The Patriots are 14-0 OU (+6.6 ppg) since 2007 the week after a win in which they allowed at least 280 yards passing. The SDQL is:
team=Patriots and p:W and po:PY>=280 and NB and season>=2007
Consider the Patriots and Seahawks OVER.
The Giants are 0-19 OU (-9.0 ppg) since November 1992 after a home win in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average. The Sports Data Query Language text is:
team=Giants and p:HW and tA(p:rushes)+10<=p:rushes and 19921101<=date
Consider the 49ers and Giants UNDER.
The Giants are 10-0 ATS since November 2005 on the road the week after a straight up win as a favorite in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The SDQL text is:
team=Giants and A and p:WF and p:TOP>tA(p:TOP)+180 and 20051101<=date
Note that the Giants have covered the spread by an average of 16.4 ppg in this spot. If they have an "average" day in San Francisco, they'll win by 10 points. By running the SDQL text, you can see that their last five in this spot were:
A 34-10 win in Texas getting 3.
A 29-16 win in Philadelphia getting 8.
A 24-20 win in New England getting 9'.
A 37-20 win in Green Bay getting 7'. (our 2012 NFL Playoffs GOY)
A 37-6 win in Carolina getting 2 (week 3 this season).
Now those are some solid covers. Yikes.
A rested Giants' defense is very tough -- and you know we are getting full line value because this information is not already factored into the line. This team trend involves a comparison with the team's previous season-to-date average time of possession and where else do you see that analyzed?
Consider not only the Giants +6.5, but the Giants on the moneyline as well.
The Chargers are 8-0 ATS (+10.6 ppg) since 2005 at home the week after in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average. The SDQL is:
team=Chargers and H and p:passes>tA(p:passes)+10 and NB and season>=2005
Consider the Chargers.
Very interesting post. I have to keep an eye on this trend. I wish I listened to you because I teased SFR down to 'pickem' and, well, go clobbered! Thanks for the information Doc and hope you had a good week.
team=Chargers and H and DIV and season>=2010
It's MNF and John Q. Public loves the overs so were looking at a '49' on the board. Chargers are 0-6 OU since 2010 in divisional matches at home. There is good value on the under.
p:TOP>=2400 and season>=2011
Teams that play a third consecutive week on the road are 68-81 ATS and cover 45.63 percent of the time.
p:A and pp:A and A
The cover rate above is a long term money maker, but what happens when the weary road team wins the second game of three road games? Well now the cover rate is reduced to 26-43-1 ATS or 37.68 percent. I think if a team wins its second game of a three game road swing it tends to let up a little bit - becomes complacent. I think this is the correct code below.
p:AW and pp:A and A
This week GBY is on the road for the third consecutive week, a tough spot, but when you consider they beat Houston last week in primetime it becomes an even tougher situation. The Packers have struggled this year to get going on all cylinders and are only at 3-3 in the win-loss column so I doubt they will be over looking the RAMS. Even if this angle doesn't hit this week it definitely is a long-term trend to stash away for future reference. Good Luck!
The NFC WEST is a defense heavy division and so far all three divisional games have gone UNDER the numbers:
This week we see SFR playing SEA and SFR is coming off of a loss. During Harbaugh's tenure in SFR they have lost four games in the regular season and the following week have played great defense - I think they've allowed 11 points in a total of four games - and seen the total go under the number all four times.
Since 2000 there has been a bias towards the UNDER on Thursday night games OU 66-92
Could we see an under play on TNF. Any opinions?
This is great stuff. Insightful analysis teamed up with the SDQL is a powerful combination. Your "3rd Away" makes good handicapping sense, as it is easy to imagine a team letting down after a big win in the second game of a three-game trip.
I also like your NFC West analysis. To get all match-ups of NFC West teams use:
division=NFC West and o:division=NFC West
To get only their first meeting of the season, use:
division=NFC West and o:division=NFC West and P:season<season
I could imagine that they would be even more conservative when meeting for the first time in a season.