For what it's worth, the Bears cost us a winning week 2, I'll update the record later, but want to ge these out as soon as I make a decision.
DEN O v CIN D
C.J. Anderson has been tremendous through two games. He appears to have a good matchup again in this game. The Bengals couldn't stop either Matt Forte or DeAngelo Williams in their first 2 games. They should l improve when Vontaze Burfict returns from suspension, but Burfict will be out 1 more game.
Anderson's ability to run the ball should ll make life easier for Trevor Siemian, who made several precise throws against the Colts last week. However. that was "against the Colts," who have the worst secondary in the NFL. The Bengals have a much better defensive backfield, although it's not as good as it was last year because Shawn Williams has been a major downgrade from Reggie Nelson. With two dynamic receivers, Siemian should be able to make the necessary throws and advance the chains somewhat consistently.
This is Trevor Siemian's first road start. We don't know how he'll perform in a hostile environment. Siemian ranks 28th in QBR with 1:3 TD to INT ratio on the season.
The Bengals will have to pressure Siemian, and they do have a good matchup in the trenches. DEN RT Donald Stephenson, who has played surprisingly well through two games, is sidelined with a calf injury, so Cincinnati's top edge rusher, Carlos Dunlap, should be able to dominate Stephenson's backup.
The Broncos also have some injury concerns with TE Virgil Green being out.
CIN O v DEN D
The Bengals shouldn't be able to run the ball effectively. Jeremy Hill gained almost nothing against PITT, and DEN's run defense is even better than PITT's. Cincinnati has 103 combined rushing yards in their first two games.
The Broncos should be able to pick up where they left off last week, particularly with Cincinnati's offensive line struggling. The Bengals surrendered 7 sacks to the Jets in week 1, and had another shaky showing against the Steelers. The Broncos will be missing DeMarcus Ware, but 2015 first-round pick Shane Ray performed well in his absence last week. Denver will still have Von Miller and Derek Wolfe to rush the QB.
Miscellaneous Handicapping Factors
1. The Bengals play in four days V MIA, and are coming off a very physical game with PITTT.
2. Denver just isn’t getting the respect that you would expect to see for an undefeated defending Super Bowl champion. I’m not saying they shouldn’t be a dog in Cincinnati, but they shouldn’t be catching more than a field goal.
3. Denver has thrived as an underdog under Gary Kubiak. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS in this spot, winning on average by a score of 26.0 to 20.0.
The Broncos should be able to run, and that should open up the passing game enough for DEN. CIN won't be able to run, and that means the Broncos should be able to tee off on Andy Dalton.
PICK - DEN +4 (1 unit) and ML (0.5 units +182)
OAK @ TENN
OAK O v TENN D
If the Raiders didn't have such a good offense, they'd be 0-2 with a pair of ugly, blowout losses. Derek Carr has been excellent, and it doesn't hurt that he has two very talented receivers.
The Titans should have success is stopping the run. The Raiders don't run the ball particularly well anyway, and Tennessee has been able to shut down the ground game v MINN and DET. That, however, may not be enough, given the advantage
Derek Carr has a big advantage versus Tennessee's secondary. The Titans may have difficulty containing Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Their secondary isn't very good, particularly Perris Cox, who missed what seemed like a dozen tackles last week.
Part of the Titan's defensive problem is the lack of a pass rush. Except for Jurrell Casey, no one put any pressure on Matthew Stafford last week, thanks to Derrick Morgan being out of the lineup. Brian Orakpo was on the field, but he has been a disappointment so far.
TENN O v OAK D
HC Mike Mularkey will try to establish DeMarco Murray, who has gained 5.2 yards per carry thus far, proving that he can still be effective when playing for a coach who actually knows what he's doing. TEN should be able to get the running game going here. They had trouble doing so against an elite MIN defense, but they rushed for 139 against Detroit. and they should easily surpass that in this game. Murray should be able to run on a Raider team that is ranked 28th against the run, and who had problems tackling the Fallcon's mediocre runners last week. If the Titans can run the ball successfully, hen this could be a long day for the Raiders.
