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Thread Starter Q. for Bryan re: Bears/Cowboys prop bet/others welcome
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Scottydog
Joined: 11/12/2011
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I know you play a lot of prop bets and in the Bears/Cowboy vid for tonight's game you suggest a props bet on total sacks might be a profitable angle. Currently I see the line at over 5 (-140), under 5 (+110) at Sportsbook. 

I'm curious if you see any correlation between total sacks to total punts. It would seem that if a team is getting sacked a lot, it's likely that they're punting a lot too. However, with that said, Dallas isn't punting much at all, only 11 so far in 3 games and Chicago has 15. The OU on this is over 8.5 (-160), under 8.5 is (+130).

Any thoughts on this?

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Bryan Leonard
Joined: 09/02/2011
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Woud much rather have Sacks over than punts over. Sacks also lead to fumbles which don't help you with punts. Dallas is a big play offense which is why they don't punt a great deal. Big plays and turnovers, that's the Dallas MO.

The Only Two Time Finalist in The $90,000 Cantor Football Showdown.

Money management, line shopping and reading the betting markets are just as important as picking the right side.

Follow me on Twitter @BLeonardSports for interesting articles and late minute bets

Bryan Leonard
Joined: 09/02/2011
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Would much rather have Sacks over than punts over. Sacks also lead to fumbles which don't help you with punts. Dallas is a big play offense which is why they don't punt a great deal. Big plays and turnovers, that's the Dallas MO.

The Only Two Time Finalist in The $90,000 Cantor Football Showdown.

Money management, line shopping and reading the betting markets are just as important as picking the right side.

Follow me on Twitter @BLeonardSports for interesting articles and late minute bets

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Scottydog
Joined: 11/12/2011
Posts: 2978
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I know you play a lot of prop bets and in the Bears/Cowboy vid for tonight's game you suggest a props bet on total sacks might be a profitable angle. Currently I see the line at over 5 (-140), under 5 (+110) at Sportsbook. 

I'm curious if you see any correlation between total sacks to total punts. It would seem that if a team is getting sacked a lot, it's likely that they're punting a lot too. However, with that said, Dallas isn't punting much at all, only 11 so far in 3 games and Chicago has 15. The OU on this is over 8.5 (-160), under 8.5 is (+130).

Any thoughts on this?

Bryan Leonard
Joined: 09/02/2011
Posts: 1400
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Woud much rather have Sacks over than punts over. Sacks also lead to fumbles which don't help you with punts. Dallas is a big play offense which is why they don't punt a great deal. Big plays and turnovers, that's the Dallas MO.

The Only Two Time Finalist in The $90,000 Cantor Football Showdown.

Money management, line shopping and reading the betting markets are just as important as picking the right side.

Follow me on Twitter @BLeonardSports for interesting articles and late minute bets

Bryan Leonard
Joined: 09/02/2011
Posts: 1400
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Would much rather have Sacks over than punts over. Sacks also lead to fumbles which don't help you with punts. Dallas is a big play offense which is why they don't punt a great deal. Big plays and turnovers, that's the Dallas MO.

The Only Two Time Finalist in The $90,000 Cantor Football Showdown.

Money management, line shopping and reading the betting markets are just as important as picking the right side.

Follow me on Twitter @BLeonardSports for interesting articles and late minute bets

Scottydog
Joined: 11/12/2011
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thanks - There's so many prop bets on each game it's hard to know which ones to pay attention to.

Lloyd Christmas
Joined: 07/22/2009
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1) look at prop prices at sharper books

2) calculate no vig line

3) bet off lines at non sharp books

4) count your money

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a bitch, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

Scottydog
Joined: 11/12/2011
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Count my money? That's not something I get to do very often! LOL

Bryan Leonard
Joined: 09/02/2011
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Lloyd,

What do you consider the sharper books for props?

The Only Two Time Finalist in The $90,000 Cantor Football Showdown.

Money management, line shopping and reading the betting markets are just as important as picking the right side.

Follow me on Twitter @BLeonardSports for interesting articles and late minute bets

Bruno Bets
Joined: 11/08/2011
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Ain't nobody gonna stop Ware tonight, IMO.

Bruno Bets's last 7 days record in MLB ,NBA ,NHL
SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB4448247.83-370.00
NBA27022.22-574.00
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-JB-
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Props?.....look at Pinny. Cris i would assume would have the better close however?

 

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Lloyd Christmas
Joined: 07/22/2009
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-JB-

Props?.....look at Pinny. Cris i would assume would have the better close however?

Pinny doesn't offer many football props

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a bitch, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

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