For what it's worth, we finally broke through with a good day yesterday.
As we have stated many times here, we wager recreationally, and never more than a unit ($100) on any single bet. Our total bankroll was $3,000 to start the season. For this season we were down $294.31, almost 3 units, going into Sunday.
We lost with the Vikings -2.5 (still not sure what the hell happened there), but we cashed with MIA +2.5 and the ML, and SD +6.5 and the ML for a profit of $155.91, and improving our season bottom line to -$155.91.
We're stepping out on tonight's game
HTN @ DEN
HTN O v DEN D
Brock Osweiler did have a strong 4th quarter and overtime to lead the Texans from down 23-9, and beat the Colts. That was a nice comeback win, but it was the Colts, and IND has one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Broncos, by contrast, have one of the strongest.
The Broncos have mismatches all over the field on defense. They should be able to apply a lot of pressure on Osweiler. LT Duane Brown returned two weeks ago, but he has struggled, and is clearly not over his injury.
DEN has an excellent secondary that that should be able to cover WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. Hopkins might occasionally get open, but Fuller might not even play because of his hamstring injury.
It will also be difficult for Lamar Miller to run the ball. effectively. Miller struggled to open the year, but finally had success last week. Of course, that was against the Colts' miserable defense. The Broncos should be much stingier.
DEN O v HTN D
The Broncos had problems moving the chains against SD, last week. However, Trevor Siemian was just returning from injury, and HC Gary Kubiak, an offensive coach and game planner, was in the hospital. Additionally, the Chargers' defense has improved signofocantly with Joey Bosa on the field.
The Texans once had a great defense, but they've sustained too many injuries. J.J. Watt is the big name, but SS Quintin Demps and CB Kareem Jackson have both missed time. Second-year CB Kevin Johnson is the latest to get hurt, landing on injured reserve. The Texans' secondary is in shambles, so DEN WRs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders should be able to get open frequently.
Siemian shouldn't have to pass that much anyway, because the Texans' rush defense isn't very good either. They just allowed Frank Gore to cross the century mark, and C.J. Anderson is a much more better runner than Gore at this stage of their careers.
DEN covers because
1. The Broncos are the better team, on both sides of the ball.
Houston, despite its 4-2 record, is not a good team. Aside from the Vikings who beat them in a blowout, as did the Jacoby Brissett-led Patriots. Three of the Texans 4 wins were against the Bears, who let at halftime, the Titans and the Colts who blew a 23-9 lead late. The only legitimately decent team the Texas have beaten is the Chiefs who were riddled with injuries at the time. The Texans are averaging a modest 4.9 yards per play, while allowing opponents 5.1 yards per play, for and -0.2 yarfs per play differential
By contrast, the Broncos have wins over CAR, CIN, IND and TB. Their 2 losses were to the surprising Falcons, but with Paxton Lynch at the helm, and the equally surprising Chargers, who knocked off the Falcons yesterday. So while facing an arguably stronger schedule, the Broncos are averaging 5.1 yards per play, but only allowing opponents 4.6 yards per play, for and +0.5 differential.
2. On top of the talent disparity, the Broncos have extra motivation for two reasons. First, the players will want to embarrass the team that fired their head coach, Gary Kubiak. Second, the Broncos will also be highly motivated to beat Osweiller, their former QB, who took the money and ran. Some of their defenders have sworn to do precisely that. Third, the Broncos were humiliated on national TV last Thursday, and have been hearing about it for 10 days. They'll be looking to redeem themselves in this game.
3. Familiarity matters as well. Gary Kubiak and Wade Phillips have watched Osweiler in practice for years. They know his tendencies. Historically, coaches going up against their old quarterbacks have been very successful. Expect a similar result here.
This line opened -6 and crossed over the key number of -7. It's now -7.5 at many books, and as high as 9.5 at one. The public is pounding the Broncos, but the sharps have shown very little interest in betting on the Texans.
DEN is the better team, and has every reason to be highly motivated here. The Broncos should win by double digits.
PICK - DEN 1st Half -4.5 (1 unit -105), DEN -7.5 (1 Unit -102) UNDER 20.5 (0.5 units) and UNDER 40.5 (1 unit -110)