Pro’s Plan To Win – 2014 Football
Beating the bookie is hard. It takes expertise and discipline. One of the differentiators of the Pregame.com platform is our insistence that our Pros provide enough free content for followers to gain insight into each Pro’s handicapping and betting approach. Through reading, listening to, and viewing this free content over time, a potential customers is able to find and follow select Pros with a style he particularly likes (and avoid Pros with a style he doesn’t like). After following this content over time, all of the daily details will add up to a big picture. Even better, what can aid the big picture process is a clearly stated PLAN. That’s why we are starting the “Pro’s Plan To Win” series. Each Pregame Pro – in their own words – will plainly state in detail the handicapping and betting approach they believe will maximize their chances of winning during the upcoming season. We all know that words can be cheap, but with our Pros you have a long history of free content from each which will be consistent with their words – this history makes their Plan To Win more than just words . . . allowing you to make confident and informed decisions about whose picks you should be betting during the 2014 football season . . . And as always, feel free to offer feedback or ask questions directly to the Pros . . .
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My plan is no different than it is in any season/sport. It's to make less mistakes than I did they year before, and I don't care if I only made one (I probably made two) then the new goal would be to make NONE. That takes increased discipline and focus. Unless you are strictly following line moves late in the day (which would mean you would actually handicap and do the work) you (I) simply must keep an even keel regardless of the previous outcomes. Perfect example was last night's Miami loss. Years ago I'd still be "upset" and it would effect what we do TODAY which can do nothing be be a distraction and cause negative thoughts to come into play.
Being football specific, it's simply preparation. We're already looking well beyond the first few weeks to see where the opportunities might be. Lots of talk about the best number, but you've got to have one in mind before they come out. Doing the Guessing Lines Show over the years has actually been a huge help to ME because it forces me to be ready and willing to fire early rather than wait, second guess, or talk myself out of an easy winner.
I could go on forever about the preparation and planning, but waiting til Saturday or Sunday to see what's going on is not a recipe for long term winning. Again, we've had good seasons and we've had great ones, and the difference to me is not how many good bets you make, but how many bad ones you DON'T.
If I get all excited about football because it's the number one bet sport and brings people out of the woodwork, I'll lose site of the fact that the same dollars are on several baseball plays tonight, and that it IS a business. So, the PLAN is to not set up false or unreasonable expectations. If I go 1-4 in the first week of the LVH contest, that cannot effect the next 80 bets we have to make............keep the blood pressure medicine handy and move on regardless.
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Of any big win we have had, or winning streak, or even coming out of a losing streak, of this I am most proud:
Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind.
I still want to know if all these people on Twitter and Pick-Selling sites claim to have beaten up books for years, I would think there would be no places left to place wagers.
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TREMENDOUS idea, RJ! I can't wait to read this thread over the coming weeks.
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Good Luck Dave, you always do go work, one of the few handicappers that I can still learn from.,
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For Me it's about Respect and Great times and solid picks. I'll be wrong 48%, but I'll cash in 52%. Make 1000 picks yourself before you smack talk. You want a guarantee? Here you go, I guarantee that no one will make picks in a greater state of intoxication! MY POSTS ARE INTENDED FOR INFORMATIONAL AND ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, and is not intended for any other purpose. http://twitter.com/ozzie2005> I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!
I'm going to spend 3x as much time on EVERY prime-time NFL game. The reason is THESE games offer 3x as many wagering opportunities, AND those xtra wagering options are easier to beat. AND great live wagering bets since most books deal this MNF/SNF.
On a typical MNF game on game day, 8 pros will be on the favorite, 5 on the dog, 4 on the over, 6 on the under. EVERY one of them will argue with me that THEIR picks are going to win.
Meanwhile, I'm going to have Sea/SF UNDER 7.5 1st quarter. I'm going to have Chic/GB longest fg UNDER 44.5 with 35 mph winds.
I FULLY recognize that many won't have the outs or be able to bet some of the more exotic plays, but others do. When I came to Pregame, RJ made it very clear that he would like me to do many things, BUT NO1 ON THE LIST was to WIN. W-I-N.
I don't want marginal bets. I want REALLY ************* Good bets. Whatever it takes to get to them.
