Monday Night Football - Week 7 Premium Play - $5 - Click HERE to JOIN IN
Coming off a strong 8-2 Sunday. Loving this MNF play tonight
Good Luck
==============================================
Week 7 Breakdowns:
NYG @ LAR +3
This game is in London. Important to note that Robert Quinn and William Hayes will play in this one, strengthening the Rams’ interior defense. Giants will have Apple back improving their D as well. Both teams are coming off high scoring affairs, but this total is a bit bloated. My model has this one at 41 combined points and at 44.5, under is worth a look. Rams rank 29th in offensive efficiency while the Giants are only 18th. Neither team has had much success running the ball this season, neither pressures the QB effectively defensively, but both rank about average overall defensively. A bit surprised that New York is favored by a full FG, as this is a pretty mediocre team. Rams aren’t much better. Two fairly even teams in this one.
Lean: LAR +3 and UNDER 44.5
===========================
MIN @ PHI +3
For the last two weeks the Eagles have been overrated on the road, lined as -3 road favorites @ DET and @ WAS. They proceeded to lose both games. Now I’m wondering if the market has swung the other way, under-valuing Philly and over-valuing the Vikings. Minnesota is getting over 75% of all the bets, and the line moved to -3 MIN now. This is a good team but so is Philly. Remember when the Eagles walloped Pittsburgh 34-3 at home? The storyline here is that Sam Bradford is returning to Philly. But is that an advantage for him or for his former team? Eagles rank 5th in pass-D, 5th in ASR%, are getting Leodis McKelvin back, their best corner (missed last 2 games). I expect a good football game here but points should be at a premium. My model has this one at -2.5 PHI, so there’s a ton of value on the home team at this number.
Lean: PHI +3
============
NO @ KC -6
The Saints are going on the road to face a KC defense that held an explosive Oakland offense to 10 points in Oakland. Can the Chiefs do the same at home against the Saints? They very well could. Drew Brees isn’t as efficient outdoors as he is in the dome, and facing this 6th ranked Chiefs pass-D won’t be easy. The biggest issue is that NO might not have the ball that much, as I expect KC to employ a run-heavy approach once again against this 30th ranked NO run-D. The off-season line on this game was -8 Chiefs, so KC could be under-valued in this one.
Lean: KC -6
==========
WAS @ DET -1
Matchup-wise, you have to like Washington in this game. Their weakness defensive is stopping the run (#31), but they face a DET team that can’t run the ball. With Riddick set to miss another game, this Lions run-game will feature a bunch of plodders with zero big-play ability. Washington’s 11th ranked pass-D should have success against a one-dimensional Lions attack. On the other side, it’s hard to see this 32nd ranked Lions D stopping Washington on offense. Even without Reed, Washington has plenty of weapons at its disposal. Last week Detroit gave up 28 points to the Rams! Expect Washington in the 30’s in this one.
Lean: WAS +1
============
CLE @ CIN -10.5
It’s tempting to back Cleveland in Hue Jackson’s return to Cincy for the first time, but I just have a hard time seeing how this Browns team competes here. The number of injuries is mounting for this team: Haden out, Poyer (starting FS) out, and Pryor, their only real weapon on offense, barely practiced this week. Cincy is 2-4 but lost to top teams in the league. This is a critical game for them if they want to catch Pittsburgh in the standings, something they could very well do with Roethlisberger out for a while. Value is on the Browns at this line though.
Lean: CLE +10.5
==============
BUF @ MIA +2.5
An interesting spot for Buffalo, who are sporting a 4-game winning streak, playing their 3rd road-game in a 4-week span, and then have a home date with the Patriots next week. Can we call this a ‘sandwich’ situation? Miami showed up last week, and they played really well even before Roethlisberger got hurt. Of course their stud safety Reshad Jones got hurt and is now out for the year. Bills’ passing game isn’t as big of a threat but this is still an efficient offense. Of course McCoy is very likely to miss the game, which is a huge factor here. Gilllislee is a solid backup, but he’s no McCoy. We’ll see how the Bills adjust, most likely unleashing Taylor a bit more. Another crucial matchup to consider is Miami’s 32nd ranked O-line vs Buffalo’s #1 ranked pass-rush. The defense could very well keep Buffalo in the game. If not for the tough scheduling spot with a ‘look-ahead’, I’d most likely play the Bills here, even without their best offensive weapon, as long as the spread is below 3. At 3, you have to like the home team.