Marcus Mariota now has a HC who understands you actually have to pass block. Mariota has completed 68% of his passes thus far with 4 TDs and 2 INTs. The Titans have blocked well for Marcus Mariota so far, but there is one glaring liability up front, Gce Warmack, who may play through an injury. However, the Raiders don't really have the personnel to expose him, so Mariota could have a big game.
Mariota should be able to connect early and often with talented rookie Tajae Sharpe, while Pro Bowl TE Delanie Walker would be able to exploit a Raider linebacking corps that had trouble containing Atlanta's pedestrian tight ends. The Raiders are vulnerable to good tight ends so Walker could have had a big game for the Titans. There's just one problem: Walker has a sore right hamstring and missed Friday practice leaving his status up in the air. He figures to be limited if he does play. Marcus Mariota doesn't have a lot of quality receiving weapons. Walker is his first look and security blanket. However, Tajae Sharpe & DeMarco Murray have 11 and 12 receptions, respectively, so they are both viable options..
Outside of the Seahawks offense, there hasn't been a more disappointing unit this season than Oakland's defense. The Raiders spent tons of money on big-name players this offseason, bringing in Bruce Irvin, Reggie Nelson and Sean Smith with huge deals. These moves were supposed to dramatically improve the Raider defense, but that hasn't happened. Irvin has performed well, but Smith and Nelson have been awful, as have the other members of that secondary. The Raider defense is dead-last, 32nd in the NFL in yards passing allowed and total yards allowed per game, and they're 31st in ppg allowed.
The OAK pass rush hasn't been very good either. The Raiders failed to place any pressure on Drew Brees even though the Saints have a bad offensive line, and Khalil Mack has been invisible.
Miscellaneous Capping Factors
1. The Titans started just 2-9 SU in 2015, but they were just 15 points away from a 7-4 SU record through 11 games. They're healthier this season and have made quality moves to shore-up some of what plagued them last season.
2. Oakland barely won here last year, 24-21. Despite a plus-two turnover margin and Titan injuries, the Raiders still needed a game-winning TD in the closing 90-seconds of the game.
3. This line opened at PK but has quickly moved to the current number. What’s interesting is that Titans were +2.5 in the initial spread release, a full 4-points off from where they are now. the bookmakers are making an adjustment here that clearly says that this Titans team is better than most thought. Remember, they had a 10-point halftime lead in week 1 against the Vikings and then held Detroit to only 15 points on a way to a comeback win in week 2. Now they get the worst defense in the league (through 2 weeks of course) at home.
4. The Raiders are playing in the 1 PM EST time-slot, a spot they haven’t done very well in historically.
5. Public money has moved the spread in Oakland's favor. There's some sharp action on the Titans, but not that much.
The Titan should be able to move the ball on the ground in this one. If they can do that, they should dominate the time of possession and keeps OAK potent offense off the field. This will also open ip opportunities for Marriota, even without Walker. There is some risk here because OAK is coming off a loss. Plus, they do have more talent in their weak spots, so there's always a chance their underperformers begin playing up to their ability. Still I think The Titans, at home, should be favored by a couple of points, so there's a little value on TENN here. This could well be a tight game that goes down to the wire, making this a 50-50 shot.
PICK - TENN +2 (1 unit) and sprinkle on MLL (0.5 units +111)
ARIZ @ BUF
ARIZ O v BUF D
Ryan Fitzpatrick looked like the second coming of Joe Namath last Thursday. The Bills couldn't stop him, prompting the organization to fire their offensive coordinator??? I've heard two explanations for this bizarre move. South Point bookmaker Chris Andrews said on a recent podcast that he heard that the move came from the front office. If so, Buffalo fans are in for a horrific time with new owner Terry Pegula, who has already proven to be a meddlesome owner. I also heard what I refer to as the conspiracy theory. That theory says that Rex Ryan was responsible for the firing. He was afraid of being fired before the season was over. He knew that when HCs are fired in-season, it's usually he OC who takes over. So Rex pre-empts his own firing by canning his OC. If anyone deserved to be fired, it should have been DC Rob Ryan, who's responsible for that train wreck of a defense in Buffalo.
