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Dan Bebe's 2010 Auto-Updater: (9/13: ~MNF Top Play, off 4-0 Sun~)

Dan Bebe

Joined: 04/27/2009

Posts: 38323

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Posted

on Wed, Oct 28 2009 8:31 AM

I am officially changing this thread from just NBA to ALL THINGS DAN BEBE. Many of you will get emails when I post links and daily notes, and any thoughts, questions, comments, are ALWAYS welcome.

Just remember to head to the LAST NOTE in this long thread, or you may find yourself a tad lost! :)

[edited by: Dan Bebe at 11:50 AM (GMT -8) on Mon, Sep 13 2010]

DanBebe.com - Home of All Things Bebe
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Final Season Records (Weighted to 2-Units per Play)
2008-09 NBA Record: 49-35-3 (+10.50, Avg Bet Size = 1.00; Wtd Total = +21.00)
2009 MLB Record: 161-143-4 (+6.54, Avg Bet Size = 1.01; Wtd Total = +12.95)
2009-10 NFL Record: 19-12-1 (+6.90, Avg Bet Size = 0.97; Wtd Total = +14.23)
2009-10 NBA Record: 174-148-6 (+12.84, Avg Bet Size = 1.09; Wtd Total = +23.56)
2010 MLB Record: 132-143 (-18.71, Avg Bet Size = 1.34; Wtd Total = -27.93)
2010 CFB Record: 27-21-3 (+12.25, Avg Bet Size = 1.39; Wtd Total = +17.66)
2010 NFL Reg. Season: 33-36-1 (+1.70, Avg Bet Size = 1.32; Wtd Total = +2.24)
1st Place in 2009 Pregame Fantasy Football League
3rd Place in 2010 Pregame Fantasy Baseball League

rollll_tide

Joined: 10/19/2009

Posts: 2163

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Posted

on Wed, Oct 28 2009 9:22 AM

Hello all,

I am wondering what is the standard teaser # in the NBA?

Is it 6 like Football or something lower?

Any help would be appreciated!

This is an excellent site!!

Tweet on this @rollll_tide Id rather be lucky than good, any day of the week. (or would I)? Check the Bio for past records (if u give a shit) Im here for two things, kick some bookies butts and drink some free beer. Looks like were almost out of free beer.. Member of THE COALITION/Poet/Rapper/Mixer "i do it all" 2011 King of the Hill Contest RUNNER UP You CANNOT win following Sharp Money. Because by the time you follow it, it ain't Sharp anymore. - Greg Shaker I am a Kick Ass Pregame.com Director of the Boards!

cheetahmsl

Joined: 03/25/2009

Posts: 423

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Posted

on Wed, Oct 28 2009 11:18 AM

hey DAN i agree with most of your picks but 1 in particular is the minnesota game but you said that min was favored they are now 2 pt dogs huge line move but i still like the min game, does that line move make you think differently

Dan Bebe

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Posted

on Wed, Oct 28 2009 11:48 AM

Hey Roll - I'm not a big NBA teaser player, so perhaps I can step aside and let someone else give you the key teaser plays with basketball!

Dan Bebe

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Posted

on Wed, Oct 28 2009 11:49 AM

It does scare me a bit...a lot of these plays are just thoughts -- I'll be posting my 2 or 3 top plays in this thread later tonight. Those breakdowns were mostly just my leans and thoughts. A 4 point swing could be the result of an injury concern or other information...I know Al Jefferson was dealing with a leg issue, so keep an eye on who's healthy enough to play in that one

cheetahmsl
hey DAN i agree with most of your picks but 1 in particular is the minnesota game but you said that min was favored they are now 2 pt dogs huge line move but i still like the min game, does that line move make you think differently

Dan Bebe

Joined: 04/27/2009

Posts: 38323

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Posted

on Wed, Oct 28 2009 2:12 PM

Tonight's 4 NBA plays!

1) Boston Celtics vs. Charlotte Bobcats (2*, +10) - You can see my thoughts on this game from the blog entry, but suffice it to say that the Celtics are on the second night of a back-to-back, and big spreads like this one are generally pretty risky for favorites this early in the season. Teams don't have their offensive rhythm yet, and for Boston to come home to host the Bobcats, a team they just don't care to get up for, a night after a grueling, tough win on the road in Cleveland, we simply must take the squad with the points. Digging deeper, Charlotte took Boston to OT twice last season, double-OT in one of those games, and lost the regulation affair by just 5 points. Charlotte is not afraid to play the Celtics, and is not afraid to play in Boston. They have a wealth of young talent that can go toe-to-toe with the Celtics high-priced All-Stars. Make no mistake, I don't think Charlotte wins this game, but I also don't think they get blown out of the building. Expect Boston to get out to a comfortable lead near 10, and hang onto it for most of the game, only to give back 4 or 5 near the end with reserves in the game. This is our top play of the night.

