NFL PLAYOFF REST ? OR RUST?

NFL PLAYOFF REST ? OR RUST?
By Marc Lawrence

It seems like only yesterday when NFL playoff teams took the field with a week of rest against advancing Wild Card Round winners and proceeded directly to winners circle.  But such is not the case today.  As Bob Dylan put it so sagely, "The times are a-changin'."

Don't know if you've noticed but what was once a moneymaking proposition backing rested teams in the NFL postseason has turned into a stone-cold loser, instead.  Perhaps it's been an over-adjustment by the linesmaker.  Or maybe it was an edge that was lost by teams that opted not to play their starters in season finales. Whatever the case, to ask them to "turn on the switch" two weeks later simply isn't working.

Let's examine how these rested teams have fared in the playoffs since 1990, when the league shifted from a ten to a twelve-team playoff format. Here are the results.  (Note - all rested teams were hosting unrested Wild Card round winners):

1991-2007
48-14 SU and 33-27-2 ATS

Overall an unspectacular, if not respectable, 55% winning effort against the number.  However, let's break down the numbers and take a closer look at how these same teams have fared over the past two decades:

1991-1999
32-7 SU and 24-14-1 ATS
2000-2007
16-7 SU and 9-13-1 ATS

Uh, oh.  Do you see what I see? Like the Exxon Valdez, these well-rested home teams appear to be leaking oil at an alarming rate. In fact, over the last 5 postseasons these appear to have blown a gasket, going just 6-5 SU and 1-10 ATS since the 2004 playoff season.

Now what is your take on coaches resting starters in Week Sixteen of the season?  So this week, take the time to carefully evaluate the four rested hosts and get a better perspective of their condition.  It could be time well spent?    

I see a 10 Star play on the fiesta bowl tonight.  How have you fared the past 3-5 years on 10* picks ?  Be good for all forum readers to know this

I believe the rested team will be a little bit rusty.  All the momentum they had is now gone after 2 long weeks of rest.  In the other hand, u have a team coming to ur town off a wildcard win who has a bit more energy and a little more momentum after winning the 1st round.  I like to back the wildcard team coming off a win in this situation. I feel he WC team will have more confidence after winning the 1st round of the playoff's and will now face a rested team that will need to jump the ball quickly or they will be on the outside looking in.  I really like how the Raven's defense fair's against the Titans and how the Chargers match up against the Pitts.  Raven's has IMO the best defense in the league.  Chargers has one of the best offenses in the league that can score on any defense.  Can't wait for week 2.   

Great info - I think this week's games are especially intriguing since they are all regular-season rematches...

Good info!  Another consideration is still rest/injuries ... especially think this is important in the SD/Pitts rematch.  While Big Ben gets a week to recover, SD had a tough game and some injuries.  Still a major consideration for teams with bye week.