Lean: BUF -2.5 or MIA +3
=====================
OAK @ JAX -1
The dreaded “East Coast 1 PM EST” game for a West Coast team like Oakland here. Jacksonville has a top-10 pass-defense and a decent pass-rush (#12) so this won’t be an easy game for the Raiders offense. To make matters more difficult is the fact that this Oakland D can’t stop anyone, ranking 29th overall on the season. Jags are learning how to win close games, and being at home, I like their chances here.
Lean: JAX -1
===========
IND @ TEN -3
The Titans are quietly playing like an above-average NFL team. They rank 10th offensively and 9th defensively on the season. Their Achilles-heel is the special-teams which rank 32nd. Interestingly, Colts rank #1 on special teams. Could that be a factor that keeps this game close? Possibly, as neither team is very reliable overall, showing lots of volatility in their performance week-to-week. In the off-season this line was -3.5 Colts, so this tells you how far Indy has fallen lately. Still, if this one gets to 3.5 (and the juice certainly indicates it’s moving there), Indy is worth a strong look.
Lean: IND +3.5 or better
====================
BAL @ NYJ -2
Wowza, the Jets are favorites here? They’re on short-week and have made a QB change. Of course there’s no one worse than Fitzpatrick in the league, except maybe Flacco. His -21% DVOA ranks 27th and his 5.4 PY/A is 41st. That’s as bad as it gets. With NY going from Fitzpatrick to Geno Smith, that should be a ‘positive’ for them. But how much of an improvement is it really? Remember, there’s a reason Geno Smith is a backup. In any case, as for Baltimore they have a ton of key players out:
Steve Smith, Elvis Dumervil, CJ Mosley, Kendrick Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Marshall Yanda. That’s a ton of talent gone, not to mention the fact that Flacco is banged up as well (remember, he’s also really bad this year!). Maybe this is the reason the line is moving in NY’s favor.
Lean: NYJ -2
============
TB @ SF -1
When San Fran was +2, I was thinking of backing them. But since the line moved by 3 full points, Bucs are worth a look as an underdog. Remember, this team beat ATL and CAR, and played the Rams close. They can play with ‘weaker’ teams in this league (ATL game was 1st of the season so I’ll assume that win was a bit of a fluke). Of course Tampa got blown out by ARZ and DEN, so clearly they’re not ready to step up just yet. Well, San Fran is as bad of a team as it gets. They’re without Hyde, who is their best offensive weapon. Let’s see if Kaepernick can win a game on his own. He hasn’t been able to do it in a long while.
Lean: TB +1
==========
NE @ PIT +7
No Roethlisberger in this one but that’s not the only loss. Pittsburgh is without Heyward (their best defender?), Gilbert (their best O-lineman?), and Wheaton (their #2 WR). Facing a juggernaut like the Pats won’t be easy in this spot.
Lean: NE -7
==========
SEA @ ARZ -1
Arizona is coming into this one with a hobbled Carson Palmer and without John Brown, their deep threat at WR. In addition, another burner, Jaron Brown, is very questionable as well. This tells me that the Cardinals could have a very tough time moving the ball offensively. On the other side, Russell Wilson is still not as mobile as he is when fully healthy, and of course his O-line is very questionable at best. Going up against a top-10 Arizona pass-rush won’t be easy. Two defenses that rank in the top-3 overall (and top-3 in pass-D) and both offenses that are mediocre so far this season. I’m not sure why this total is so high. My model has it at 40 total points.
Lean: UNDER 44
==============
2016 NFL Record:
27 – 30 @ 0% for -6 Units
-----------------------------------
#1: Top NFL Play for Week 7 - $5 - Click Here to Join In
#2: UNDER 44.5 LAR/NYG
#3: New York Jets -2
#4: Jacksonville Jaguars -1
#5: Washington Redskins +1
#6: Philadelphia Eagles +3
#7: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1
#8: UNDER 44 SEA/ARZ
#9: Teaser-6.5 points:
New England Patriots -0.5 / Kansas City Chiefs +0.5
#10: Indianapolis Colts +3.5 (Added Sunday Morning)
Good Luck