I've had reservations about Carson Palmer this season, and still do. He's had a lot of potential INTs dropped, and he just doesn't look the same as he did last season - but if shouldn't matter here. If Ryan Fitzpatrick can pick apart destroy Buffalo's secondary, Palmer should have similar success.
The issue with BUF's defense isn't just the Bills' defensive backfield; it's more that Buffalo can't pressure the passer without sending the house, because of all the injuries in the front 7. The Cardinals should pass protect well enough to shield Palmer from Buffalo's blitzes.
Palmer may not even have to throw that much because RB David Johnson has a great matchup against a Bills defense that had all sorts of problems containing Matt Forte. At this stage in their respective careers, Johnson is much more talented than Forte, so he should have a big game unless the Cards sit him again in the 2nd half because the game's already effectively over.
BUF O v ARIZ D
QB Tyrod Taylor hasn't played particularly played well . He's connected on some deep bombs, but he still doesn't read the field well. That could be very problematic against the Cardinals, who confused the hell out of Jameis Winston last week.
WR Sammy Watkins wasn't able to finish last week's game, and has been ruled out of this one.
LT Cordy Glenn's status is out again . Glenn missed last week's game. His replacement, Cyrus Kouandjio, was abysmal. Chandler Jones has to be licking his chops at the prospect of going up against Kouandjio.
The Bills will need to run the ball with LeSean McCoy to give themselves a chance, but that could also be prolematic, especially if Glenn is out. Because BUF lacks healthy receivers, the Cards should be able to play closer to the line and focus on putting the clamps on McCoy.
Arizona's secondary looked much better last week with Marcus Cooper replacing Brandon Williams. Williams was a huge liability in their opener, but Cooper played well v TB.
Miscellaneouds Capping Factors
1. The Bills lost by only one score in each of their first two games: by 6 @ BAL and by 6 vs NYJ.
2. The Bills were humiliated on national TV, and have has 10 days to hear about it. The public is pounding the Cardinals, who are making a cross-country trip and playing in an early start time. Laying points on the road with a team in an unfavorable situation such as this isn't usually a good idea. The Bills could be motivated to prove everyone wrong and bounce back.
3. A significant change like firing Roman could rally the team, and get them to perform above expectations, especially in the short-term.
4. The Bills could be among the worst team in the NFL right now, and given the turmoil surrounding the team, things could just implode in Buffalo.
5. The Bills may have had 10-days to prepare for this one but they are coming off a week where they’ve fired their offensive coordinator, after the offense put up 31 points. I just don’t see the players rallying around Rex the way they had in seasons past. I truly think he’s either on the cusp or maybe already has lost the locker room. There’s also a lot of pressure on Rex Ryan to turn this season around, so this one will potentially be make-it or break-it game.
6. This line was BUF +2.5 in the pre-season, so you can see an adjustment here. This is a significant one since it crosses a key number of 3.
7. The public money is all over the Cardinals, as you'd might expect. There's some sharp action on the Bills, but not an overwhelming amount.
This spread dropped from -5 (opener) to -4.5 to -4 . I bet it at -4. It's now at -4.5 or -5 in most places.
There's only one thing that troubles me. This line just seems oddly low; the Cardinals should be -6 or so. There's just something strange about this line, although I feel better with the line moving up again.
PICK - ARIZ -4 (1 unit)
CLEV @ MIA
CLEV O v MIA D
Josh McCown is out with a separated shoulder, so it'll be Cody Kessler's turn to start at QB. Kessler was chosen in the 3rd round this past April, but many teams had him graded as a 7th rounder or even an undrafted free agent. Kessler has absolutely no arm strength. 2 yard passes are difficult for him!
McCown could have exposed the liabilities the Dolphins have in their secondary, namely Byron Maxwell, who has been atrocious. However Kessler won't be able to do that.
WR Corey Coleman looked like he might be able to have a breakout season. However, the Browns sustained another blow when Coleman was lost for 4-6 weeks.
