Falcons @ Panthers (-7.5) -- 1 p.m.First time Panthers favored over Falcons since 2008. Most points Panthers favored over Falcons since 1997.Panthers covered by 58 points combined the last three gamesTeams Carolina have defeated this season: 6-24 SU combinedThe next game after a loss: Atlanta 22-5 ATS last 27Off a loss of 6 or more points: 16-1 ATS last 17Away underdog off away loss: 64% since 2003Falcons: least passing yards per game in the NFLCam Newton in one-score games: 2-14 SU in careerWhen line opened in May, Falcons favored by 1.
Vikings @ Cowboys (-10) -- 1 p.m.Dallas 7-1 ATS this seasonFirst time Cowboys double digit favorite in nearly two years (11/6/2011)Cowboys have covered only 6 of 22 games as a home favoriteUnderdog has covered 71% of Dallas games (40-16 ATS the last 4 seasons)Tony Romo has won 21 of 25 games (SU) in NovemberCowboys: 2nd highest percentage of TDs scored in the Red Zone.Cowboys +4 turnovers last week.Historically, NFL teams +4 in turnovers covers 93% of the time with an average ATS margin of +15. Dallas was outgained by 350 yards last week, and underperformed ATS by 13 points. Outgained by a total of 650 yards on the season. Dallas +9 turnover margin this season (2nd best in NFL)Play at New Orleans next weekSaints @ Jets (+6) -- 1 p.m.Jets: 3rd biggest home underdog for NYJ since 2007Any underdog who lost by 30 or more last week: 61% since 1990Jets: -12 turnover over margin worst in league (tied with Giants)Saints have covered 13 of 15 regular season games under PaytonSaints: (Last 7 seasons): Saints have covered 62% of games at homebut less than half their games on the roadSaints as a road favorite: 6-12 ATS last 18 under Coach PaytonSaints: Give up most yards per rush attempt than any time in the NFLSaints favored by 3.5 in this game before last week’s games (likely overreaction)
Titans @ Rams (+3) -- 1 p.m.Jeff Fisher as a underdog: 88-57 ATS (61%) in his coaching careerFirst game against old team (Tennessee) for Coach FischerRoad Favorite off a bye: 45-13 ATS (78% last 13 seasons)Bye week may be extra helpful to injured QB LockerChiefs @ Bills (+3) -- 1 p.m.Only 2nd time in 25 years that an 8-0 team playing a team with a losing record is not favored by MORE than a field goal. KC schedule strength in question: defeated only one team with a winning record (Cowboys)ESPN has KC ranked #1 . . . Vegas has KC tied for 9thChiefs worst in turnover margin last season. Best this season. Bills last 33 games: lost against the spread by a NET 142 points combinedThe week AFTER playing the Saints, teams are 46-81 ATS (36% since 2005)Alex Smith last 34 games as a starter: 28-5-1 SUKC defense gives up second smallest percentage of TDs in Red Zone.Only two teams worse on offense (per play) than Bills (tied with Pats)Buffalo 4-0 ATS at home.
Chargers @ Redskins (pk) -- 1 p.m.Only 2 teams with better offense (per play) than San Diegobut Chargers have the worst defense (per play)3rd East Coast trip for San Diego this season – but Chargers are off bye. Eagles @ Raiders (-2.5) – 4:05 p.m.Raiders as a favorite: 5-19 ATSTeams favored week after playing Mike Tomlin’s Steelers: 13-33 against the spread.Eagles: No offensive TDs the last TWO games.Eagles: 8th best net yards per play in NFLOnly Jacksonville worse than Philly for percentage of TDs scored in the Red Zone.Raiders: least passing yards per game in NFL.Favorite in Raiders games: 11-4 ATS last 15
Buccaneers @ Seahawks (-16) – 4:05 p.m.Biggest underdog for Tampa Bay since 1996Second biggest favorite ever for Seattle (data back to 1978)Seattle: 16-6 ATS overall last 22Winless underdogs (week 6 or later): 62% ATS (since 1992)Seattle (starting in 2005): 69% ATS at home (49-22-1)On road during same period: 39% (29-45-1)If simply play on at home, against on road: 94-51-2 (65% winners)Tampa 20-12 ATS on the roadBucs have lost 12 straight games when opponent has not rested startersSeattle plays at Atlanta next week. Seattle outgained 339 to 135 yards vs. Rams last week.
Ravens @ Browns (+2.5) -- 4:25 p.mRavens smallest favorite over Browns since 2008Any Road Favorite off a bye: 45-13 ATS (78% last 13 seasons)Off last 22 losses, Ravens won the next game 19 times (SU)Baltimore 11-0 SU (9-2 ATS) under Harbaugh with greater than 7 days rest.Flacco 11-0 SU vs. Browns in careerOnly 4 teams worse than Baltimore (net yards per play)Browns: Tied for best defense (per play)Browns defense yielding 27 points per game last 4 gamesBrowns winless when QB Hoyer does not start.Home team has covered 5 of 6 Ravens gamesBaltimore defense gives up smallest percentage of TDs in Red Zone.Baltimore: least yards per rushing attempt in NFLSteelers @ Patriots (-6.5) -- 4:25 p.m.
Steelers have not been a bigger underdog with Big Ben at QB since 2007New England has won 34 of 37 regular season home games (SU)Pats outgained yardage-wise on seasonOnly two teams worse on offense (per play) than Pats (tied with Bills)Only Tampa Bay has gained less yards per pass attempt than Patriots.Any Away underdog off away loss: 64% since 2003SNF: Colts @ Texans (+2.5) – 8:30 p.m.Road Favorite off a bye: 45-13 ATS (78% last 13 seasons)Based on Vegas power rankings: Colts have defeated the 3 best teams in the NFL (Denver, Seattle, San Fran)Colts outgained each of last 3 games, by over 300 yards totalESPN has Indy ranked 3rdVegas has Indy ranked 11thHouston 6th best per play differential Colts: 17th best per play differential Houston: 3rd worst turnover margin in NFLHouston defense gives up second highest percentage of TDs in Red Zone.Offensive scores only 29th highest percentage of TDs in Red Zone.Both teams off bye: may hurt hot Indy; may help cold HoustonColts/Texans: Home team has covered 6 straight in series.MNF: Bears @ Packers (-10.5) – 8:40 p.m.Bears: only 4th time greater than 10-point underdogs in last 10 seasons.Bears: Covered only 1 game this season.Home team in Packers games have covered 13 of 15 ATSGB: 33-11 ATS in Division (12 of last 13 ATS)Packers best offense in NFL per playand best “yards per play” differential in NFLChicago: Giving up most yards per pass attempt in league
RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegasSunday: My Pro Bettor Dream Podcast - NFL Week 12 Deep Dive
posted a thread asking, but in case someone sees this first...
anyone have the exact stat for "teams after playing the Seahawks" ATS records the following week?
they had all lost this season until the cardinals last week.
RJ Should put wear he is leaning on all of these stats, does a good job of arguing both sides but no definitive picks.
I might have a way with the data, but I learned a long time ago the Pros are much better at picking games!
This is true