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My 89 most important NFL handicapping trends (Week 9)

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Thread Starter My 89 most important NFL handicapping trends (Week 9)
RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 15360
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Falcons @ Panthers (-7.5) -- 1 p.m.

First time Panthers favored over Falcons since 2008. Most points Panthers favored over Falcons since 1997.

Panthers covered by 58 points combined the last three games

Teams Carolina have defeated this season: 6-24 SU combined

The next game after a loss: Atlanta 22-5 ATS last 27
Off a loss of 6 or more points: 16-1 ATS last 17

Away underdog off away loss: 64% since 2003

Falcons: least passing yards per game in the NFL

Cam Newton in one-score games: 2-14 SU in career

When line opened in May, Falcons favored by 1.

Vikings @ Cowboys (-10) -- 1 p.m.

Dallas 7-1 ATS this season

First time Cowboys double digit favorite in nearly two years (11/6/2011)

Cowboys have covered only 6 of 22 games as a home favorite

Underdog has covered 71% of Dallas games (40-16 ATS the last 4 seasons)

Tony Romo has won 21 of 25 games (SU) in November

Cowboys: 2nd highest percentage of TDs scored in the Red Zone.

Cowboys +4 turnovers last week.
Historically, NFL teams +4 in turnovers covers 93% of the time with an average ATS margin of +15. Dallas was outgained by 350 yards last week, and underperformed ATS by 13 points. Outgained by a total of 650 yards on the season.

Dallas +9 turnover margin this season (2nd best in NFL)

Play at New Orleans next week

Saints @ Jets (+6) -- 1 p.m.

Jets: 3rd biggest home underdog for NYJ since 2007

Any underdog who lost by 30 or more last week: 61% since 1990

Jets: -12 turnover over margin worst in league (tied with Giants)

Saints have covered 13 of 15 regular season games under Payton

Saints: (Last 7 seasons): Saints have covered 62% of games at home
but less than half their games on the road

Saints as a road favorite: 6-12 ATS last 18 under Coach Payton

Saints: Give up most yards per rush attempt than any time in the NFL

Saints favored by 3.5 in this game before last week’s games (likely overreaction)

Titans @ Rams (+3) -- 1 p.m.

Jeff Fisher as a underdog: 88-57 ATS (61%) in his coaching career

First game against old team (Tennessee) for Coach Fischer

Road Favorite off a bye: 45-13 ATS (78% last 13 seasons)

Bye week may be extra helpful to injured QB Locker

Chiefs @ Bills (+3) -- 1 p.m.

Only 2nd time in 25 years that an 8-0 team playing a team with a losing record is not favored by MORE than a field goal.

KC schedule strength in question: defeated only one team with a winning record (Cowboys)

ESPN has KC ranked #1 . . . Vegas has KC tied for 9th

Chiefs worst in turnover margin last season. Best this season.

Bills last 33 games: lost against the spread by a NET 142 points combined

The week AFTER playing the Saints, teams are 46-81 ATS (36% since 2005)

Alex Smith last 34 games as a starter: 28-5-1 SU

KC defense gives up second smallest percentage of TDs in Red Zone.

Only two teams worse on offense (per play) than Bills (tied with Pats)

Buffalo 4-0 ATS at home.

Chargers @ Redskins (pk) -- 1 p.m.

Only 2 teams with better offense (per play) than San Diego
but Chargers have the worst defense (per play)

3rd East Coast trip for San Diego this season – but Chargers are off bye.

Eagles @ Raiders (-2.5) – 4:05 p.m.


Raiders as a favorite: 5-19 ATS

Teams favored week after playing Mike Tomlin’s Steelers: 13-33 against the spread.

Eagles: No offensive TDs the last TWO games.

Eagles: 8th best net yards per play in NFL

Only Jacksonville worse than Philly for percentage of TDs scored in the Red Zone.

Raiders: least passing yards per game in NFL.

Favorite in Raiders games: 11-4 ATS last 15

Buccaneers @ Seahawks (-16) – 4:05 p.m.