The Dolphins couldn't stop the Patriots running attack last week, but they should be able to play closer to the line, and smother Isaiah Crowell in the process, because Kessler's not much of a threat.
MIA O v CLEV D
The Dolphins couldn't protect Ryan Tannehill in the first half last week, allowing the Patriots to build up a 31-3 lead. Things changed in the 2nd half, as the blocking improved.
Tannehill won't face much of a pass rush from the Browns, who won't even have promising Carl Nassib, thanks to a broken hand. The Browns have some decent players in their linebacking corps and secondary, but without a pass rush, it'll be very difficult for them to cover Jarvis Landry and the emerging DeVante Parker. Tannehill should have all afternoon to stand in the pocket and pick them apart, just like Joe Flacco did in the 2nd half last week.
The Browns could be without their best defensive player as cornerback Joe Haden is questionable with a groin injury. No other Cleveland defensive back has anywhere near the coverage skills Haden has. Haden is the No. 2 cornerback in the NFL behind only Josh Norman.
Cleveland should be able to stop the MIA running attack. Arian Foster is not expected to play, which means that the lackluster Jay Ajayi is expected to handle at least half the workload. He'll split touches with other players, but the Browns have been very good at stopping the rush thus far, thanks to Danny Shelton and stud linebacker Christian Kirksey.
Miscellaneous Capping Factors
1. Laying 10 or more should only be considered when taking one of the top teams in the NFL versus a truly horrible opponent (i.e. CAR v SF last week). That's not the case here. The Browns are horrible, but the Dolphins are definitely not amongst the NFL's elite. Cleveland is abysmal, but Miami isn't good enough to be laying 10 against anyone. The Dolphins are obviously the better team here, but even with Kessler on the field, 10 points is way too many. There's just no room for error. If the Browns score on a return TD or a turnover TD, they'll have a good chance of covering double digits.
2. The Dolphins play on Thursday night against the Bengals, so they might be looking ahead to that.
3. MIA opened with Sea and NE on road, two very tough opponents and came away 0-2 despite leading SEA late, in low scoring game Sea and a close but too little too late comeback v NE. Now they're at home v a poor CLEV team down to it's 3rd QB and with Coleman out.
The sharps were betting the Dolphins heavily when this line was in the -7.5 to -8.5 range. They've laid off since.
The public is betting MIA here, and the sharps aren't taking the Browns at +10, that's telling.
I want no part of CLEV on the road v a desperate home team in desperate need of a win. I hate laying big points, but I'm with the public on this one. I found a -9 this morning, and there's no way in hell, that I'm putting money on Cody Kessler.
PICK - MIA -9 (1unit)
DET @ GB
DET O v GB D
Through the first 2 weeks, GB has struggled to stop Blake Bortles, who did nothing versus San Diego, and Sam Bradford, who was on the Vikings' roster for about 2 weeks. Matthew Stafford should be able to do what Bortles and Bradford have done, torch the Packers' secondary.
The Lions will have trouble running the ball especially with Ameer Abdullah missing.
Clay Matthews has been ineffective because he's been injured. Matthews appears to be greatly bothered by his ankle and isn't really doing anything as a consequence. Without much of a pass rush, this is putting even more stress on Green Bay's secondary.
The Packers have some major issues in their secondary, particularly Damarious Randall, and it doesn't help that Sam Shields is injured either.
GB O v DET D
It still looks like there's something wrong with the Packers. Last year, you could point to Aaron Rodgers' shoulder, Jordy Nelson's absence, Randall Cobb's health, Eddie Lacy's weight and the offensive line's instability due to injury. It made sense that the Packers struggled. Now, granted that the Packers were going up against one of the top defenses in the NFL last week, but they also averaged just 4.9 yards per play against the Jaguars in week 1. The same Jags who were torched by Philip Rivers last week. Through their first 2 games, Green Bay's scoring attack is averaging about 4.5 yards per play, which is well below the league average.
