Very profitable week 13, let's hope the momentum continues. Patriots,Vikings, and Dolphins futures remain after I added the Browns,Cardinals, and 3* 49ers one into the unit count on the season.
3* Seattle Seahawks -2.5 -120 *LOSS*
I love this matchup for the Seahawks. The Packers offense in my opinion is not “back”. They have faced the easiest schedule of opposing pass defenses this season, and the greatness of Aaron Rodgers has been able to take advantage of this schedule in recent weeks. But they are still a very, very flawed team. Aaron Rodgers has never matched up well against the Pete Carroll led Seahawks, and that was even when Rodgers was in his career peak. In 4 career games against Carroll’s Seahawks, Aaron Rodgers has an average of 209 yards per game, 1 touchdown, and 0.75 interceptions per game. That’s 50 yards less per game then his average, and a significantly worse TD/INT ratio then his career average 4/1 ratio. The Packers are an “isolation route” heavy offense, which relies on the wideouts to separate from tight coverage. That is Seattle’s specialty at defending, as the teams that have given them trouble in the past are teams that run bunch formations and pick routes to take advantage of the Seahawks aggressive coverage. The Packers rely on Rodgers to play excellent in order to win games and cover up the rest of the teams flaws, and that’s something I don’t see him doing against arguably the best defense in the NFL. The Packers run game is nonexistent, and the Packers had to run their entire offense from the shotgun last week due to a lingering hamstring injury that Rodgers has, which is limiting his mobility. His lack of mobility is a huge concern against a very good Seattle pass rush that can match up with every one of the Packers wide outs. I like the Seattle’s defensive match up against Green Bay, but I really like the Seattle offensive match up against the Packers defense. The Packers defense is lacking in talent, and lacking in the health department. Nick Perry is out, Jake Ryan and Blake Martinez are both potentially playing hurt, Mike Pernell just got suspended, and Clay Matthews is essentially playing with one arm. Mobile quarterbacks have always given Dom Capers trouble, and the Packers lack the personnel to cover the strength of the Seattle passing game, which is Jimmy Graham and Doug Baldwin. The Packers are a one dimensional passing team with no run game and no defense, and that may get them past lower tier teams, but not against a team that I consider to be a top three team in the NFL.
2* Baltimore Ravens +7.5 -115 *WINNER*
This Ravens team is not scared of the Patriots. They have played them extremely tough during the Harbaugh era. Tom Brady has been playing injured, and it’s been clear in his play. Brady has averaged 6.1 YPA over his last three games, after averaging 9.8 yards per attempt prior. And his last three games were against three of the league’s worst teams, the Rams, 49ers, and Jets. Without Rob Gronkowski, Brady’s numbers diminish significantly from his statistical splits with Gronk. This Ravens defense is legit, and they play shutdown tight end coverage, which isn’t good news for Martellus Bennett. They are a very sound tackling team, which is critical against the Patriots short passing game. They play league best run defense. Jimmy Smith is back and I can’t see Chris Hogan or Malcolm Mitchell getting a ton of separation against him. The Ravens offense has started to improve as the year has went on, and the Patriots have one of the leagues more overrated defenses. They are a very sound, well coached unit but they do lack talent, especially in the pass rush department. My instinct is telling me that this is going to be a very, very close game and I’ll gladly take over a touchdown.
2* Washington Redskins PK -110 *WINNER*
Refuse to overthink this game. The Redskins are the clearly superior team. The Eagles have allowed 47 pass plays or 20 yards or more, the most in the NFL. Kirk Cousins has 52 completions of 20 yards or more, 3rd most in the NFL. The Eagles have been a good home team, but the magic of that home field run faded a little bit two weeks ago against the Packers. The Redskins are no strangers to road success, as their offense averages 418 yards per game on the road, which is the highest average in the NFL. Even if star tight end Jordan Reed does not play, the Redskins literally have matchup advantages with every one of their wide outs against every member of the Eagles cornerback group. The Bengals, who have some of the leagues worst wide outs, were able to throw all over this Eagles defense. Since the week 4 bye, this Eales defense is ranked 21st in points allowed per game, and the offense is ranked 24th in points scored per game. The Eagles have extremely limited pass catching options, which is the opposite of the stack of pass catchers the Redskins have. “DGB” is likely out for the Eagles, and their best wide out, Jordan Matthews, is battling an ankle injury that forced him to miss the game against the Bengals. The Eagles have lost 7 of their last 9 games, while the Redskins have been playing some very solid ball, especially on offense. Refuse to overthink the game and I expect the Redskins to get the W. The last time these two teams played, the Redskins won their third straight game against the Eagles, in a game where the Redskins outgained the Eagles by 250 yards.
1* Oakland Raiders +3.5 -120 *LOSS*
In this huge game, I think the best option is to take the points. In the cold weather, the perception is that the Raiders are a "finesse" team, but the Raiders are actually the 14th ranked run offense on early downs, while the Chiefs are the 28th ranked early down success rate run defense. The Chiefs are the 30th ranked early down success rate rushing offense as well. The chiefs average 82 rushing yards per game at home, 29th in the NFL. 41.5 % of runs against the Chiefs defense have gained 5 or more yards, the highest rate in the NFL. Both teams have a pair of elite pass rushers but the Raiders have allowed Derek Carr to be sacked the least amount of times in the entire NFL. The Raiders also have a big time plus matchup in Amari Cooper against the Chiefs left cornerback opposite Marcus Peters. Cooper shredded the Chiefs left cornerback position for 10 catches for 129 yards. This Raiders team is currently 5-0 on the road as well. Think this is a toss up game on who wins straight up, so I will gladly take over a field goal.
1* Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 -125 *WINNER*
Personal choice to play this line at this number, fine to play at -2.5. The Bucs HFA advantage stinks Historically, but the team finally has hope and should draw a good crowd. The cheapest ticket for this game is going for around $90, which is much higher then previous games when the Bucs were lifeless, so I actually expect a good crowd, which upgrades the teams HFA. The Saints are signifcantly worse of an offense on the road, and their last 3 games in Tampa they have scored 16,23,24 points.. Which likely won't get it done against Tampa.
1* Houston Texans +7.5 -125 *WINNER*
Personal choice to buy this to 7.5. Look ahead line was Colts -3.5, so we have a HUGE overreaction to the Colts blowout win on Monday. Colts are missing almost HALF of their defensive starters in this game.
1* Falcons/Rams UNDER 45 -110 *LOSS*
Fischer when An underdog historically plays conservative. Atlanta is missing Sanu, and has a hobbled WR Julio Jones (Might be a decoy if he plays) and hobbled LT Jake Matthews. The Rams are one of the top under teams in the league but Atlanta's high scoring offense has this total so high. The Rams in LA allow an average of 15 PPG.
1* Broncos/Titans UNDER 44 -110 *WINNER*
Siemien is banged up so expect and conservative gameplan.. Titans are extremely run heavy and don't have the pass catchers to match up with the Broncos corners. This total is about 2-3 points higher then I expected it to be.
1* New York Jets +3 -120 *WINNER*
Better team getting points.. Line is insane in my opinion to say the jets are worse then the 49ers..