EAGLES +3 v VIKINGS
Since I am living in the world of academia I like to pose questions as so the answer is easily apparent. Before we get in the psychological evidence to show the genesis behind my posted selection (Eagles) lets us first look to the statistical findings that back my overall thought process.
Team #1-Minnesota
Off Rank #30 (Last)
Def Rank #2
Turnover Margin +11 (#1)
DVOA #1
AND
Team #2-Philadephia
Off Rank #22
Def Rank #4
Turnover Margin +6 (#3)
DVOA #4
As you can see from the numeric above these two teams are virtual carbon copies of each other. Thus with 2 very similar statistical teams the line should theoretically on a neutral site should be a PK. Now ad the3 point home field n we should have an overall consistent line of Phily -3 not MN -3. Now let us look to the health and/or other factors as to find the reason behind this overtly incorrect number.
Team 1 (MN) is missing a top defensive lineman (Floyd), two (possibly 3) starting offensive linemen (Kalil + Smith) + (Fusco?), their Hall of Fame running back (Peterson) and original starting QB (Bridgewater) who was projected to be the long term future. In addition, their top WR (Diggs) has been limited in practice after missing his last game and questionable today.
Team 2 (Phily) is relatively healthy minus a top offensive lineman (Johnson) who is out due to suspension.
As we can now see in plain view the line so far doesn’t compute. So let us now look outside the numbers to find why this line on the surface appears to be in error.
Psychological factors
That “thud” you hear is the public jumping off in unison from the “Wentz Express” as the rookie has collapsed with a resounding thud. Nothing like the public hyperbole as once the 2nd coming of Steeler QB Roethlisberger, Wentz was destined to bring the long starving Eagles a Super Bowl, himself a gold jacket, and a bust for himself in Canton after only 3 games. Predictably Wentz has come back to reality as the team and his personal performance has regressed since leading the Eagles to a quick 3-0 start. Gone are the spectacular early season impressive performances against the Browns, Bears, and Steelers to presently where Philadelphia now stands at 3-2 after losses to Detroit and Washington respectively. This two game bump have the “Flyboys” facing a 3 game losing streak with the always looming national TV match-up next week against the insanely hot and hated Cowboys. The Eagles now instead of having a cushion to fall back on are looking down the barrel of a season that began with so much hype and promise to now having a team, city, and even nation questioning them. They now are beginning to hear the whispers of “frauds” start to filter through the media and even through the halls of the Link itself. You would like to think after two tough road losses they could be given a break with a “cupcake” to right the ship before their next Sunday night Cowboy struggle. Sorry no such luck as the wanted and needed “cupcake” is not in the plans as here comes what some call the best team in football (Minnesota) with a rested defense that is sending even the most established of QB’s running in fear. Add to the intrigue is the return of current Viking QB Bradford whom was projected to lead this very Eagle team, considered a pariah by the city, and just traded 6 days before the season opener to allow Wentz to become the starter! Talk about ironic! Ahh the intrigue!
This brings us now to the Eagle counterpart Bradford led Vikings. Now most thought that off last year’s division championship and with a unit that returned mostly everyone from a team that was 1 "shanked" field goal away from a playoff win that the Vikings would be a team that could contend for the playoffs once again. These dreams seemed dashed early on when their young and developing franchise QB Bridgewater went down with a gruesome knee injury that not only eliminated his season but currently his very career has been put in serious doubt. With this season looking dim Viking GM Spielman made a “balls out” call in dumping two high draft picks (1+4) to acquire the often maligned Bradford from these same Eagles. I know we are all in the speculation business but nobody could see the early season Wentz success along with how seamless this transition has been for all parties involved. Bradford has looked like a number 1 overall pick as he has picked up Norv Turner’s offensive system and has led the Vikings to a perfect 5-0 record and thoughts of Super Bowl for the Norseman. It has been nothing but magical for Minny but now is where we have to stop sipping the purple Kool-Aid and live in reality as it pertains to the Vikings.
You have to credit the metal toughness and resilience of this Viking club. Most teams that lose their starting QB, RB, WR, DL and 2 top OL would complain, whine, and feel sorry for themselves and look to obtain sympathy from the media to promote the narrative that it wasn’t their fault for their impending doom. This is where the leadership of “young” HC Zimmer (a Bill Parcells prodigy) would resemble the “grand master” himself in not allowing this “woe is me” disease to infect the culture of toughness that he is instilling with this young club in Minneapolis. This culture will insure that the Vikings will be a force not only in 2016 but for years to come. I fully believe within Zimmer’s tenure in the “great white north” that he will lead this club to Super Bowl glory soon but now is not the time.
As it pertains to the game today let’s look to the line itself. Does it make sense to you that if this game was to be played in Minneapolis that the Vikings would be a 9-point favorite!? Seriously? Now that being said when one is a road favorite as the Vikings are today there must be some considerable discrepancy in talent between the clubs along with glaring mismatches that the favorite can rely on if the game is tight and exposing this advantage would put them over the top. I will look for your responses to find what I might be missing (as it pertains to the line) but I just don’t see it in this game? An argument can be made that in every area outside QB experience the Eagles not only match this Viking club in talent but could be viewed as better overall. In fact, the #4 ranked Eagle defense could make life a living hell for Bradford. Since the offensive line for the Vikings will be 2 starters down and starting a guy they just signed off the street (OL Long) this weakness will be certainly exposed on the road as signals won’t be communicated clearly and thus insuring the protection will enviably break down to where the highly immobile and fragile QB with no current run support (last in NFL rushing), a limited WR Diggs, and a scaled back offense that is highly limited, and facing the strength of the Eagles defense (DL) will all add up to Bradford finding many challenges that will not be easily overcome. This limited offense will force QB Bradford to take chances and be risky with the ball which can and most likely will cause turnovers that miraculously the Viking offense has not committed all season.
