For what it's worth,
MIA @ CIN
MIA O v CIN D
The Bengals secondary has not played well this season. Reggie Nelson has been missed, while Pacman Jones appears to have lost a step. After a slow start, Bronco QB Trevor Siemian torched the Bengals last week. Siemian went 10-of-11 for 168 yards and two touchdowns after halftime. He sliced through Cincinnati's secondary, constantly connecting on deep throws to Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas.
The Dolphins have the personnel to take advantage of the CIN secondary as well. Ryan Tannehill wasn't very good last week . He did throw for 319 yards and 3 TDs, but he made several mistakes. He opened with an inaccurate interception on his first throw. He threw a pick-6 right before halftime. Tannehill could've put the game away by hitting Dion Sims for an open touchdown, but he didn't see him. He then gave the Browns a chance to win the game by being strip-sacked when he held on to the ball way too long. He got lucky that Parkey missed the ensuing field goal that would've won the game for Cleveland. However, Tannehill did do a good job of moving his team down the field in overtime. Bottom line is that Tannehill isn't an elite QB, but neither was Siemian. What Tannehill does have are two very good receivers in Jarvis Landry and the emerging DeVante Parker. Both could have big games against CIN's struggling defensive backfield.
The Bengals should get a boost with the return of Vontae Burfict. That's big because it should bolster a front 7 that has been just average. The CIN front 7 already had a big edge here because the Dolphins have issues on their offensive line. They're going to be starting their third-string center, while left tackle Branden Albert could be out. MIA's center problem shouldn't be underestimated because it's one of the most important positions in football. Geno Atkins will eat the Miami interior offensive line alive.
CIN O v MIA D
Andy Dalton has struggled this season. Dalton had another mediocre game last week, , going 21-of-31 for 206 yards and a crushing interception at the end in which a poor throw was tipped into the air. Dalton was very fortunate to get away with another near pick earlier in the 2nd half when he made another inaccurate heave way short of the 1st down marker on a 3rd and 11. An obvious reason for Dalton's struggles is the absence of Tyler Eifert, who was a great security blanket for Dalton last season. Eifert is questionable again this week. He's been limited in practice, and given the short week, he could sit out. Even if he suits up, he could be limited like NE's Rob Gronkowski was last week.
Another reason that Dalton has struggles has been the offensive line. Center Russell Bodine has struggled, as expected, but the right tackle situation has been miserable. Cedric Ogbuehi has been a major liability. The Dolphins have the pieces to expose this, with Ndamukong Suh overwhelming Bodine and Cameron Wake beating Ogbuehi. Dalton should face heavy pressure and will have to rush his throws.
If Dalton has enough time (a big if) he should be able to exploit the mismatch A.J. Green has with the Dolphin corners. CB Byron Maxwell has been awful. That shouldn't come as a suprise to anyone except maybe the Dolphins who inexplicably traded down to get him. Green could have a big day, if the OL gives Dalton enough time.
Miscellaneous Capping Factors
1. This line looks a little high. The Bengals have struggled to score. They are only scoring 18.7 ppg, which ranks 25th. That's compared to 25.6 ppg. last season, which ranked 5th. That's 7 points less per game. Here, they're being asked to cover 8 points. That seems like a lot for a team than averages under 20 points per game. For MIA, the back door should be wide open with Tannehill exposing the Bengals' secondary. The Dolphins pushed against the Patriots is you waited for the +7, and NE is a better team than CIN.
2. Yes, the Dolphins should have lost to the Browns, but I think that part of that was because they took the Browns lightly and were looking ahead to this game. No one expected the Browns to be competitive, and rightfully so. Missing numerous players, including Josh McCown, Corey Coleman, Joe Haden and Carl Nassib, how could the Browns possibly stand a chance? I wouldn't read too much into that Cleveland game.
3. Miami has some nice mismatches here, and the Bengals are not as good as they have been in previous years.
4. One problem with betting on the Dolphins here, is that they/re down to their third-string center. That's a major concern.
5. The Dolphins are coming off an overtime victory and are playing on a short week. Teams on short rest following overtime wins are 2-8 against the spread. This makes sense because teame in this situation could be fatigued.
6. When we look at the line movement here, the advanced line was -6. It opened -7 and now sits at -8. This suggests that the books aren't afraid of a middle, meaning that the books think that the Bengals are the right side.
This game troubles me. It seems clear, almost too clear. I keep asking myself just what I'm missing. I don't think MIA is an elite team, but I don't think CIN is either. I do think this should be a low scoring game, in which both team may struggle, so points should be at a premium. I don't like the line movement, but I think this spread is too high. In the NFL the spread is the great equalizer. I just don't think CIN should be favored by more than 7 against any team that's not a bottom feeder. MIA may not be elite, but they're not awful either. With the back door wide open, I see to much value with MIA.
PICK - MIA +8 (1 unit)