First Pass by Matt Ryan & Tom Brady Will be INCOMPLETE (Ryan priced at + 200; Brady priced at + 210)
This is one of my annual "tandem" props that looks for one of the two quarterbacks to be off the mark in his first passing attempt.
Although both have had fine regular seasons and post seasons, that does not necessarily mean they will be on target in their first Super Bowl pass. Nerves, timing and defensive recognition/preparation/pressure are just some of the factors that could prevent success.
And I am content to cash one and lose one of the two plays.
From more of a mathematical perspective, the likelihood of two independent events, each with a 70% chance of success (i.e. QB completion percentage), BOTH occurring is just 49%, (70% times 70%) meaning that there is a 51 % chance that at least one of the passes is incomplete. The chance for BOTH to be complete would be 30% times 30%, or 9%. The chance of one completion and one incompletion, again on a pure mathematical basis, is 42%. During the regular season Ryan completed 69.9% of his 534 pass attempts whereas Brady completed 67.4% of his 432 pass attempts. Using those percentages would put the pure mathematical percentage for both passes to be complete at 47.1%, less than 50%, making a "plus/plus" prop supportable for play.