UPDATE: we have a winner! **w00t** Congrats if you followed either play today. **ka-ching!!** (+4u)
ARIZONA CARDINALS vs ATLANTA FALCONS - *WEEK 12*
Maybe I got lucky last week and I finally won a big bet regarding a Cardinals game this year. Can history repeat? I sure hope so as it's been hard for me to figure out which AZ team will show up from game to game. However, I'd like to think I have a decent read on the Cards for this Sunday.
THE INTANGIBLES TO KNOW ABOUT THIS WEEK:
* The ARIZONA Cardinals are 0-7 playing in Atlanta. The ARIZONA part is capitalized for a reason; it's because they won there as the PHOENIX Cardinals, but never as the ARIZONA Cardinals.
* I'm not a huge fan of Pro Football Focus, as they gave close to a zero point grade one time when Aaron Rodgers threw for 4 TDs in a game, so I took them less seriously. However..
* John Wetzel, the replacement LT for Pro-Bowler Jared Veldheer, was rated the worst LT last week by PFF. And yes, the eye-test says he was atrocious.
* Now the Cardinals are considering using a shaky RT in pass-protection in D.L. Humphries. (Carson Palmer just gulped heavily when he was told the news, I'm sure.)
* I bet you'd never guess based on how well the Cardinals ran last week despite their pass protection woes: 4.8 yds a carry for 135 yards.
* However, The Cardinals last week (against a damaged secondary) only completed 4 of 13 3rd down conversions.
* On top of that, Carson Palmer was under pressure a whopping (and record-setting) 62% of his passing plays, so...
* The book is out on Palmer: Hit him hard enough and soon enough his razor sharp passes becoming floating ducks.
* A lot of people are criticizing Palmer for having an off-year, but I really can't say it's really his fault. His O-line in passing situations has been horrid all year. Yea, he's made some bad throws - but which QB hasn't.. other than Dak Prescott? :)
* At season's start, I thought AZ's O-line depth at guard was better than last year. I was *dead* wrong. Speaking of dead wrong...
* Who the heck is Ulrick John? Supposedly he's some practice-player OL from the Colts the Cardinals picked up during the offseason, but word on the street is that he might be the STARTING RT this week due to Wetzel playing so poorly.
* It should be noted that MIN was able to apply a lot of pressure on AZ last week just by rushing 4 guys.. so imagine Carson Palmer's panic when more than 4 defenders came at him..
* Yikes, Cardinals - you can't expect to win a game having 8 penalties for 96 yards (last week in MIN), esp. on the road..
* As mentioned before, AZ this year has been getting off to slow starts in the eastern timezone. In fact, they've never won this year OUTSIDE of the Pacific Time Zone..
* AZ, esp. the offensive line, shoots themselves in the foot quite a bit on the road. Last week didn't change my opinion of them.
* Yea, I know ATL hasn't had a good year stopping the run, but the Cards this year seem to be the team that opponents cure their ills. Ask Buffalo, Minnesota, or the Rams.
* AZ "special" teams last week gave up a long TD on a kickoff return, the punter is ranked near the bottom of the league in terms of yardage, and the kick/punt returner can't run the ball back more than 5 yards without me drinking a bottle of Maalox in disgust.
* Meanwhile, expect Amos Jones (AZ's special teams coach) to get fired in the offseason. The GM (Steve Keim) is well aware of how bad AZ's special teams are..
* As mentioned last week, AZ's defense, as highly as they're regarded, are still giving too many 3rd and longs for my liking. (read: not impressed with AZ's DBs outside of Peterson)
* For the record: That 100yd pick-six last week against MIN wasn't Palmers fault. The WR was held by the DB, but the refs swallowed their whistle (a common theme in the NFL).
* Word on the street part 2: WR Michael Floyd has a hamstring injury. His strength was going up for 50/50 balls against smaller DBs - so will he able to play as a game-time decision?
* What used to be a strength is now a weakness, simply due to the injuries - and that is the WRs. Outside of Larry Fitz, who is playing really well AND actually able to play? Also, I'm seeing way too many drops by the WRs despite their talent..
* Speaking of WRs, did you know Atlanta has 13 guys on offense that scored TDs? So, what is AZ to do outside of the Julio J/Patrick P matchup?
* Tevin Coleman is back this Sunday - which means ATL gets a good one/two punch at RB.
* Tyrann Mathieu will be playing this Sunday - but is his shoulder really healed enough? He isn't 100% with his knee to begin with due to the ACL blowout around this time last year..
* I'd type more.. but it's getting late on this Saturday evening. **yawn**
OUTLOOK AND PREDICTION FOR WEEK 12:
Atlanta is coming off a bye-week, is well rested, and doesn't have many injuries. Meanwhile, AZ was beat up by MIN, has a bunch of key guys injured, and they're now going on the road against an explosive offense. It wouldn't shock me one bit if Matt Ryan goes off for 400 yards as MIN WRs got open against AZ but they either dropped balls or ran bad routes (and made the AZ DBs outside of Peterson look better than they really are). Despite Arizona's desperation to save their playoff hopes, historically in situations like this AZ falls flat on their face, esp. with a bottom-5 offensive line. ATL future HOFer Dwight Freeney will make a few hundred grand in bonuses this weekend working on some players he basically consider rookies..
If AZ is going to cover in ATL today, it means the following (just like last week):
* AZ will play well ENOUGH in the eastern time zone.
* AZ's O-line will stop shooting themselves in the foot with meaningless holding penalties
* Carson Palmer will be able to stand in the pocket without getting hit
* AZ will stop playing like crap in the first half and avoiding slow starts
* AZ will be able to run effectively against ATL's front 7 behind a poor offensive line.
* AZ's special teams will stop allowing long run backs, blocked punts, or blocked FGs.
If you watched the AZ/MIN game last week, you'll see that they failed 5 out of the 6 items listed above. That said, this will not be the week they correct their ways. After all, Arizona never won at Atlanta before (but came within -3 once.. but that was when Arizona was uber-crappy and no one took them seriously aka they were the "trap game").
I know a lot of folks are on AZ, but that means they've got bigger balls than I do because I don't see how AZ can keep up. AZ's O-line are full of turnstiles (similar to Florida's O-line against FSU on Saturday). In addition, I think AZ's defense is overrated (esp. the secondary outside of Patrick Peterson and in 3rd/4th and 1 situations) which I think a lot of cappers aren't accounting for. The dominant defense that was on display against Seattle earlier has yet to show up again..
PREDICTION #1: ATLANTA -4 3-units (which I posted earlier in the week, esp. on Sunday), but will happily play them up to -5.5. At 6, it's a 2u play, and at 6.5 a 1u play.
PREDICTION #2: OVER 51 (1 UNIT)
PREDICTION #3: NONE (as I was going to put up a ATL -3 1h bet, but dilaudid is going the other direction, and given the way he's been picking this year (read: a LETHAL, HISTORIC, and BIBLICAL year), there's no chance in hell I take the opposite side.)
Updated total for 2016/17 football season: 4-4 W/L record = +$374.68. (Note: each unit theoretically reflects a $100 play)