Because of the uncertainty of the final week of the regular season how does everyone project a line to use for betting season win numbers. Certain teams rest players, others start younger players etc. For example a team with a pick em line would be .50 wins, but I'm not really sure what the best way to handle the final week is. Even Cantor who has lines on each and every game doesn't take action on the final week. Any suggestions or should we just make every game a pick at this point and use a blind .50 win for each team?
Interested to see how you are approaching this for NFL Season Wins.
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Bryan Leonard Because of the uncertainty of the final week of the regular season how does everyone project a line to use for betting season win numbers. Certain teams rest players, others start younger players etc. For example a team with a pick em line would be .50 wins, but I'm not really sure what the best way to handle the final week is. Even Cantor who has lines on each and every game doesn't take action on the final week. Any suggestions or should we just make every game a pick at this point and use a blind .50 win for each team? Interested to see how you are approaching this for NFL Season Wins.
Great question. I don't have THE answer, but I'll start and we'll see where it goes.
If you are taking a BAD team over the win total, you wouldn't mind if they get the Patriots (vs MIA in 2012), Packers (vs MIN in 2012) or the 49ers (vs ARZ in 2012) in the last game of the season, as these three are likely to have clinched their division before the last week of the season, although playoff seeding can be an issue.
On the other hand, Pittsburgh visits Cleveland and the Ravens host the Bengals on the final week of the season in 2012. It is easy to imagine both Pittsburgh and Baltimore needing a divisional win on the last week of the season to have a chance win the AFC North.
Maybe the tables will be turned in the AFC South this season with the Texans resting their starters in week 17 vs the Colts, perhaps allowing the Colts to get over their low win number.
That said, I think the best strategy is to have clinched all your Future bets BEFORE week 17. LOL.
Dr M.
bump
Hi Bryan,
I think the inferential reasoning you are using (Pkem price w/ .50 win%) is sound.
Sorry I couldn't contribute more to the discussion as I don't bet season win totals because the time I have is invested in baseball until September.
I would be interested in hearing others thoughts.
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50% might be a good baseline, but I think you should certainly deviate from it depending on the team and matchup. A team that is projected to run away with its division is more likely to rest starters, the same would be true for a team with a matchup against a non-conference opponent. A team with a conference game or one against a rival would be less likely. Most of the final games seem to be divisional matchups, however.
I'm a Packers fan, and their last game is against Minnesota. A divisional game like this is more likely to mean something for a tie-breaker, they don't want to lay down to the rival Vikings, and their early playoff exit last year after resting starters makes me think they will be at full force. I'd project a -7 or -8 line on this game, even on the road.
Great input guys. I believe the league wants divisional games the last week to keep teams from resting starters.
Any others with thoughts?
I look for teams that have weak/hard schedules first off. Typically, we assume if a team is good enough to "rest" their guys on the final week, they'll probably be good enough to win with a backup QB/RB as well. Depends on the team, Bryan.
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Sounds great Brandon. Looking. Forward to bouncing handicapping ideas off you.