Biggest underdog for Tampa Bay since 1996

Second biggest favorite ever for Seattle (data back to 1978)

Seattle: 16-6 ATS overall last 22

Winless underdogs (week 6 or later): 62% ATS (since 1992)

Seattle (starting in 2005): 69% ATS at home (49-22-1)
On road during same period: 39% (29-45-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 94-51-2 (65% winners)

Tampa 20-12 ATS on the road

Bucs have lost 12 straight games when opponent has not rested starters

Seattle plays at Atlanta next week.

Seattle outgained 339 to 135 yards vs. Rams last week.

Ravens @ Browns (+2.5) -- 4:25 p.m

Ravens smallest favorite over Browns since 2008

Any Road Favorite off a bye: 45-13 ATS (78% last 13 seasons)

Off last 22 losses, Ravens won the next game 19 times (SU)

Baltimore 11-0 SU (9-2 ATS) under Harbaugh with greater than 7 days rest.

Flacco 11-0 SU vs. Browns in career

Only 4 teams worse than Baltimore (net yards per play)

Browns: Tied for best defense (per play)
Browns defense yielding 27 points per game last 4 games

Browns winless when QB Hoyer does not start.

Home team has covered 5 of 6 Ravens games

Baltimore defense gives up smallest percentage of TDs in Red Zone.

Baltimore: least yards per rushing attempt in NFL

Steelers @ Patriots (-6.5) -- 4:25 p.m.

Steelers have not been a bigger underdog with Big Ben at QB since 2007

New England has won 34 of 37 regular season home games (SU)

Pats outgained yardage-wise on season

Only two teams worse on offense (per play) than Pats (tied with Bills)
Only Tampa Bay has gained less yards per pass attempt than Patriots.

Any Away underdog off away loss: 64% since 2003

SNF: Colts @ Texans (+2.5) – 8:30 p.m.

Road Favorite off a bye: 45-13 ATS (78% last 13 seasons)

Based on Vegas power rankings: Colts have defeated the 3 best teams in the NFL (Denver, Seattle, San Fran)

Colts outgained each of last 3 games, by over 300 yards total

ESPN has Indy ranked 3rd
Vegas has Indy ranked 11th

Houston 6th best per play differential
Colts: 17th best per play differential

Houston: 3rd worst turnover margin in NFL

Houston defense gives up second highest percentage of TDs in Red Zone.
Offensive scores only 29th highest percentage of TDs in Red Zone.

Both teams off bye: may hurt hot Indy; may help cold Houston

Colts/Texans: Home team has covered 6 straight in series.

MNF: Bears @ Packers (-10.5) – 8:40 p.m.

Bears: only 4th time greater than 10-point underdogs in last 10 seasons.

Bears: Covered only 1 game this season.

Home team in Packers games have covered 13 of 15 ATS

GB: 33-11 ATS in Division (12 of last 13 ATS)

Packers best offense in NFL per play
and best “yards per play” differential in NFL

Chicago: Giving up most yards per pass attempt in league

RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegas
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TLF18
Joined: 10/18/2013
Posts: 439
All American
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posted a thread asking, but in case someone sees this first...

anyone have the exact stat for "teams after playing the Seahawks" ATS records the following week?

RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 15360
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RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegas
Monday: Join Pregame FREE and get $25 to spend any way you want - no obligation.

NickTheStick11
Joined: 10/28/2013
Posts: 161
College Recruit
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they had all lost this season until the cardinals last week.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CFB75058.33150.00
MLB157168.18751.00
NBA76053.8540.00
NFL98052.94-25.00
NHL2316158.97488.00
NickTheStick11
Joined: 10/28/2013
Posts: 161
College Recruit
Not Ranked

RJ Should put wear he is leaning on all of these stats, does a good job of arguing both sides but no definitive picks.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CFB75058.33150.00
MLB157168.18751.00
NBA76053.8540.00
NFL98052.94-25.00
NHL2316158.97488.00
RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 15360
Rank NA
Top 25 Contributor

I might have a way with the data, but I learned a long time ago the Pros are much better at picking games!

RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegas
Monday: Join Pregame FREE and get $25 to spend any way you want - no obligation.

rob0721
Joined: 01/05/2010
Posts: 6107
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This is true

RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 15360
Rank NA
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Gameday bump

RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegas
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