Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provide Pregame.com with their private power rankings. These numbers literally influence the worldwide sports betting market and together form the Vegas Rankings. Four categories convey what the “experts in the desert” truthfully think about the teams:TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team’s home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.
To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:
Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:
Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power, which includes Bettor Bias, the same way the actual Vegas line does.
NFL Vegas Rankings – Week 6
Vegas Rankings voters include Steve Fezzik (the only 2-time Hilton Contest Champion), Chris Andrews (with over 30 years of Nevada bookmaking experience), and “Vegas Runner” (featured by ESPN, CBS This Morning, and CNBC for his professional betting success).RJ Bell is the founder of Pregame.com - Follow on twitter: @RJinVegas.
---RJ Bell: Best Bets | Free Picks | My Posts |My Blog |@TwitterCalled a "True Insider" by ESPNPick Virgins: $25 FREE! Buyers: 10% rebate!I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!
Chris Andrew's Private RatingsFollow on twitter: @AndrewsSports
Vegas Runner's Private RatingsFollow on twitter: @VegasRunner
how can the jets have a home field adv of 3 but the giants only 1? They play in the same stadium. Is that saying the jets fans are 3 times louder than giants fans in the same stadium?
This is coming from a Giants fan that has been to many Giants and Jets games. Absolutely the Jets fans are louder. One bad pass from Eli and Giants fans start booing. It's embarrassing.
The Seahawks are below 2 teams they beat and have a better record then both of them! GB and Dallas!
I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!
Is there any added value to a team coming off a bye? It seems teams coming off a bye play above their typical level for at least that one week. I haven't done any deep research or a math model, but perhaps 1/2 to 1 point added?
For example, BAL is currently favored by -4.5 per the power rankings. Given DAL coming off a bye week would it be reasonable to drop it to -4 or -3.5?
Thanks for this RJ. I'm sure it helps many people.
Personally I don't bet on single games all that often, but I am involved in a "Spreads" pool that has spreads set on Tuesday that don't change. Using this allows me to identify what the spread "should" be, and then coupled with line moves towards the end of the week shows where there's value. Considering going 55% for the season usually wins you the pool, that small piece of value can be the difference.
For those interested, here's what the lines "should" be according to these Vegas experts for week 6.
AWAY HOME SHOULD BE SPREAD
Pittsburgh TENNESSEE +7.5
Cincinnati CLEVELAND +3
Oakland ATLANTA -11
St Louis MIAMI -4
Indianapolis NY JETS -4.5
Dallas BALTIMORE -5
Detroit PHILADELPHIA -7.5
Kansas City TAMPA BAY -4
Buffalo ARIZONA -5.5
New England SEATTLE +3
NY Giants SAN FRANCISCO -6
Minnesota WASHINGTON -1.5
Green Bay HOUSTON -6
Denver SAN DIEGO -3