The GB offense could get better fast against the Lions. Injuries have ruined things for the Lions. Their top pass-rusher, Ziggy Ansah, was lost on the first drive last week to an ankle injury. Stud linebacker DeAndre Levy was out with a quad. We don't know if Levy will play in this game, but even if he does, he could be limited.
Miscellaneous Capping Factors
1. Aaron Rodgers has always played better at home, as have the Packers. The Lions only have a few quality healthy players in their back seven (Darius Slay, Glover Quin) to deal with Rogers and his weapons.
2. Since Jim Bob Cooter has taken over as the offensive coordinator, the Lions are 7-3 straight up and against the spread (would be 8-2 if Aaron Rodgers didn't hit that Hail Mary). They did lose to the Titans last week, but they were the better team for all four quarters. They held the lead for most of the game, they were up 12 heading into the 4th quarter, and had numerous touchdowns wiped out by penalties. They also didn't have DeAndre Levy, Ziggy Ansah and Ameer Abdullah on the field (the latter two were lost during that game).
This line opened +8.5 in most places and the pros brought the spread down to +7.5 within a half hour. This line is still too high. There's still professional money coming in on Detroit, this line is now down to -6.5 at most places. I am a little surprised that the books moved this line below +7 because they're in danger of getting middled.
The Lions should be able to hang around by scoring points on a beleaguered Packer secondary, any maybe even pulling the upset.
PICK - DET +7 (1 unit) and ML (0.5 units +250)
MINN @ CAR
MINN O v CAR D
Everyone is talking about Sam Bradford's performance against the Packers, and rightfully so. What he did was impressive, considering that he was on the roster for only 2 weeks. However, the Packers have some glaring issues in their secondary, they couldn't stop a Blake Bortles-led JAX offense that got completely shut down by SD. However, Sam Bradford on the road, is more likely to revert to his old self, than to the guy that looked so efficient against the Packers last week.
Bradford may well regress in his 2nd game, but the Panthers' defensive backfield has some issues as well. Josh Norman's absence is huge, as it will continue to impact the CAR D greatly this season. You just don't replace a player of Norman's caliber. The CAR safeties haven't been performed all that well either. Trevor Siemian didn't have much of a problem moving the chains in the season opener until he made some mental errors in the red zone. Bradford is more experienced and should be more careful with the football. He should engineer some successful drives, targeting Stefon Diggs heavily. Diggs is blossoming into one of the league's better receivers, but he wouldn't be a huge issue if Norman was still a Panther.
The Vikings really only have one offensive weapon left, and that’s Diggs. If Carolina takes him away (double team?), Bradford could revert to his old self where he barely throws more than 5 yards down the field on each attempt. It's hard to see this Vikings offense keeping up with the Panthers on the road.
Things would be easier if Adrian Peterson were available, but he's not. The Panthers had issues with C.J. Anderson in the opener, but I doubt that Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata will be able duplicate Anderson's success.
CAR O v MINN D
The Panthers finally got on track last week after sputtering in their opener. However, their offensive tackles are still a major liability and couldn't protect against Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. Miller and Ware were silenced in the first half, but they eventually came alive following intermission and managed to seal the victory for Denver. That liability could be a problem here as well. The Vikings have a couple of dynamic edge rushers in Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter who should be able to pressure Cam Newton.
The Vikings have one of the top defenses in the NFL and should be able to limit the Panthers. Carolina won't have Jonathan Stewart, and it's unlikely that Fozzy Whittaker gets much going up the middle versus Linval Joseph and Eric Kendricks. Newton will pick up some 1st downs with his legs, but it's difficult to envision Carolina's offense being overly consistent.
Miscellaneous Capping Factors
1. CAR is overrated. The Panthers demolished the 49ers, and everything is OK now. That's the narrative, and explains why Carolina is favored by a TD over the Vikings. However, The Panthers still have some problems. Their tackles aren't very good and will continue to struggle against teams with strong edge rushers. Their secondary, which wasn't tested at all versus SF, isn't nearly as good, without Josh Norman, as it was last year. The Panthers are still a top-10 team, but they're no longer the team that went 15-1 last year.
