Another nice find. No Monday Night let-down for Chicago.
Dr M.
10/4/2012
The Ravens are 0-16 ATS one the road when they are off a win in which they had at least 2:40 more possession time than their season-to-date average. The SDQL text is:
team=Ravens and A and p:W and p:TOP-tA(p:TOP)>160 and 20031019<=date
Note that the Ravens are 1-15 straight up in this spot, with their only win by a 27-26 score in 2006 as a TD favorite when they outscored the Titans 10-0 in the fourth and then blocked a 43-yard Bironas field goal attempt with 00:42 remaining to preserve the win. Last season, they were in this spot twice -- favored in both games -- but they got behind early and lost both straight up. In fact, as you can see by running the SDQL text, the Ravens have been outscored by an average of 8.1 points to 2.3 points in the first quarter of these 16 games.
Take a close look at the Chiefs this week -- and maybe the Chiefs in the first quarter is the play.
P.S. If anyone want to theorize why the Ravens would perform so poorly on the road after a game in which they had a lot more possession time than usual, I invite your contribution.
shivaseven team=Bears and p:day=Monday and season=2011 Last year the Bears followed up their Monday Night Football games (ATS 2-0) with two excellent performances. CHI 39 MIN 10 CHI 37 DET 13
team=Bears and p:day=Monday and season=2011
Last year the Bears followed up their Monday Night Football games (ATS 2-0) with two excellent performances.
CHI 39 MIN 10
CHI 37 DET 13
Might I add...
The Jaguars are 0-9 ATS when they are on a one-game SU and ATS winning streak. The SDQL is:
team=Jaguars and H and streak=-1 and ats streak=-1 and 20061224<=date
SDQL note: winning streaks are positive and losing streaks are negative.
Thanks for the JAX stat - they looked terrible last week. Last year the Bears opened the season with an ATS record of 1-4 and then they found their groove and covered 5 games in a row. If I can remember correctly, they, during that streak they pretty well looked as good as anyone in the league but were then derailed with the season ending injuries to Cutler and Forte. This year, like last year, Bears started a bit sluggish but I think after Monday's performance they might duplicate what we saw last year. It's just a hunch. Situationally, it's a bit of a tough spot: The Bears are coming off a big game on MNF and then have to go back on the road but I wasn't impressed with JAX vs CINNY and it left me wondering how Gabbert will hold up against agressive-well seasoned Bear's defense. Thanks again.
I've lost a bit of money on the Chiefs this year. Traditionally KC is a tough spot to play and I'd like to think their talent is better than their record. Basically, for the Chiefs, it's win or go home time so you are getting a team in a must win situation, with points, and at home. I guess it's hold your nose a make the pick. Last year Baltimore was inconsistent, especially after big wins, and they have Dallas next week and then Houston so they might be looking ahead.
10/5/2012
Here's a trend from the 2012 NFL Handicapping Bible.
MIA001: The Dolphins are 14-0 ATS (+8.2 ppg) since November 2006 as a dog when they are off a game in which their defense stifled at least ten third down attempts and recorded at least one sack.
Miami has added two winners since its publication to move to 16-0 ATS in this spot. The SDQL text is:
team=Dolphins and D and po:3DF>=10 and p:sacks>0 and 20061101<=date
Consider taking Miami plus the points over Cincinnati this Sunday.
NYG as favorites of more than a TD since 2010 are 1-6 ATS
team=Giants and F and -7>line and season>=2010
Hi Dr, I religiously listen to these great podcasts pregame offers and yesterday RJ was interviewing Fezzik and he tallked about a couple of handicapping situations that apply to this week.
In week 5, when 1-3 teams off of a loss play teams that are over .500 and off a win they tend to cover at a very high rate. How high? I'm not sure but I understand the logic: A desperate team playing a winning team offers motivational advantages and a little bit extra on the line as the public lines up to back winners - see KC and Tennessee this weekend.
He also mentioned another interesting situation: undefeated teams excel on MNF - see Houston this week. I'm sure the coding on this would have to exclude early season results as in WK1 all teams are undefeated and WK2 and WK3 it's to early to get a good read on who the dominant teams will be. Would greatly appreciate the coding on these situations. How are you doing in the LVH contest? Have a great weekend Dr. Meyer
shivaseven Hi Dr, I religiously listen to these great podcasts pregame offers and yesterday RJ was interviewing Fezzik and he tallked about a couple of handicapping situations that apply to this week. In week 5, when 1-3 teams off of a loss play teams that are over .500 and off a win they tend to cover at a very high rate. How high? I'm not sure but I understand the logic: A desperate team playing a winning team offers motivational advantages and a little bit extra on the line as the public lines up to back winners - see KC and Tennessee this weekend. He also mentioned another interesting situation: undefeated teams excel on MNF - see Houston this week. I'm sure the coding on this would have to exclude early season results as in WK1 all teams are undefeated and WK2 and WK3 it's to early to get a good read on who the dominant teams will be. Would greatly appreciate the coding on these situations. How are you doing in the LVH contest? Have a great weekend Dr. Meyer
These are relatively straightforward queries.
The first is:
wins=1 and losses=3 and p:L and o:WP>50 and op:W
and the second is:
losses=0 and day=Monday
If you find something interesting, post it here!
P.S. 13-7 so far in the LVH Supercontest.
As for the 1-3 scenario I took your code and added week=5 to eliminate BYE situations. It came back with an ATS record of 14-9 which works out to about a 60.87% cover rate. If you can hit over 60 percent that's great. This week teams in this situation are Jacksonville, Tennesse, Miami, and KC.
wins=1 and losses=3 and p:L and o:WP>50 and op:W and week=5
As for MNF I ran your code 'losses=0 and day=Monday' and got an ATS of 78-71-3 but I adjusted the code a bit, see below, to eliminate undefeated teams in the first four weeks of the season and came up with an ATS record of 19-11-1 which is 63.33 percent. Again, quite good numbers.
losses=0 and day=Monday and week>=5