The NFL pre-season is here with the Giants and Bills kicking off the action in the annual Hall of Fame game. That coincides with the annual argument as whether the NFL pre-season should be viewed strictly as an evaluation period or whether there might be value in trying to beat the betting lines.
The stance on the leave these games alone side of the aisle has always been the same. Simply put, how can anyone risk money on games that don’t count? To me, that’s a really limited mindset. There are more than a few solid bettors who have done well with MLB exhibition games, the NBA summer league and other options where the games don’t count. If you have good information that you can comprehend, take advantage of it. I couldn’t care less if a game counts if I have a decent shot at winning it. The money doesn’t care whether it’s a meaningless exhibition game or the Super Bowl. It all spends the same.
I don’t try to analyze these games like I do a regular season duel. Clearly, they’re very different in every regard. Long story short, bad teams can be exhibition monsters, and good teams can be exhibition bums. That’s where garnering as much information and using it to your benefit comes into play.
This will be the only time of the season where, in at least a few instances, the coaches tell us what they’re trying to accomplish. It’s also pretty normal to get player rotation info as to how much time will be allocated to various units. Obviously, the guys making the numbers have this information as well, and it will show up in the betting lines, But that doesn’t mean your advantage is necessarily gone.
Ideally, I’m looking for the following. I want to play on teams that have the most depth. Since second and third units will be getting in many cases the lion’s share of the snaps, this is vital info. I’m particularly interested in getting on teams with as many position battles as possible. Try and get a feel for the coaching staff’s mindset from local beat writer blogs and columns.
Finally, be really selective. Most of the games aren’t going to offer any significant edge, at least from my vantage point. But if you can zero in a couple of games each week where there’s an edge to be had, I don’t see any reason not to swing into action and pick off a winner.
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Also on Sunday . . . three best bets (including NFL best bet; 10-2 on best bets at Pregame) and a free pick (fading a lucky pitcher) plus more rants (including calling out 70% win claims) plus a special early-bird football offer (lowest price ever) - now on my homepage