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9/13/2012

The Packers are 14-0 OU when they are off a Sunday game in which they had less than 360 yards of offense and trailed at the end of the third quarter.  The SDQL text is:

p:M3<0 and p:day=Sunday and team=Packers and p:TY<360 and 20051219<=date

Note that Green Bay has gone over by an average of 14.7 ppg in this situation and that each of the last nine have gone over by more than a TD.

Consider the Packers and Bears OVER and look hard for a 51.  With the increase in scoring, 51 is the new 37 in the NFL. That is, 51 is close to THE key number in NFL totals.

Dr M.

9/14/2012

The Redskins are 9-0 ATS (+9.3 ppg) since September 17, 2007 on the road the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing.  The SDQL is:

team=Redskins and A and 150<=p:RY and 20070917<=date

Consider Washington over St Louis.

Dr M.

9/15/2012

The Raiders are 0-16 OU when they are off a game in which they punted fewer than six times, scored fewer than 14 points and committed at least one turnover.  The SDQL is:

p:punts<6 and p:points<=14 and team=Raiders and p:TO>0 and 20061015<=date

Consider the UNDER in Oakland - Miami.

Dr M.

9/16/2012

The Patriots are 13-0 OU (+6.6 ppg) since January 07, 2007 at home when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week on the road.

team=Patriots and H and p:margin>=10 and p:M2>=7 and NB and p:A and 20070107<=date

For more great analysis using the SDQL, check out the selections at DrEdMeyer.com.  You can get them for free after the games are played or you can pay for them before the games are played.  Either way, you will see why the linesmakers are no match for a team of PhD scientists who can bring the full weight of sophisticated computerized analysis to attack the posted lines.  The team is 10-1 their last eleven NFL selections including 3-1 this season.

Dr M.

9/17/2012

In the Monday Night Game...

The Falcons are 19-0 OU the week following a game in which the line was within three of pick and they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards, as long as they did not lose the game by 40-plus points.  Ths SDQL text is:

team=Falcons and 3*p:RY<p:PY and NB and -3<=p:line<=3 and p:margin>-40 and 19941009<=date

Note that they have gone over by an average of 13.0 ppg and they were 3-0 OU in this spot last season, with each game going over by at least a TD.

Dr M.

For week 3.

The Vikings are 0-9 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since 2008 when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30.

team=Vikings and oA(passes)<30 and season>=2008

The query phrase: oA(passes) means simply the opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game.  ANY parameter can be used in the parentheses.  For example, the opponent's average yeards per rush is: oA(YPRA) and the opponent average yards per rushing attempt allowed is: oA(o:YPRA).

So, it appears that the Vikings have not matched up well vs teams that feature the rush.  Consider the Niners.

Dr M.

Thanks DR BOL

Thanks for reading James.  BOL to you as well.

Here is an active trend from the 2012 NFL Handicapping Bible:

JAC008: The Jaguars are 0-10 ATS (-12.0 ppg) since 2008 when they are off an ATS loss vs a divisional opponent.  The SDQL is:

team=Jaguars and p:ATSL and p:DIV and season>=2008

Consider the Colts in week 3.

Dr M.

Dr. M,

I've printed off the 2012 bible and am attempting to embark on this SDQL journey. After a few days, my head hurts and every thought seems to be contain "and"/"or", but I think I have some of the very basics down.

A question I have is, how relevant is data to a specific Team? I see many queries that reference a Team's data from > 2 years prior and I would think that with so many changes to teams in any given year, what that Team did >2 years ago should have zero relevance to a game in 2012.

Once I learn more, I plan to focus my queries on generic situations rather than Team specific.

Any thoughts on this?

Thanks,

Thomas

Thomas,

Your question,  "How relevant is this trend in past performance?" is THE most important question in handicapping.  Finding trends is not handicapping.  The handicapping starts when you evaluate the relevancy of the trends.

I would say that if a team has undergone major changes in coaching staff and key personnel then then trends for that team are suspect.  However, teams like the Ravens, Steelers and Patriots seem to have a character is maintained throughout the years.  For example, the Steelers' persona has been very similar through the regimes of Noll, Cowher and now Tomlin.  

The obvious example of a team whose past trends in performance should not be used to predict future performance is the 2011 Colts when Peyton Manning was out.

So, I would say that the Steelers' performance a couple of years ago is very relevant where as the Colts performance a couple of years ago is not.

So, when using trends you have to THINK --  Does this trend make good handicapping sense?  Are the reasons for the trend in performance still in place?

Perhaps the hardest thing when using trends to handicap is going against, say, a 17-0 trend.  If the trend doesn't make sense or if is stale, you should have no problem going against it.

Finally, let me use this opportunity to state that when I quote a series of perfect play-on trends in a write up, I'm not implying that the play is a 100% play.  When I release a play in the NFL, I would hope that it has a 58-62% chance to win despite the fact that it is supported by, say, a 18-0 trend, a 13-0 trend and two 9-0 trends.

Thanks for the opportunity to answer a question about NFL Handicapping.

Dr M.

P.S.  If you are interested, I just published a book called, "Money Management and Winning NFL Handicapping," that contains a serious analysis of middles, teasers, half-points, parlays, trend handicapping, propositions and money management.