, Kap, etc.) because he had the 4.2-4.3 speed to keep up. As for Dansby - it's not a coincidence he "blew up" at the same time Washington came back. Dockett is a fiery leader, and Mathieu is a rookie who played well above his draft status due to this pot issues. However, to panic and say the Cardinals are definitely a step down... I say "hogwash."
A lot of people think the Chargers are a team on the rise, and the Cardinals are team who will be no better than 3rd in the NFC West. Where the Cardinals finish in the NFC West is definitely debatable, but are the Chargers *that* good to beat AZ on their home floor?
To recap, here is he Cardinals schedule last year, from week 9 onwards. I'm using week 9 and onwards as a barometer because I keep reading about how the Cardinals and Chargers did the last half of the season:
And here is the Chargers schedule last year, from week 9 onwards:
Some notes to take away from this:
- The Cardinals played a much tougher schedule than SD did.
- The Cardinals lost the Eagles game on some really lousy calls late in the 4th, which made the +3.5 AZ cover that much sweeter. The 49ers game was lost on two missed (and very makeable) FGs by Jay Feely, who is now cut.
So why bring this up?
Being in the NFC West, the Cardinals are used to playing extremely physical opponents who also to be happen to be highly skilled and talented, especially on the defensive front 7. So to say the Chargers are the same, or even better than the Cardinals on a neutral field in a not so strong AFC West? I'll take this Cardinals team *any time* over SD on a neutral field.
A lot of people keep focusing on AZ's defensive losses, but what most people don't know is their depth is a lot better than before. If this was a few years ago, yes - the naysayers would be right, and I wouldn't be writing this article. However, Dockett's prime has been behind him for a while now, so the replacements they have on the DL are more than adequate. They may not be ferocious as Dockett, but they can be just as productive.
As for the linebackers, no - the Cardinals will not replace Washington. He is simply too fast and there is not another linebacker like him on the street. However, they do you have some backups that looked decent enough to get the job done, if the preseason is any indication.
Mathieu may not be playing tonight, but the backup, Rashad Johnson, was a starter at one point. He may not be a Pro-Bowler but if Mathieu was out for an extended period of time, there are worse problems to have at FS.
Enough about the negatives. It seems like that's all pundits can see about when they talk about the Cardinals. So what about the positives about this year that make me want to just bang my head when people have the Cardinals in 3rd place (at best) in the NFC West again?
- The Cardinals upgraded their offensive line - all of the scrub starters are gone, and Jared Veldheer is at LT. The only thing stopping RT Massie from being a Pro-Bowler are his mental mistakes. (Eric Winston was not very good. He was soooo good that SEA just cut him before the season started - and they need help at RT!!) The two guards at the current positions are doing a decent job, and the center (Sendlein) is decent, not over powering, but decent. It's a good sign for the Cardinals when all the talk about how lousy the O-line was has been virtually non-existent this entire preseason. The best part is, when Jonathan Cooper, AZ's 1st round pick from last year, finally recovers from turf toe, he is an added bonus to the O-line. He has been hobbled.. but I'll still take a hobbled Cooper over Daryn Collledge anyday. Oh - I forgot to mention - their TEs have been upgraded, too! Expect a lot of 2 and 3 TE formations this year to throw off opponents.
- The Cardinals are *extremely* deep at WR. Every single WR can make an impact on the team. They are so deep that if Fitz and Floyd were out due to injury, the Cards could still put up 30 points a game. The Cards, who did not have any deep threat burners last year, now have two of them, in Ted Ginn, and my favorite - John Brown (aka TY Hilton II). Floyd and Fitzgerald are as good as any WR combo in the league. Even their 5th WR, Jaron Brown, is pretty damn good.
- Carson Palmer looks like he has complete control of this offense, if this preseason is any indication. A lot of sacks were taken last year by Palmer due to pure confusion. This will not be the case this year (for the most part).
- Their defensive backfield looks really strong once Tyrann gets back on the field and Deone Bucannon learns how not to draw a $7500 fine in the NFL for an illegal hit on a defenseless WR.
- Their RB depth is better than before (and thank God Mendenhall is gone! Anyone who says Dwyer is nothing special obviously didn't see Mendenhall run last year. Dwyer doesn't need to rip off 40 yard runs.. he just needs to rip of 3-4 yards at a time, and he did that for PIT - when he was healthy. Yea - Ellington is out (most likely), but if you think about it, Ellington was used sparingly last year. It would not shock me to see a WR play tailback from play to play if speed is an issue.
- Their defensive depth is greater than what the pundits are giving them credit for. This is not 2012 where the backup would basically be a CFL-caliber scrub. There is a good mix of experience and youth, and for the system Todd Bowles runs, the AZ's GM Steve Keim does an excellent job of finding replacements in a hurry throughout a year.
So, some decent optimism here, but what are the biggest question marks on the Cardinals?
- Just like last year, they are having problem covering Tight Ends. MIN exposed this problem in the preseason. If SD is going to win tonight, expect Antonio Gates (or whoever plays TE for SD) to have two or three TDs.
- The run game. The Cardinals O-line, from what I've seen so far, are built to pass block. How will they run? Then again, does it really matter in a passing league? (See the John Fox playbook on how to blow 4th quarter leads by running too much when you want to put the game away.)
- Stopping the run game. The heat is on the young players when the RB comes in their direction up the middle. Will they handle it? (I think so.) Can they cover a pass? (Um.. errr...I don't know.)
- Will Palmer cut down on his underthrown deep balls? He's great at throwing 15-20 yard passes.. but it sure seems like every time the ball goes in the air deep, I notice the WRs have to slow down to catch it.
- Will Robert Massie cut down on his mental mistakes?
- How will the rookie FG kicker do? After all, he is a rookie (but he does have a history of making game winners at Clemson).
- Pass rush - the Cardinals need to scheme in order to rush. They blitzed the most percentage-wise than any other team in the league. Is it possible to get a pass rush from the OLBs outside of the old guy, John Abraham?
Bottom line:
Expect a lot of passing tonight. The over, currently, is at 46.5 on 5dimes. I'd have a lean on the over. However, in terms of the side, I wouldn't argue with anyone who took SD +3.5 over AZ -2.5. However, my pick is AZ -2.5 because the upside the Cardinals have on offense is enormous over SD's pass defense, which is basically a bunch of undersized corners who have to go up against either big WRs who can catch in traffic well or really speedy WRs who run excellent routes. On the other hand, SD has a good offense with good WRs, and will produce points against AZ given their QB/WRs. However, the advantage over the Cards DBs will not be as large as people think, assuming the Cards keep the SD's TEs in check.
Besides - the Cards D hasn't fallen apart - it's just not as strong as it used to be in certain areas (but it's stronger in other areas) - and so that's not a bad thing.
Also, adding support for my pick, the Cards are as effective as any team in the league when they are playing catch-up, so even if they're down in a game, odds are the game will usually come down to a last second FG for the win (or loss)
Cardinals 30-27