Attached are my updated power ratings on every team, showing their rating to start the year, along with their rating last week, and their current rating. Additionally, I show each team's Home Field Advantage (a blank HFA indicates use 2.5). To calculate a spread, take the difference between the teams, and adjust for HFA. Note, if your calculated point spread is above 7, it typically requires a small adjustment downward, to reflect the 4th quarter of most of these games being more of a pk'm type situation.
Note, I use HFA of 2.5, but the vast majority of cappers use 3. The last 2.7 years, the average HFA has only been 2.5. However, in the case of two equal teams playing, I do think that typically "3" is the correct line in that situation.
HFA changes from earlier in the year.
LA is down to +2
Clev is down to +2
NYJ is down to +1.5
Dallas is up to an average HFA.
|
6-Sep |
29-Nov |
6-Dec |
HFA |
|
|
|
|
|
Arizona |
5 |
1 |
2 |
3.5 |
Atlanta |
-1.5 |
4 |
4 |
|
Baltimore |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
Buffalo |
0 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
Carolina |
6 |
0 |
-2 |
|
Chicago |
-2.5 |
-7 |
-7 |
2 |
Cincy |
3.5 |
-2 |
-0.5 |
|
Cleveland |
-7.5 |
-10.5 |
-9.5 |
2 |
Dallas |
-1.5 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
|
Denver |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
|
Detroit |
-2 |
0 |
1 |
|
Green Bay |
5.5 |
-1 |
0 |
4 |
Houston |
1 |
-3 |
-3 |
|
Indy |
-0.5 |
0 |
1 |
|
Jax |
-2 |
-3.5 |
-4.5 |
1.5 |
KC |
3 |
2 |
2 |
|
LA |
-2.5 |
-4.5 |
-5.5 |
2 |
Mia |
-1.5 |
0 |
0 |
1.5 |
Minny |
0 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
4 |
NEW Eng |
1.5 |
7.5 |
7.5 |
4 |
New Orl |
-3 |
1 |
0 |
|
NYG |
-1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
NYJ |
0 |
-2 |
-6.5 |
1.5 |
Oakland |
0.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
|
Philly |
-5 |
-1 |
-2 |
2 |
Pit |
5 |
4 |
4 |
|
SD |
-1.5 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
SF |
-7 |
-8 |
-9 |
2 |
Sea |
5.5 |
4.5 |
5.5 |
4 |
Tampa |
0 |
-1 |
0.5 |
2 |
Ten |
-3 |
0.5 |
1 |
2 |
Wash |
-0.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
I am assuming Lynch will QB Denver. If Siemian (who likely won't be 100%) bump Denver up 1 point.
I have a play on the Army/Navy game, and I will be releasing more football plays shortly......
http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY