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superbowl props, soft local - please advise

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Thread Starter superbowl props, soft local - please advise
jojomonkey
Joined: 02/17/2009
Posts: 516
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be on the lookout for soft local props!!!

in my particular case, local just released props and as im looking them over i notice some are especially soft, most noteably in the comparison recieving yards dept.  where everyone, ie. crabtree/boldin/pitta/davis/smith/ moss are basically -110 - with no yardage handicap, ie.

"MOST RECEIVING YARDS?   BOLDIN VS MOSS:  MOSS -110 / BOLDIN -110

 in this dept, offshores arent exactly in agreement on every matchup yards wise either ...

RJ posted this on Receiving Yards:

Michael Crabtree: o/u 84.5
Anquan Boldin: o/u 70.5
Torrey Smith: o/u 64.5
Vernon Davis: o/u 50.5
Dennis Pitta: o/u 44.5
Randy Moss: o/u 36.5

in general the biggest discrepancies are:  crabtree/pitta, boldin/moss, smith/moss

now, what should i do...i figure i have the following options:

a)  house these
b)  lay usual 1-3units
c)  bring this to the attention of local

*parlays arent allowed.
*unsure if local looks at actual bets or how much action he takes

 - im torn, dont want to ruin relationship/get cutoff...so leaning b

any forum advice would be appreciated .

thanks and goodluck. Yes


 edited

Don't throw dung at me and tell me it is raining brown, solid water.

shackfu99
Joined: 11/01/2011
Posts: 2882
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Top 200 Contributor

I assume your local is on line?

He is just paying for a service and doesn't set lines. I have 2 on line locals and they cant change the lines. They have nothing to do with that. They just manage their cash flow.

You can bet your ass he is looking at how much action he is taking.  Esp this weekend.

Who is basically -110 on each side? Pinny , SB and 5D are all over the place.  

I would find each players median for the year, figure the no vig and then hammer his off #'s.

ex:  Pinny has Moss o/u  34.5  -131/+112. With a no vig of +/-120. If your guy is 33.5 but -145/+125 then his juice is soft. You cant really put a value on what 1 rec yrd is worth.

Ask yourself. Say you like the Wizards -3 and your guy has -2. Would you call him? I wouldn't , I would up my wager on the -2.

Good luck this weekend jojo. I hope you hammer him.

@studentofSNL

@thanksTHEGAME

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Marine biologists studying Australian dolphins discovered that the mammals form complex hierarchies within their pods in order to attack other groups. Some individuals serve as fighters. Others serve as liaisons to go out and recruit new members. These "intricate webs" are rare in the animal kingdom, says Virginia Morell at Wired, and strikingly reminiscent of "the Mafia."

I blame Snoop Dog.

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jojomonkey
Joined: 02/17/2009
Posts: 516
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thanks for your response shackfu!

i wasnt clear enough and have edited my post:

NO YARDAGE handicap!  - just straight up who will have more yards!

these are the best bets:   crabtree/pitta  boldin/moss, smith/moss

   -  thats +40, +34, +28 yards each!!

yes, its online. im sure he will be looking at the action, but i dont know how many players he has or whether or not he will look to see what bets were made after the fact.

my fear is, if i go too big or waaay larger than i ordinarily do then ill be stiffed or cut off ....if the wagers arent just cancelled outright anyway

Don't throw dung at me and tell me it is raining brown, solid water.

shackfu99
Joined: 11/01/2011
Posts: 2882
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Top 200 Contributor

oh h2h. You know thats one prop I am not really sure what the sharp plays are? The folks I follow dont play those props. I play a few of them in NBA but thats it. i will reach out and see if I can get you sharp advice.

@studentofSNL

Gangster dolphins
Marine biologists studying Australian dolphins discovered that the mammals form complex hierarchies within their pods in order to attack other groups. Some individuals serve as fighters. Others serve as liaisons to go out and recruit new members. These "intricate webs" are rare in the animal kingdom, says Virginia Morell at Wired, and strikingly reminiscent of "the Mafia."

I blame Snoop Dog.

"I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself” WinstonChurchill

nashfor3
Joined: 06/13/2011
Posts: 51
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Hells yeah, hammer Boldin, Crabtree and Smith in those matchups you list.

bosoxfan82b
Joined: 06/17/2008
Posts: 138
College Recruit
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I would definitely bet them and then let him know...fezzik was saying that earlier this week and I actually did that once this year..."you are trying to beat him, not cheat him!" Make the bet then make him aware (I guess he could cancel after you make him aware so depends on your relationship).  I posted in here before conf champ that my local had all 4 teams remaining at such good + money that I bet so I couldn't lose.  Made my max bets (which wasn't much) and then called him and told him.  He let me keep them and said thanks for letting him know and he's gonna give me a free roll on a SB bet.  Guess it depends on your relationship and if you want to screw him or not.

cbelongia
Joined: 09/12/2009
Posts: 2881
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I have Vernon Davis at o/u 55 1/2

I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards! CBB '10-'11 (5-11) MLB 2011 45-43-2
jojomonkey
Joined: 02/17/2009
Posts: 516
All American
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thanks for the responses guys.

i think im going to max the following:

- boldin vs moss:  boldin

- smith vs moss:  smith

- crabtree vs pitta:  crabtree

- - although i wouldnt classify this a "good money management"   its in these 3 matchups i have the biggest edge  

if moss catches a bomb i could be fd.

if anyone has additional advice please add...

good luck to everybody today!

Don't throw dung at me and tell me it is raining brown, solid water.

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