Chiefs at Colts (-1.5)
Key question: How vanilla was KC against Indy two weeks ago?
In that game KC was -4 in turnovers
(even though they lead the AFC in turnover margin this season)
Alex Smith last 41 games as a starter: 31-9-1 SU
Andy Reid on road: 62% ATS in career (79-48 ATS)
Psychology of KC’s Field Goal kicker after miss against Chargers?
KC won their last playoff game in 1993
(In time since, kickers have made only 3 of 9 FG in playoff games).
Big conversation topic in KC media.
Special teams coach said:
“He needs to make a bunch of kicks in a row to get everyone’s confidence back”
12-4 ATS at home in Andrew Luck’s career
KC 2-5 last 7 games (beat Redskins and Raiders)
Road team for Saturday games on short week
Visitor has covered 6 straight KC games
Colts – fewest first quarter points in NFL
Saints at Eagles (-2.5)
Road team in Saints games has covered only 1 of 16 games this season
Quarterback Foles this season: 27 TDs and 2 INTs
Eagles as favorites, following game as favorite: 4-19 ATS
Eagles: covered only 6 of last 27 home games
Saints – on road: lost 6 straight ATS
(Saints did perform decently on road against New England and Carolina)
Road team for Saturday games on short week
Eagles changed coaches and scheme on both offense and defense; typically those teams improve more as they transition through the season (Philly won 7 of last 8 SU)
Chargers at Bengals (-6.5)
Bengals perfect 8-0 ATS at home this season. How rare is that? Cincinnati only 5th team in last 25 seasons to do so.
Cincy won home games this season by almost 18 points per game
(and covered by 13 points per game)
Tough competition in those home games:
Ravens – Steelers – Packers (with Rodgers) – Patriots – and Colts
Road team in Bengals games has covered only 2 of last 18
Chargers biggest Super Bowl longshot: 44/1
SD has the weakest defense (per play) of any playoff team
4th time in 5 seasons Bengals have made the playoffs
But now in his 11th season
Marvin Lewis has never won, nor covered, a playoff game
(losing on average by almost 13 points per game)
10 am Pacific start for Chargers
San Fran at Green Bay (+2.5)
Home underdogs in the first round of the NFL playoffs are RARE
In the prior 35 playoffs – going back to 1978
there have been only 18 home underdogs in the first round
Even though playing on road in first round
SF still the 3rd favorite to win Super Bowl
(behind only Seattle and Denver)
San Fran 11-5 ATS (Seattle only other team to achieve 11 covers)
Packers 21-12 ATS as underdogs
GB 1-7 ATS without Rodgers
49ers – on road: covered 7 straight ATS
Harbaugh won all 3 against Packers
all 3 national TV games people remember
and San Fran covered all 3 – by a combined 25 points
SF 11-2 streak (losing only to Carolina and at New Orleans)
You have to wonder how the weather will affect a still less than 100% Rodgers