WELCOME TO THE KING MAKER
There are a number of reasons to like Tennessee outright in this game, but the fact that multiple books are offering 6.5 is too hard to pass up. I just took Tennessee +6.5 at BetUS and snatched the hook, but it was -130 so I don't really advise the hook, as we can get the outright in this one. I did the 7 becuase I always take the 7......it's just me...not recomended, though
You can feel safe with:
The Tennessee Titans +6.5 (-110) at BetUS
1-Unit or (7 out of 10 Stars at the Sports Monitor)
Analysis to follow....
A linebacker checkmate?
We all love the beauty of the Steeler 3-4, but what happens when the linebackers have their hands full and what happens if the Nose Tackle is getting slower and less effective? Tennesse might be better at Center and The outside LB's will be occupied by two TE's)
Here's the first part of my reasoning:
Timmons is probably NOT going to play, so he'll be replaced by a special teamer named Keyaron Fox. The dropoff is significant in this regard, but don't trust me. Here's what the experts think:
*As a linebacker, he doesn't fit the 3-4 very well, but does have some positional versatility in a 4-3 scheme. He isn't bashful about taking on bigger blockers or the fullback in the hole. He shows good range and has a feel for zone coverage. However, he isn't overly instinctive and can be late to see the play developing.* (Advanced Scouting)
The Steelers disrupt the opponent's inside running game with their trademark X-Stunt Blitz. When you combine that with a healthy Casey Hampton, then the running game for the opponent gets crushed.
The X-Stunt will be in full view, but without Timmons the glory of that arrangement is blunted.
At Nose Tackle, the Steelers are looking sluggish and I have no idea how well Hampton is going to do in this game, but it looks like Kevin Mawae will be able to contain him, and actually move him off the line. The Steelers are only 2-deep at NT, so if Hampton's knee goes under, then Hoke will be the last achor for that defense. EVERYONE KNOWS THAT A GREAT 3-4 DEFENSE NEEDS A PRESENCE AT NOSE TACKLE.
So if Timmons is out and Hampton is 1-play away from re-injuring his knee (Aug 10th), do you feel good about the Steeler defense being optimal?
More in a second (Double Tight End Formation for Tennessee).....
A double Tight End Formation with TWO powerful recieving threats........
Occupies the outside linebackers, or a safety in coverage!
This limits what Pittsburgh can do in terms of blitz packages. Tennessee worked hard to have Scaife and Crumpler on their line, because they can run both of them toward the edges, and this drags a safety into direct coverage. Some would say that it also allows that safety to get closer to the line for a surprize blitz, but Collins is no fool and neither are the Tennesse Tight Ends.
So I'll keep this short: Pittsburgh does well against unbalanced lines. They dont do well when both sides of the line have a recieving threat.
Tennessee didn't have this luxury last season.
They sure as hell didn't have Nate Washington to worry the other safety. If Washington goes (he practiced on Monday and is going to play IMO), then we might be seeing a standard Pittsburgh Defense that might have to string themselves out to cover all the threats.
Tennessee runs a Pro-Spead Offense...........They want to...and CAN...stretch anyone out now...........Look out!
This game should not be +6.5 at all..................
If Pittsburgh's offensive line is no better this year, then.......
The 10 men that Tennessee retained on their Defensive line will wear down this average unit (46 sacks given up last year) and 5 against Pittsburgh in the last meeting (Without Haynesworth, by the way).
HMMMMM?
Jason Jones has 3.5 sacks on Ben in the last meeting.
The Tennessee Two-Deep at Tackle is VERY STRONG.
Great job as usual King. Just did the same at Bet.US. Not that this matters but my cousin runs the Bet.US website. I need to try and get the pregame people some perks if they don't already get any. If anyone has any ideas let me know and I'll ask him if he can put something together for us. Thanks again. By the way are you still working any baseball ?
If you're picking Tennessee at +6.5, then it is well worth it to get the hook in my opinion because of the low total in the game. That extra half point is huge.
Evan AltemusIf you're picking Tennessee at +6.5, then it is well worth it to get the hook in my opinion because of the low total in the game. That extra half point is huge.
Evan, great call! Buy the hook, and that means the Steelers must win by 8 for Titans' backers to lose!
Evan Altemus If you're picking Tennessee at +6.5, then it is well worth it to get the hook in my opinion because of the low total in the game. That extra half point is huge.
Evan, They're charging -130 for the Hook so it's something I dont want to advise. I sincerely believe that Tennessee can win.
You are right, and I took the hook on most of my accounts, but I have to take +6.5 at The Sports Monitor, so I dont want to have one record with the Monitor and another at Pregame. Frankly speaking, the -130 is a big cut when it should be -120.
Tennessee OVER 14.5 might be a play,a nd YES....still mulling over the OVERALL OVER.
Willy1 Great job as usual King. Just did the same at Bet.US. Not that this matters but my cousin runs the Bet.US website. I need to try and get the pregame people some perks if they don't already get any. If anyone has any ideas let me know and I'll ask him if he can put something together for us. Thanks again. By the way are you still working any baseball ?
Thanks Willy: I wont work baseball until I'm good at it again. I screwed the pooch in April, May, June, so I wont touch it this year. I wont touch it until I deserve to touch it. Nuff said, brother.
I like BetUS: Though they are an expensive house to play in. Customer service is great. Tarriffs are too high (like the -130 on the Tennessee hook!)
In hoops, Bookmaker and their partner BetUS give me the earliest lines!!!!!!!!
I like teasing down the total to OVER 28/29 points as well in combination with maybe like taking New England down to -3.5/-4.5 from -10.5.