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How much risk is there for fixed games with replacement refs?

NFL
Thread Starter How much risk is there for fixed games with replacement refs?
RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
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Facts about corruption:
Historically, the motivation for gambling corruption is financial gain.
The deterrence is the consequence of being caught.
In professional football, a large portion of that deterrence
involves the potential loss of astronomical compensation (for players)
or the loss of a long career of generous compensation (for union officials)
Thus, for many decades, the economics of game corruption
was unable to reasonable tempt any participant who could actually affect the game's outcome.
Replacement officials most certainly could affect the game's outcome;
at the same time, their expected career earnings in the NFL are quite modest
(i.e., once the regular refs settle, they will stop making money from the NFL)
Does this mean that any of the replacement officials are corrupt? Absolutely not.
But it certainly deserves to be discussed that for the first time in the modern era of the NFL
there are decision-makers on the field who could make more financially by fixing a game
than they would be risking financially if they were caught.

What do you think?

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RJ_Bell
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Mathematical Effect of Replacement Refs:

Read here:

pregame.com/.../368746.aspx

RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegas
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spartan
Joined: 06/21/2006
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Wow, I was just talking with a friend about that very subject. I personally think there is substantial cause for concern. Here you might have a guy of modest means knowing he will likely soon be replaced and never get near an NFL game again unless he's in the stands as a spectator. If he is of borderline integrity and approached with what seems to him an astronomical sum by a convincing operator I can see it happening. I'm certain it's a subject the league office does not even want brought to the surface. Hell yes, I can see it.

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m00coyne
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I heard about this early today and it would seem to make sense to do.  However, these refs have a hard time making calls sometimes, it would be nearly impossible for them to play off blowing it.

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igglez
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absolutely, i just hope i'm on the side they're fixing.

Greg Shaker
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It has been my experience that college football officials have extreme integrity and so I would think concern for this would be minimal. Although I would hope to be wrong in some ways since I personally would most likely be on the fixed side.

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The Game
Joined: 10/19/2010
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Who knows about the corruption angle but the professional angle leaves a lot to be desired.

LeSean McCoy said on the radio:

"They're like fans. I'll be honest, they're like fans. One of the refs was talking about his fantasy team and said, 'McCoy, come on, I need you for my fantasy team,'  Uhhh, what?"  

"I mean really, I don't see why you people just can't watch the horses run around the track and not bet on them."

purks
Joined: 02/14/2012
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The Olympics even saw players betting against themselves due to poor income... So far they look like they're really trying t get it right, even sacrificing the pace of the game to do so... Correct me if I'm 100% wrong (please), but with the "upstairs" replay booth, wouldn't it be due to LACK of calls if there was fixing...

igglez
Joined: 10/11/2010
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"wouldn't it be due to LACK of calls if there was fixing"

not necessarily, for instance, a holding call on a big play could effect the o/u, or the side.

Sac Lawson
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One thing that you're missing, RJ (and responders), is the legal liability that these replacement refs face.  One who "fixes" a sporting event for gambling purposes is likely to face jail time.  By likely, I mean, with today's banking regulations it's extremely easy to track money laundering.  And large deposits are an easy trigger.   In other words, any individual suddenly making more than they did yesterday (metaphorically) is investigated.  Anyone investigated who is also receiving checks from the National Football League will be scrutinized, internally, by the fed.  

Now, I fully don't expect replacement refs to be tuned in to these facts, and therefore don't doubt the possibility of foul play.... But anyone willing to pay a replacement ref more than 10k should be aware of these things,  because as a money launderer, you gotta know the fuckin rules!  In other words, if I'm an outfit trying to fix a game,  I'd think twice about paying some idiot ref who doesn't understand banking regulations and how to structure their pay cut.

The difference, I see, between this situation and other sports that are fixed... The amount of money it'd likely take.  College kids in CBB  that have fixed  games have likely taken significantly less than 10k.  My assumption, with this post, is that a replacement ref wouldn't accept less.  And that is the general number, within the banking industry, for an investigation.

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