Guys,
Although I’ve been MIA in this forum so far during this FB season, and have not had time to post any picks here for the first six weeks, many of you probably remember me from my posts here in prior seasons, and now that we're six weeks into the season and I now have some meaningful CURRENT (this season) team stats and tendencies to work with, as opposed to just guessing and hoping that LY’s team stats and tendencies would be relevant (which they sometimes are, and other times are not), I'll be making some posts in this forum, starting TW, using the same approach that I’ve used for my posts here in prior seasons, where I often play my top picks in multiple ways in addition to playing the full game point spread, such as also playing them for the FH, playing the team total Over on my pick/team and/or Under the team total on the opponent, as well as playing my one or two top dogs, or “rabid dogs” (which BTW I rate higher than “live dogs”), as Spartan calls them, on the plus odds ML, for the FH and/or for the game - that's what I typically do when I really like a team, in what I call my "betting attack strategy." And I have 3 solid "core picks" so far TW, plus a fourth that I like enough to rate at 3 units, provided we get the line I played it at this AM. And those top 3 picks are SD +7 (-125 or 130), Minny -2.5 (-115 or 120), and the NO Saints +7 (-115 or 120), although I'm waiting for my main play on SD until FH (first half) lines are posted later TW, due to Chargers "fast start/weak finish" tendency, as shown in "spades" in four of their six games TY, including in all 3 roadies. My fourth play is on the NY Giants (-2.5 (-120 or 125), or alternatively -145 on the ML if your line has already jumped to -3 and is too 'expensive' to buy down back to -2.5, playing against the LA Rams early Sunday morning in London, which is 7 time zones (and thus 7 hours) away from the Pacific time zone where the “body clocks” of the Rams players reside. Below are those picks and my initial support for same, as well as the unit strength of the plays I have already made on them at the best full game lines that I was able to get at the books where I play. Again, I expect to update this post with additional picks on these four games, once the books release FH lines and team totals lines later TW.
Top Pick of the Week – likely SD/FH (first half) over Atlanta assuming SD is at least +3 (and hopefully +3.5) for FH once FH lines are released later TW – for overall support on SD, see support below for my full game pick on them
Top pick of the week so far – Minny -2.5 (-115 or 120) at Philly for 3 units
Initial support for pick – it’s a bit tricky to get a “read” on Philly, which is undefeated at home but lost its last two (both away) with uninspiring performances by both the team and rookie QB Carson Wentz, and two of Eagles’ 3 “victims” TY being “bottom feeders” Cleve and Chicago, and that big upset win over Steelers a few weeks ago no longer looking all that impressive, after yet another miserable road performance last Sunday in Miami by Pitt, which had already “gone bad” well before Big Ben was knocked out of the game. On the other hand, backing Minny has been a “no brainer” for quite some time, with Vikes (as mentioned above) having gone 18-4 ATS in all of their games LY and TY, including 5-0 SU and ATS TY. I’ve been playing Minny each week since their third game, after seeing (in their “upset” win over GB) how well they had adjusted to unexpectedly losing their top two offensive players (QB “Teddy Bear” and RB AP), due in large part not only to Minny HC Mike Zimmer being one of the best in the business, but also with the way that “fill-in” QB Sam Bradford fit seamlessly into the Minny offense and performed waaayyy beyond even the most optimistic expectations of the Minny coaching staff, and knowing that when you keep playing a team on a hot streak until after they fail to cover the spread, you only lose once after winning multiple times. Also note that Minny QB Sam Bradford, who was acquired from this Sunday’s opponent (Philly) by a somewhat shocking trade after Minny QB Teddy Bear went down with a likely season-ending injury, would no doubt LOVE TO STICK IT TO PHILLY, THE TEAM THAT TOLD HIM HE WAS THEIR #1 QB, AND THEN HUMILIATED HIM BY DOING A COMPLETE “ABOUT FACE” and shipping him off to Minnesota to put all their “marbles” on a rookie QB, in Carson Wentz. Bradford, not only healthy this season for a change, but with a strong OL to protect him, must be “pumped” for this chance at quick personal R&R (revenge and redemption) in the City of Brotherly Love.
As stated in detail by fellow poster Ththaman in his detailed support of his pick on Minny, the Vikings’ defense appears to have a significant match-up advantage over the Eagles offense, which got abused last Sunday in Wash by an average Redskins defense, and as stated by another fellow poster, West Coast Tycoon, “it’s gonna be hard for Philly to muster anything against us/Minny offensively. They just don't have the playmakers. They struggled mightily against the Redskins D, which is nowhere near as good as Vikings’ D.” Accordingly, I agree with West Coast Tycoon that a Philly team total Under play also looks good (when team totals lines are released later TW).