Conversely the Eagles who are virtually equal to the Vikings in every area are now home seeing that they are an underdog and knowing they are facing a team (that if they don’t turn the ball over themselves) that can’t hurt them. The Phily defense who played well in back to back losses won’t be pushed back in any way by a limited Viking team. Conversely the Eagle offense will keep an aggressive Viking defense on their heels by various offensive motions within the west coast system of mechanical schematics of using slants, screens, and draws. By using this style of offensive attack the Vikings will not be able to unleash their furious pass rush which has fueled their league leading turnover margin (+11). By implementing this game plan, the Eagles will control the ball, clock, and eventually wear down a Viking club that will finally commit their 1st offensive turnover of the year and lead them to realize that the perfect season will soon be a distant afterthought.
Although the suspect Eagle offensive line could collapse under the Viking pressure and Zimmer’s schemes to total flummox, confuse, and discombobulate the inexperienced Wentz into multiple mistakes and wish his glory days back in Fargo (ND ST). These mistakes would allow Minnesota to impose their will and steal another win, I expect his game to be the one that exposes the Viking major weakness in their lack of running game, offensive line, lack of a pass rush when behind, and being continually kept off balance to all come together in a perfect storm of Viking dysfunction. Unlike the past games where the Vikings got behind and fought back (vs Tenn, Gb, and Carl) I just don’t see this same effort in this arena. Unlike Phily the Vikings can afford ‘hiccup” today since they have a much more important Monday night national TV match-up vs a divisional opponent next week (Chi) for which to make up for today’s potential demise. Granted the optics of an undefeated record looks nice but the realist knows next week is far more important to their season. Conversely the Eagles who are coming off back to back road favorite losses now find themselves as a home dog. The motivation to right the ship will be high as without a win today the season that looked so promising will now be teetering on extinction.
In the end and as an added nugget this game seems like an under play but I don’t go under when the total is located in the high 30’s (currently 38.5) in today’s NFL. Personally I feel that the Vikings will come a step slow and a little flat today day even off their bye. Each team performs differently after their week off but historically when a team is off a win then combined with being a road favorite the mind just can’t muster up the motivation to come out strong. It will take a couple of hits to the mouth and a quarter of game speed to be back in the mix and ready to perform at the level needed in the NFL. This is where a highly motivated Eagle club coming off those 2 road losses will be highly energized by the rabid home crowd that could fuel the Eagles to come out “flying” and scoring early forcing Minny out of their ball control game plan. The Viks are not build to comeback especially on the road as their shortcomings will become highly evident.
We also should know how this game will play out right from the start since the weather could come into play (possible high winds) allowing the defenses to control tempo and where the 1st score wins but also where a competent running game for which the Vikings currently do not possess. This lack of a Viking viable ground attack combined with a suspect kicking game will be of great concern and possible hindrance to a Viking team with a small margin for error and that has failed in this road favorite spot (12-17 ATS L19).
Now the Viks could throw a “wrench” into my plan by causing an early turnover which lead to a quick score now reversing the roles and taking the Eagles and their fans out of the game and instilling doubt within the minds of all involved. Or (for which I expect) the Eagles come out hot forcing the Viks out of their comfort zone to which they will start taking unnecessary and unbecoming of them chances making it a long day at the Link for the Norseman (think Steelers-Eagles 3 weeks ago) and the beginning of the Vikings regressing back to the mean and a realization that although still a playoff caliber team they have too much work to do on the field and growth off of it to be called at his time truly a championship caliber club. The early winning this year has ironically stunted this club’s overall development. Losing today will give Zimmer all the “ammo” he needs to get the attention of his young team and have their focus on the game and what it takes to win. Gone will be all the recent backslapping and positive media attention that is the killer of the “us against the world” mentality. The overuse of this phrase is “boorish” but it’s tough to argue with its success as it has been the psychological prototype used by the 2 of the 3 latest champions (Sea and Den) and has thus far working for Minnesota. Being a road favorite strips all of this motivation. So after going over all the statistical and psychological factors in my opinion there is no empirical evidence that Minnesota should be a road favorite in this match-up.
In the end I will look forward to the Vikings when they are 100% healthy as Zimmer is building a team that will combine their natural talent with the developing mental toughness to prove that they are a championship club. That being said it is still a work in progress that comes up against a hungry and motivated home dog who is in desperate need not only to win but to prove to the nation and themselves that the organization made the right choice in dealing Bradford, instilling the future now with Wentz, and that in their minds it’s the Eagles and not the Vikings that is the team which will be called a champion sooner rather than later.
OTHER PLAYS:
2 TEAM 7 POINT TEASER
(W) PACKERS -.5 (See Thursday write up) + BRONCOS -.5
2 TEAM 7 POINT TEASER
DOLPHINS +10 + STEELERS +14.5 (Going for the middle-See next selection)
PATRIOTS -2.5 (received this opening line last Sunday)
REDSKINS/LIONS OVER 49.5
LAST WEEK 2-3-0
RECORD TO DATE:
2016/ 10-15-2-40%
2015/ 36-18-5-67%
2014/ 34-24-5-59%
OVERALL TOTAL/ 80-57-12-58%
GOOD FORTUNE TO ALL! FORENSIC PhD!