Wednesday, Aug. 20
One of the worst mistakes a fantasy football owner can make is drafting a player based on last year's stats.
Yet because of his record-breaking season last year, Peyton Manning is going to be the No. 1 quarterback taken in virtually all fantasy drafts.
I say it's a mistake. Not that Manning isn't going to put up outstanding numbers. He is. But he's 38 and a touch of the neck away from probably having to immediately retire.
That makes him more vulnerable than Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford, all of whom I would put in the same quarterback tier as Manning. They are the safer picks.
There is no way Manning throws for 55 touchdowns and 5,477 yards again like last year. Too many factors against it starting with Denver's schedule.
Instead of drawing the weak AFC South and NFC East Divisions like last year, the Broncos face the league's second-most difficult schedule getting the best defensive division in football, the NFC West, along with the AFC East, which has respectable defenses.
Manning feasted on the weak defenses in his own AFC West. But those defenses all look better now. Denver also suffered a downgrade at wide receiver losing Eric Decker and picking up Emmanuel Sanders, who isn't as good.
Denver's defense appears much improved with the additions of DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward. Von Miller also is available for the full season. That means fewer shootouts.
The makeup of Denver's offense is different with Montee Ball replacing Knowshon Moreno as the main ball-carrier. Moreno was a dangerous passing target. Ball isn't. He's a between-the-tackles workhorse type of runner. This is the kind of back Denver coach John Fox has always preferred.
Fox is one of the more conservative coaches. So I envision the Broncos throwing much less, especially in the second half, as they protect leads and feed the ball a lot to Ball to eat clock.
On the handicapping front, I won my August Underdog Game of the Month last night with the Astros beating the Yankees. I have another underdog play going tonight. Also available at the lowest price is my college football season package. This is a limited time offer. I've cashed 61 percent and 54 percent the last two years in college football and have won 64 percent of my bowl plays during this time. All of this can be found on my home page at /pregamepros/pro-bettor/bettor.aspx?id=7746#capper.
As always, no bad luck!