Also, that means doing everything I can to get down ASAP when an apparent right side presents itself, but the game isn't that day.
Look no further than that Solid Bills qb rotation........ The season hasn't started and I've already made my 1st mistake NOT releasing Buf pk or Buf -1. And likely my 2nd mistake missing the game OVER 32.
we ALL think we are great at this, but the truth is I make DOZENS of mistakes each week.........it's impossible to be perfect. Missing a good bet is always disappointing, but it isn't that big of a deal......you just need to get as many as you can during the season.............however, you NEED to be aware when you have missed great bets. And learn to get more of them.
Handicapping success is learning from our mistakes... and not repeating them. Having realistic expectations is also key. We simply can't win EVERY single game. It's important to budget our bankroll for losses. Sharp players and gamblers already know that the “Holy Grail” in terms of handicapping success is a winning percentage of 58% or higher over the course of a month… a season… or multiple seasons. And that’s what we strive for.
What sets us apart from others is our emphasis on a DATABASE. I handicap from a technical style, with particular emphasis on playing SITUATIONAL Systems from our database. We all are in agreement that sports are much like life in that it tends to REPEAT itself. College and Pro teams in similar situations will repeat the SU and ATS results that occurred in the past. That’s what makes our databases in football so crucial and important. With over 30 years of game results at our fingertips, the data that’s available will usually reward the hard-working handicapper with more winners than losers.
In the football season, our selections are always released the day BEFORE a game. Sometimes, we’ll even come out a couple days in advance. In that way, our customers can get their action in as soon as possible to take advantage of the ‘softer’ lines. Once you get to game day, the ‘steam’ that comes in can potentially wipe out the value of a play… particularly an Over / Under selection. So it’s always advantageous for our customers to shop for the best line possible…. At the very least the night before a game.
On average, a typical King Creole selection has a write-up and analysis of 500 to 700 words. The more information and data that you can provide to a client (I call it ATS and OU ‘ammo’), the clearer that you can state your case. We have no respect for handicappers who throw out a few sentences and call that an analysis. Customers need to know that they are paying their hard-earned money for a write up that has some ‘meat’ to it… and hard work behind it. So you always get a thoughtful and meaningful analysis with plenty of data when you purchase a King Creole play.
This is such a comprehensive question that I am going to hit the highlights only. Football Betting and changed a bunch and most primarily when lines become available and WA, which is much earlier now than back in the day. There are also many ways one can bet. I can remember the days when there was not such thing as Totals for the Game. Now you can bet Team Totals, Halftime Totals, 1 Quarter Totals, etc..
Lines now come out late Sunday and one of the things we will be doing as in the past is getting on some of these ASAP before sharp bettors have the time to beat us to it. We will then come back with more on game day as numbers change and plays that were not worthy due to the betting line earlier in the week are now..
Certainly getting pertinent info is important and timely and even in today's world it is possible to get some of that even well before most others. I use the word "WE" because I do have a strong info partner and I do have what I consider to the best THE strongest Database Guy on this Planet. We chat Sunday evening, Tuesday morning, and again Thursday about what we know, what we do not, and what we want to know. That which we want to know we research...
I am a believer that Volume is insignificant in one respect and that is that Large Volume does not always equate to large earnings. Having said that we most always have large volume than most because we are on top of more than most. It's the Ole 3 Heads are better than one thing so we are able to find more +EV opportunities..
As always I will put a number of alternative betting plays on Twitter and some on here as well as those are not allowed in our pick format but do offer great opps and in some cases the best one's. It's going to be another fun year and just saying that gives me Goosebumps..
There will be as always a Heavy Concentration on Totals and we will almost almost get the best number or close to it. I would guess that the Totals/Sides Percentage would be somewhere in the 58%/42% range this year like previous years have been. On occasion we will Buy Back a Total Play based on some info obtained and in some cases we will add to an existing play for the same reason..
There will be No concentration on a particular conference. Many think that because I live in Memphis that I know the SEC better than other conferences but that is just not the case. I do have some really good ties to the Sunbelt though and we should do very well playing Sunbelt games due to that. Otherwise because of the way that we do what we do, you can expect plays from Coast to Coast..
I could go on and one but that should give you guys some idea of what to expect for this college and pro season..
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