2) Orlando Magic vs. Philadelphia 76ers (+9.5) - When this line opened at Magic -8, I thought it was pretty fair, but even then considered the Sixers. With public money pushing this line up 1.5 points to nearly double-digits, I simply can't pass up the value we're getting on the hyper-athletic Sixers. People need to remember that this is opening night, and the emotion, the adrenaline, the jitters just don't really subside tonight. Both teams will be hoisting up their fair share of bricks in this one, and I just love the Magic's reliance on the 3-pointer. Yes, they are the better team, but without the gelling necessary this early in the season to blow a team out, Philly plays them tough and doesn't get rolled over in game one. Bear in mind, too, that Philly gave Orlando FITS in the playoffs last year, before finally getting clubbed near the end of the series. Vince Carter instead of Turkoglu and Jameer Nelson instead of Rafer Alston means the Magic will be better, but a healthy Elton Brand means that the Sixers suddenly have one of the strongest shotblocking front-courts in the NBA. I expect a hotly contested game that goes to the Magic near the end.

3) Under 209, Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz - This game opened at 210, and we can still grab it at a nice number of 209. Simply put, this number is too high for just about any teams in the League. Utah can't play on the road, and Denver will be dealing with extremely high expectations and open up a bit tight. Some low-scoring opening and closing quarters in this game will make sure the high-flying antics in-between don't push the total over the mark. I think this one ends much closer to 200 on the nose, as opposed to 210. Plus, how does the Carlos Boozer situation hit the Jazz? Does he shoot the lights out in the road opener? I supremely doubt it.

4) Toronto Raptors (+6) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers - This play would have been stronger if Cleveland was coming off a win since it would be a classic voyage-to-Canada let-down spot. Still, Cleveland is not the same this year. LeBron thought he had himself a championship run in the tank last season, and it was not to be. You just know he's not going to be as jazzed up about the 82-game grind getting to the playoffs. Beyond Lebron, Shaq is a detriment to this team. Don't get me wrong, I love the guy, and he changed the way the game is played, but he's old, and he can't guard my grandmother. Tonight, Andrea Bargnani and Chris Bosh will take him outside the paint, freeing up countless easy shots for a vastly underrated Toronto club that has a star at almost every position. I think this game goes down to the WIRE, and if that's the case, I don't care who wins, because it'll be closer than 6 points. If I had to guess, I'd say Cavs win by 2, but Raptors with 6 points is far and away the value (and smart) play. Oh, and for you line junkies, almost 90% of the public is on Cleveland, and the line has moved just a half point from the opening mark of 5.5.

Sac Lawson

Joined: 10/19/2008

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Posted

on Wed, Oct 28 2009 2:17 PM

Fantastic.. not against you, or Mike tonight on anything.... that's odd.. between the 3 of us you'd think we'd differ somewhere.

Sac Lawson Twitter - Follow Away!

Dan Bebe

Joined: 04/27/2009

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Posted

on Wed, Oct 28 2009 3:18 PM

Hahaha, yeah, you really would have thunk - well, maybe we'll all sweep, though I think I'm on a same play as Mike, so that would make a three-way-sweep a lot easier

SacLunch
Fantastic.. not against you, or Mike tonight on anything.... that's odd.. between the 3 of us you'd think we'd differ somewhere.

Dan Bebe

Joined: 04/27/2009

Posts: 38323

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Posted

on Wed, Oct 28 2009 5:40 PM

Wow, White Chocolate is really giving it to the Sixers....not a guy I expected to step up huge for Orlando on opening night. Still time for a backdoor?

jonpistone2

Joined: 08/06/2008

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Posted

on Wed, Oct 28 2009 7:01 PM

Great picks tonight...GREAT info....loved reading your article as well. I didnt get a chance to take the Suns +1 ... they are now -3.5 do you still like them?!?! or is that turning into a bigger number than you like??

'12 NFL Props: (16-14) +2.65 Units

'12 NFL: (14-11) +2.87 Units

'12 CFB: (30-22) +5.7 Units

MLB: (45-24-1) +22.83 Units

'12 Tennis: +30.50 Units

Soccer: (10-11-4) -2.2 Units

'12 XNFL (8-12-1) -5.2 Units

'10 & `11 NFL: (142-91-2) +117.45 Units

Super Bowl 46 Props: (2* Plays = 6-0) (1* Plays = 12-6) (overall = 18-6) = +18.9 Units!

'11 XNFL (11-8) +9.7 Units

`10 NFL Props: (69-41-2) +55.85 Units

'10 & `11 CFB: (139-89-5) +107.1 Units

`10-11 & '11-12 NHL: (100-86-13) +42.5 Units

`10-11 & '11-12 CBB: (220-160) +86.1 Units

'10-11 & '12 NBA: (83-79) +13.2 Units

`11 MLB Props: (4-0) +5.25 Units

`10-11 NBA Props: (16-8) +17.85 Units

Boxing: (2-0) +8 Units

'12 PGA (21 of 37 Winning Events) -3.09 Units (3 Correctly Selected Event Winning Golfer)

'11PGA (19 of 31 Winning Events) +150.64 Units (9 Correctly Selected Event Winning Golfers!)

'10 PGA (25 of 30 Winning Events) +202.5 Units

2* plays (233-134)

3* plays (119-57)

4* plays (72-37)

5* plays (52-14)

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