Plays
Jags team total Over 19.5 points (-120 or 125 odds) for 2.5 units, or 1.5 units Over 20, but pass at > 20
Game Over 43 (-120 odds) for 2 units (risk 2.4 units to win 2 units, buying game total down from 43.5 to 43)
3 pick, 7.5 point teaser (personally played at Bet US) - Jags teased to +10.5 with Over 36 tonite and Over 45 GB at Atl on Sunday, for 3.5 units (risk 3.5 units to win +4.9 units at +140 teaser odds)
Support for above plays
As if this match-up of "also rans" Titans and Jags wasn't ugly enough from a viewing standpoint, NFL Commish Goodell has made it even uglier by "requesting" (mandating?) that Jags wear their ugly throwback mustard-colored road unis that look more like pajamas. Does anyone know what happens if Goodell requests a team to wear ugly throw-back unis and the team shows some BALLS and says NO? I guess "it is what it is" as far as what unis the teams wear, and once next week's games start, we at least won't have to see these guys prancing around wearing pink socks, pink this and pink that, for the rest of the season.
In any event, as far as my goal of trying to turn a Sow's Ear into a Silk Purse in tonite's ugly NFL match-up, I don’t particularly like either side (except for teasing) but lean to the Over (43/-120), since these two teams have strongly trended Over lately (20-8 Over when combining Jags 12-6 Over in L18 games and TN 8-2 Over in L10), incl 4 straight Overs by Tenn, plus an 81 point OVER between these two LY at TN. On the other hand, Jags have played just two true road games TY, with much different totals results (a 52 point Over in a 14-38 blowout loss iat SD in week two, then a 33 point Under in a 17-16 comeback win (after being down 0-10 at HT and 0-13 in 3Q) at Chi two weeks ago (although I would also include their 57 point Over vs Colts in London as a roadie, thus making Jags 2-1 Over on the road TY, averaging 47.5 total points), while Tenn is 3-1 Over at home TY, including back to back (home) Overs in their L2 games, 54 total points vs Cleve and 60 total points vs Colts, with those four home games averaging 45.5 total ppg. But I believe the BEST value on the Over, as well as the best value for the game (certainly better than +3 for the game or +1.5 or 2 for the FH), is betting ON Jags team total Over 19.5 points (still would play Jags TT Over if your TT is 20, but for less, as indicated above), which is also a bet AGAINST Tenn’s sub-par defense, which has allowed 23 ppg TY, including 25.5 ppg in its four home games, as well as AGAINST Tenn’s TO prone offense, which has allowed 3 defensive TDs on turnovers (one “pick six” and two fumble recoveries returned for TDs) , all at home, incl two in their home opener vs Minny - and a score is a score, no matter whether it’s given up by the opponent’s offense or defense. I also recommend a 7.5 point teaser (which I played at Bet US, where they offer 7.5 point teasers at decent odds, especially 3 teamers) teasing Jags up to +10.5 with Over (teased down to 36) and Over in GB at Atl Sunday, teased down to 45.
BOL if you decide to go with me on any or all of these plays.
Great Owl