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MONDAY FREE PICK:Dave Essler | MLB Money LineFree pick902 PIT (-125) 5Dimes vs 901 LOSAnalysis:
The first thing that might concern me taking the Pirates is their bullpen, which was used as well as abused over the weekend, and Karstens has only pitched past the sixth inning once in his last ten starts. Harang is usually "just good enough" more often than not, but has historically had trouble with Pittsburgh. What I do find interesting is that he's given up more hits than innings pitched on the road (a by-product of not worrying in a big park, perhaps) but has given up far less bombs on the road. And that is not strictly this year, but also last year when he pitched in another pitcher-friendly park in San Diego. He does walk more than I would like to back, which could be a problem the way the Pirates seem to have woken up at the plate.
Although the Dodgers had a seemingly easy 5-0 game in Miami, they scored four of those five runs in the eighth inning. The good news is that the used little or no bullpen since Capuano threw a two-hitter.
Karstens does not walk many people, hence the great WHIP, but can be prone to giving up the long ball and has given up at least one in his last three starts. He lost to the Dodgers back in April before he went on the DL, so there may be a bit of revenge incentive in there somewhere. He beat them at PNC last year, and he has pitched much better at home this season, and actually last season as well. I do keep coming back to the Pirates bullpen, which prior to pitching well on Sunday had a 5.59 ERA and two blown save last week.
Offensively the Dodgers have been a bit challenged lately, hitting only three home runs and batting .248 last week, so overall we'd have to give the edge to Pittsburgh. I have to believe that mentally, after erasing the five run deficit with a nine run inning probably trumps the Dodgers beating Miami and having to fly 1500 miles. The Dodgers have now won six of nine, but they've beaten the Cubs, Rockies, and Marlins. On Monday they'll have to face a team that still cares and is on an emotional high playing an LA team that's a .500 team on the road (which doesn't actually suck) and they're a .500 team against RHS, and they've hit the least amount of jacks on the road in all of MLB (which may negate Karstens tendency to give them up) so I am betting on the Pirates.
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