2.5 units on NO +7 (-115) at KC
Initial support for pick – Saints have totally turned themselves “inside out” lately from what they used to be under the current Payton/Brees regime, that being a very good bet at home when not laying > a TD but a poor risk on the road (8-0-1 ATS at home and 1-7 ATS on the road in 2013, Payton’s first year back after his 2012 one year suspension for “bounty gate”). But L2+Ys it’s been just the opposite, with NO a sub-par 8-11 SU in all home games in 2014 and beyond, and a ghastly 4-11-1 ATS as home faves during that period, including 1-2 SU at home and 0-2 SU and ATS as home faves TY. In contrast, they’ve been 7-2 ATS LY and TY as road dogs of +3>, including 2-0 TY, with a big comeback upset win at SD and close (3 point) loss but ATS cover at NYG. That meshes nicely with KC’s so so 4-6 ATS record LY and so far TY as a home fave, including 0-5 ATS as home faves of 7> points. Similar to SD, I’ll likely add a strong FH pick on NO at +3.5 or better, especially if I can get them at +4.
2 units on SD +7 (-125 or 130, buying up from +6.5) at Atlanta
Initial support for pick – SD is 20-9-1 ATS in last 30 games as road dog, most of them under 4th year HC Mike McCoy, including 2-0 ATS TY as road dogs of +3>, despite having lost both of those games SU (at KC and Oak, each by 3 points), in addition to a third road “come from ahead loss” at Indy, as 2 point dogs. So despite its ATS success as a road dog, in covering close games that they “ingeniously” figure out new ways to lose, SD is not w/o its “warts,” particularly its “come from ahead loss” mentality, which has translated into numerous terrible 2H performances already, both at home (4Q collapse vs NO and near collapse vs Denver) and away (CFA losses at KC, Indy and Oak), especially in the 4Q (although hopefully their ability to hold on late in their last game to beat Denver will boost their late game confidence somewhat). But they have been great in the FH of all of those games, so I am looking at a likely big FH play on them, where hopefully I’ll get +3.5 points. Also note that SD has had 10 days to prepare for Sunday’s game at Atlanta, not having played since last Thursday, and as I’m sure most of you know, playing dogs (either home or away) with a ten day rest and prep period has been VERY profitable, especially if their opponent played the previous Sunday, as Atlanta not only did, but with a 6,000 mile round trip to and from Seattle, from which all they got in exchange for their efforts was a very frustrating loss (the kind that “lingers”) in a game where they clearly got screwed by the back judge “swallowing his whistle” on an obvious pass interference foul committed by Seattle DB Richard Sherman on fourth down, a penalty which would have put Atlanta in easy FG range to kick a game winning FG and have an uplifting road upset win by one point over a legitimate playoff contender rather than a crushing loss by two points (a HUGE difference, and again, the kind of loss that “lingers” and can adversely affect next game performance). And while Atlanta is a decent 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS so far TY, most of their success has come on the road, where two of their 3 opponents (Oakland and NO) are teams which have notoriously bad defenses (especially vs the pass) and recently also have been wretched as home faves.
3 units on NY Giants (-2.5/-120 or 125) over LA Rams, or for 2 units (risk 2.9 units to win 2) at -145 on ML if your line is -3 for NYG and you have to lay -130> in “juice” to bring it back down to -2.5, game being played in London, ENG on Sunday, starting at 9:30 Eastern time
Initial support for pick – the big time change (especially for LA Rams players) could affect the outcome of this game, likely in a negative manner more for the LA players than the Giants players), as it’s a huge 7 hour time swing for Rams players, but “just” 4 hours for Giants - I recall several years ago when SD played NO in London, the season after the controversial Drew Brees trade to NO by the Chargers, and many SD players complained that a big part of the reason they lost was that even though they had flown to London a few days before the game to not only get in some sight-seeing but also get acclimated to the time change, they were still seriously “jet lagged” on game day and that’s why they “faded” big time in the 2H and 4Q. Also relevant is fact that with the NY to London flight being half the time of an LA to London flight, there should be many more NYG fans there than Rams fans. And finally, note that Giants should be in a much better frame of mind than LA heading into this game, with NYG coming off of an uplifting last minute comeback win over Balt, while LA is coming off of its second straight loss, a frustrating loss in Detroit, in a game that they clearly should have won.
Since this game is a “road game” for both teams, their respective road records so far TY are somewhat relevant, and in that category, neither team has any real edge, with Giants 1-2 SU away TY, but all 3 games against likely playoff teams (Minny, Dallas and GB) and their lone road win being the only loss TY for surprising Dallas, while Rams are 2-2 away, but with only one of those four against a likely playoff team (their upset win at Arizona, a game which AZ QB had to leave after 3Q with a concussion), and one of them an ugly opening 0-28 loss at bottom feeder SF. So for the above reasons, plus Eli Manning being a better QB than Case Keenum and Giants’ WR Odell Beckam being the best receiver on the field, I’m going with NYG at -2.5, both as a “straight” play and (teased to +4.5) in one or two teasers with my other plays. Unlike SD and NO, I won’t likely be playing NYG on the FH line, but I may play them Over on their team total if I get an “Over-friendly” TT line for them later TW. Finally, note that if you decide to play NYG, you’d better do it now, because the line (or odds) is rising, with G-Men now -3/-105 at one of my 3 books and -2.5 (-120) and -2.5 (-125) at my other two books. If your line is -3 for NYG and you have to lay -130> in “juice” to bring it back down to -2.5, I suggest instead playing NYG at -145 on the ML.
Good luck this WE guys, especially if you play my picks, and I'll be following up with more picks on these games (consistent with the above "core picks") as FH lines and team totals lines are posted by the books later TW.
Great Owl