Carolina struggled in the early going versus the 49ers. Carolina's 46-27 win over San Francisco wasn't that convincing. The 49ers were coming off a big victory in a late Monday night game and had to travel across the country to play a 1 p.m. game, and yet San Francisco hung around while the Panthers made some sloppy errors early on. That doesn't bode well for CAR in this game, CAR could lose outright if it continues to commits the same sort of mental mistakes.
2. MIN is underrated. The Vikings arguably have the best defense in the league, while Stefon Diggs is blossoming into becoming one of the top receivers in the NFL. Sam Bradford has proven to be competent, so if he stays healthy - a big if, obviously - the Vikings will continue to be ranked among the best teams in the NFL, regardless of whether Adrian Peterson plays or not.
3. The Charlotte riots could impact this game. The Panthers could be distracted by everything that's been happening. The senseless riots in Charlotte could cause a distraction if some of the players' family and friends have been affected by it.
4. This spread's too high. This spread plummeted upon its release. Minnesota was +8.5, but fell to +7 within a half hour because of sharp action. It's still too high. These teams are evenly matched, and this line should have been Vikings +3 with Peterson in the lineup. It shouldn't have moved much more than 1 point for Peterson's loss, so we're getting 3 points of value through 2 key numbers! I think this line is an overreaction to Peterson's injury.
5. The line has continued moving, you can still be 7, but I'm seeing mostly 6.5, and a few 6s.
The Vikings are getting way too many points in this game. I don't know if MINN can pull the upset, but with that defense, I think they can stay within the number.
PICK - MINN +7 (1 unit) and ML (0.5 units +235)
LA @ TB
LA O v TB D
The Rams have scored 9 points this season, ZERO in one game and of course 9 vs a Sea in week 2. I don't see this offense breaking out anytime soon. When we also add that the Rams are at bottom in 3rd down conversion % and only 3 teams have committed more penalties per game so far, we get a clear picture of why LA is offensively challenged.
Todd Gurley hasn't done much thus far, but that could change in this game. The Buccaneers don't have a poor run defense, but they're not dominant like the Seahawks either. They have cracks, so Gurley could pick up big chunks of yardage.
The Rams will need Gurley to keep the Rams in manageable down and distance situations because, the Buccaneer line should be able to apply heavy pressure on Case Keenum. Gerald McCoy is playing at the top of his game right now, and Rodger Saffold is the only Ram offensive lineman playing well.
The Buccaneers also have the edge in the passing game. They're weak at safety, but the Rams don't have the receiving talent to take advantage of this liability, especially if Keenum is seeing lots of pressure.
TB O v LA D
The Rams have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL, and they'll be going up against an offensive front that isn't all that great. The Buccaneers don't have a bad blocking unit, by any means, but left tackle Donovan Smith is a liability, so it's unlikely that he'll be able to contain Robert Quinn. And TB won't be able to can double-team Quinn that frequently because they'll have to worry about Aaron Donald, Michael Brockers and William Hayes as well.
Jameis Winston will face a lot of pressure, but coming off a humiliating performance, he should play much better, particularly considering that the Rams have a couple of cornerbacks who have struggled thus far. Mike Evans won't be covered by anyone remotely as talented as Patrick Peterson, so that should open up the Buccaneer offense.
Doug Martin probably won't play, but the "downgrade" to Charles Sims isn't all that substantial in this game. Neither one should be able to run on the Rams anyway, and Sims can be very effective on passing downs.
Miscellaneous Capping Factors
1. The Buccaneers don't have much of a home field advantage, and the Rams should make it so this is a low-scoring game, meaning Tampa could win, bud not cover this spread.
2. The Rams are 0-4 on road ats after playing Seattle, 1-6-1 overall the last 8 times.
3. This is a great spot for TB. It's LA's 1st 3 time zone road trip, and TB coming off a blowout loss
4. This game will be played in 90 degree heat, which the Rams are not accustomed to, particularly after a physical game with SEA.
I am somewhat concerned about laying more than a FG, but LA can't score and the spot overwhelmingly favors TB so we'll lay the hook.
PICK - TB -3.5