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Thread Starter NFL Vegas Rankings - Dedicated Thread for Week 9
RJ_Bell
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Posted
on Tue, Oct 30 2012 8:12 AM

Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provide Pregame.com with their private power rankings. These numbers literally influence the worldwide sports betting market and together form the Vegas Rankings. Four categories convey what the “experts in the desert” truthfully think about the teams:

TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.

HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team’s home field.

BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.

POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.

To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:

Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).
To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:

Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power, which includes Bettor Bias, the same way the actual Vegas line does. 

NFL Vegas Rankings – Week 9

 

 

Hm

TRUE

Bettor

Spread

1

Texans

3

100

0.5

100.5

t2

49ers

3.5

99.5

1.5

101

t2

Giants

1

99.5

1

100.5

t4

Falcons

3.5

99

1

100

t4

Packers

3.5

99

0.5

99.5

t4

Patriots

3

99

1.5

100.5

7

Broncos

3

98.5

1

99.5

t8

Bears

3

97

0

97

t8

Steelers

3.5

97

1

98

10

Ravens

3.5

96.5

0.5

97

11

Cowboys

2

95.5

0.5

96

12

Eagles

2.5

95

0

95

13

Seahawks

4

94

0

94

t14

Chargers

3

93.5

0

93.5

t14

Lions

3.5

93.5

0

93.5

t16

Dolphins

2

93

0

93

t16

Saints

3.5

93

0

93

18

Redskins

2

92.5

0.5

93

t19

Bengals

2

92

0

92

t19

Panthers

2

92

0

92

t21

Cardinals

3.5

91.5

0

91.5

t21

Vikings

2.5

91.5

0

91.5

t23

Buccs

2

91

0

91

t23

Jets

3

91

0

91

25

Bills

3.5

90.5

0

90.5

26

Raiders

2.5

89.5

0

89.5

27

Rams

3

89

0

89

t28

Browns

3

88.5

0

88.5

t28

Colts

3

88.5

0

88.5

t28

Titans

2

88.5

0

88.5

t31

Chiefs

2.5

86.5

-1

85.5

t31

Jags

2

86.5

-1.5

85

Vegas Rankings voters include Steve Fezzik (the only 2-time Hilton Contest Champion), Chris Andrews (with over 30 years of Nevada bookmaking experience), and “Vegas Runner” (featured by ESPN, CBS This Morning, and CNBC for his professional betting success).

RJ Bell is the founder of Pregame.com. Follow on twitter: @RJinVegas

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RJ_Bell
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Posted
on Tue, Oct 30 2012 8:06 AM

Chris Andrews Personal Rankings (@AndrewsSports)

Texans 99 3
Packers 98 3.5
Patriots 98 2.5
Giants 98 0
49ers 97.5 3.5
Falcons 97 3
Ravens 96 3.5
Broncos 96 3
Bears 95 3
Steelers 94.5 4
Cowboys 94 1
Dolphins 93 2
Lions 92 3.5
Seahawks 92 4.5
Redskins 92 2
Eagles 91.5 2.5
Saints 91.5 3.5
Vikings 91 2.5
Bucs 90.5 2
Chargers 90 3.5
Bills 90 3.5
Jets 90 3
Bengals 90 2
Panthers 90 2
Titans 89 2
Cardinals 89 3.5
Rams 89 3
Colts 89 3
Raiders 89 2.5
Browns 89 3
Jaguars 86 2
Chiefs 85 2

---

RJ Bell: Best Bets | Free Picks | My Posts |My Blog |@Twitter
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RJ_Bell
RJ_Bell
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Posted
on Tue, Oct 30 2012 8:08 AM

Vegas Runner's Personal Rankings (@VegasRunner)

HOUSTON 3 100
SAN FRAN 3 99
ATLANTA 4 99
NY GIANTS 3 98.5
NEW ENGLAND 3.5 98
GREEN BAY 3.5 98
DENVER 3 97
PITTSBURGH 3 97
CHICAGO 3 97
PHILADELPHIA 3 96
BALTIMORE 3 96
DETROIT 3 95
SEATTLE 3.5 94.5
ARIZONA 3 94
DALLAS 2.5 94
MINNESOTA 2.5 93
SAN DIEGO 2 93
MIAMI 2 92.5
TAMPA BAY 2.5 92
WASHINGTON 2.5 91
NEW ORLEANS 4 91
CINCINNATI 2.5 90.5
NY JETS 3 90
CAROLINA 2.5 89.5
TENNESSEE 2.5 89
ST LOUIS 2.5 89
INDIANAPOLIS 2 88
BUFFALO 3 88
OAKLAND 2.5 86
CLEVELAND 2.5 86
KANSAS CITY 3 85
JACKSONVILLE 2 84

---

RJ Bell: Best Bets | Free Picks | My Posts |My Blog |@Twitter
Called a "True Insider" by ESPN
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coomod
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Posted
on Tue, Oct 30 2012 8:12 AM

RJ can you double-check your numbers.  The True Power + Bettor Bias are not adding up to the point spread power. For example, the Texans should add up to 100.5 not 101. The Jags should be 85 based on your formula. Thanks.
RJ_Bell
RJ_Bell
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Posted
on Tue, Oct 30 2012 8:28 AM

Great catch, coomod . . . corrected now . . . I swaped the normalizing column to 100 in the spread sheet with bettor bias. Much appreciated!

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RJ Bell: Best Bets | Free Picks | My Posts |My Blog |@Twitter
Called a "True Insider" by ESPN
Pick Virgins: $25 FREE! Buyers: 10% rebate!
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RJ_Bell
RJ_Bell
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Posted
on Tue, Oct 30 2012 8:29 AM

CFB Rankings here: pregame.com/.../394920.aspx

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RJ Bell: Best Bets | Free Picks | My Posts |My Blog |@Twitter
Called a "True Insider" by ESPN
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