Wanted to get these out early.. Bet Baltimore two weeks ago and the Vikings last night seconds after the Bradford injury.. Reasoning and more plays to be added soon
4 Units- Baltimore Ravens -2 *LOSER*
Reasoning: This will likely be my top play of week 1. The Ravens historically throughout the Harbaugh/Flacco era have been an extremely tough team to beat at home. Last season they went 6-2 at home, including 3-0 in the divison, in what was a down year for the Ravens. The Bengals were a dominant home team, but went 3-5 on the road last year, including an 0-3 record in the division. Personally I am expecting a slight regression from the Bengals, and a slight improvement from the Ravens this season. These teams are close to even on a neutral field, but the value belongs to the Ravens due to there dominant home record the past 5 years while the Bengals are a team that struggles on the road. I find a lot of value on the Ravens at this -2 to -2.5 number
3 units- Minnesota Vikings +6 *WINNER*
Reasoning: I know this number is not available to people anymore, but I had this game circled since the original lines were released, and after watching Bradford's injury live I bet it seconds after instead of waiting. I will say that people should not bet this game for the sole purpose of Bradford being out, because I have Shaun Hill, a formidable backup to a team that is use to playing without bradford, being just a 1 to 1.5 point downgrade. The Vikings pose one of the best skill position corps surrounding there QB in the league, and a defense that should be improved under Mike Zimmer. Both teams have a talented team built around the QB, but questions at the position, so I could not pass up the value of the Vikings getting 6 points while being a similar team to the Rams talent wise. I see this being a ball control game that is decided by one score or less, so I see value on the Vikings at +4.5 or better
2 Units- Dallas Cowboys +5.5 *LOSER*
Reasoning: I'm expecting a high scoring game, and Dallas to play up to there competition. Dallas at home last year had a 5-3 record, and lost those three games by 1,2, and 3 points(one loss was with Kyle Orton). This team has a knack for playing competitive in big home games, for as long as I can remember in the romo era. Look no further then last seasons shootout with the broncos at Dallas. San Francisco is a good team, but the abscence of Bowman, Smith, and the lack of great cornerback play is gonna hurt them in this game. San Fran makes a living on defense of controlling the line of scrimmage, but Dallas has a good offensive line and can stay balanced between the run/pass. Dallas' defense is weak, but I feel they are more prone to be exposed by a potent pocket passer QB like Peyton manning or drew Brees, who destroyed them last season. Kap is a good QB but can be inconsistent, and I think the 49ers are laying way to many points on the road in this contest to a good home team, with a good QB and a knack for playing competitive in big home games!
2 Units- Chicago Bears -6 (-115) *LOSER*
Reasoning: The bears are one of the most popular dark horse Super Bowl contenders out there, because of there star skill position players surrounded by a good QB and a very good offensive minded coach. One trend I picked up on buffalo last season was at home they are extremely tough to beat, they went wire to wire at home with teams like the Chiefs, Pats, ravens,Panthers, and Bengals. But on the road, it's a different story. The Bills went 2-6 on the road, and all 6 losses were by 7+ points. They simply looked non competitive in some of these road games. The Bills QB situation is a mess right now, and there only hope in this game is there front 4 and running game being able to keep them in the game. I say they'll keep it close early but the bears will pull away to win by 10-14 points, led by a big game from Jay Cutler against a Bills team that lost Jairus Byrd and kiko Alonso From last season. my one scare is this game comes across as "To east", especially with the public betting heavily on the Bears, but the bills QB situation, the Bears roster/coaching, and the bills ineptitude on the road is making this a play for me
1 unit- Denver Broncos -6.5 (-120) *WINNER*
Why only 1 unit? Because when I have to buy a half point, I automatically knock the bet down a unit, and I bought a full point to make the bet -6.5 -120. The spot is great for Denver, as Denver thrived in all three of there "revenge" games from last season. They demolished the ravens and patriots in revenge games, and beat the chargers in the divisional round in one. Last season when Indy upset Denver at home, the line was Denver -6.5 and now IN DENVER we are giving the same amount of points. The reason I like Denver in this game is in the trenches. Robert Mathis is the only pro bowl calibar front 7 player for Indy, and with him missing I can't see Indy being able to get pressure on Peyton, who now has Ryan clady back on his blindside. Peyton can tear a defense apart with no pass rush, and I'm expecting that this game. Andrew luck is a stud but his OLine is still a question mark, and if he's playing from behind and going up against a pass rush featuring Von Miller and Demarcus Ware, I think the task will be to much for luck to overcome For the colts at one of the toughest places to play in the league.
1 unit- Seattle Seahawks -4 (-120) *WINNER*
Too much value to pass up on at this number..
1 unit- New York Giants +7 (-120) *LOSER*
Think Detroit should be about -4.5... To many points to pass up on GMen
1 unit- San Diego Chargers +3 (-110) *WINNER*
better team in my opinion getting points.. Think lack of a cardinals outside pass rush could lead to big game from Rivers..