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Betting against opening week line moves (8-3 73%)

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Thread Starter Betting against opening week line moves (8-3 73%)
Bryan Leonard
Joined: 09/02/2011
Posts: 2087
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Top 500 Contributor

I wrote an article before preseason began regarding a successful approach I use in handicapping the opening week of football. Basically I write down every current NFL spread and total before the first preseason game kicks off. I then compare that number to the current line before the opening week games are played. If there is a spread move of 2 points or more I fade that move. The reason is simple, the public tends to overreact to what happens in the preseason. Games in which starters play limited minutes and each coach has different goals in the game. For example Atlanta plays to evaluate players, while new coaching staffs like Cleveland's play to win, in order to instill a winning attitude. By playing starters longer than their opponents the Browns were one team that took money based on preseason play. 

Overall going against these line moves proved profitable again with an 8-3 73% mark. The key game in which the line moves ended up being correct came in the Arizona/St Louis contest in which the Rams moved from -6 to -3 1/2 with the total going from 40 to 43. St Louis won that game 27-24. 

But other than that contest we saw many games in which the line moves were just wrong. New England from 7 to 10, Tampa Bay from 1 1/2 to 4, Cleveland from +1 1/2 to -2, Indianapolis from -7 to -11, Houston from -3 to -5 1/2. Some games involved quarterback changes, but once again their was an overreaction as Buffalo, the NY Jets and Oakland all had questionable starters at those positions to begin with.

The key point to remember here is that what you see in the preseason should be highly discounted. The intensity of a regular season game isn't there and every squad has different priorities. Keep that in mind next season when the Hall of Fame game comes around.

The Only Two Time Finalist in The $90,000 Cantor Football Showdown

Winner of the 2013 Gaming Today Brawl For It All Football Contest

Money management, line shopping and reading the betting markets are just as important as picking the right side.

Follow me on Twitter @BLeonardSports for interesting articles and late minute bets

Nicks_Picks
Joined: 12/31/2011
Posts: 266
College Varsity
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Thanks Leonard for this Analysis!! Very informative, hopefully I can remember this next year!

voodoo
Joined: 10/19/2011
Posts: 2592
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Very interesting Bryan, thanks..

NFL WK4 Top Tease Selections Thread Located HERE (opens in new tab)

JasonH11
Joined: 09/16/2012
Posts: 1154
Pro Draft Prospect
Top 500 Contributor

Great info Bryan. Thank You.  Some how I need to store all of the information I get on this website from both the pro's and other members of the forums in a way that I can go back and make better bets.  You learn so much on here but I find myself on the wrong side of a game only to remember a piece of information mentioned here only to have forgotten it.

Bryan Leonard
Joined: 09/02/2011
Posts: 2087
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Thanks Jason,

Maybe the powers that be can add a favorite button to each post that appears in a certain area of the site in which you personally have full access when clicked upon. I know I would like something like that because it's impossible to remember all the solid posts I read on this site.

The Only Two Time Finalist in The $90,000 Cantor Football Showdown

Winner of the 2013 Gaming Today Brawl For It All Football Contest

Money management, line shopping and reading the betting markets are just as important as picking the right side.

Follow me on Twitter @BLeonardSports for interesting articles and late minute bets

DubV
Joined: 08/29/2011
Posts: 8688
All Pro
Top 75 Contributor

Bry- Just email me if you are looking for a specific link to one of my posts and I can help you out. Also when will your Golden Nugget GOY tickets be posted?

Bryan Leonard
Joined: 09/02/2011
Posts: 2087
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

DubV,

Gave them to RJ 3 weeks ago. It's out of my hands now, but I've been posting the week to week bets here in the forum. 2-1 on the season with Iowa +4 this week.

The Only Two Time Finalist in The $90,000 Cantor Football Showdown

Winner of the 2013 Gaming Today Brawl For It All Football Contest

Money management, line shopping and reading the betting markets are just as important as picking the right side.

Follow me on Twitter @BLeonardSports for interesting articles and late minute bets

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