WEEK 3: ARIZONA CARDINALS vs BUFFALO BILLS
The Cardinals unleashed hell on Tampa Bay last week after taking the Patriots lightly in week 1. The Bills made the Jets look like 2007 Patriots last week. Could the Bills rebound being down 0-2 in the hole?
THE INTANGIBLES TO KNOW ABOUT THIS WEEK:
* What's this? The Cardinals might have a starting CB (opposite of Patrick Peterson) that doesn't get burnt like Fire Marshall Bill??!!
(Above is an in-game photo of Brandon Williams against NE in week 1. Or it might be Justin Bethel from last year.. who knows.)
* Introducing Marcus Cooper: who literally was waiver wire trash (well, was picked up for a 6th rounder from KC right before 53-man roster cutdowns started) had 2 INTs and 3 pass defensed last week! He looked good enough to the point I thought the Honey Badger was out there batting away passes..
* 6'2" and lanky, he has good size, decent cover instincts (read: he actually turns his head where the ball is in flight), and can hold on to the ball! These traits were not shown by former starters Bethel and Williams.
* But is Cooper a one-hit wonder? We'll see if he is, courtesy of Bills WR Marquise Goodwin, who is a WR I always liked because he has good hands and he is FAST.
* What happened to WR John "Smokey" Brown? He's still around, but it's evident he hasn't fully recovered from the concussion he suffered during training camp. However, supposedly coaches are saying he's back at full speed.
* WR Michael Floyd? Where did you go? He's still around, too, but Larry Fitz is simply the best slot WR out there.. not to mention he is probably as clutch as it comes when your team needs a 3rd down conversion desperately.
* I have to admit though - Carson's long ball is not as accurate as it was last year pre-finger injury. I'm seeing more overthrows on long bombs.. but I guess that's better than underthrowing it..
* For those that back the fact that 0-2 home teams are dangerous to bet against, there is no precedent on this regarding Rex Ryan, as he has never gone 0-2 before.
* However, his pop, Buddy Ryan, went 0-2 with the Cardinals one year (finished 8-8).. and 0-3 the next year (he finished 4-12). Here's a key flashback moment to represent the Ryan regime in Phoenix:
* If the Ryan pedigree is any indication (and seeing what happened with the Jets/Bills game last week), expect a lot of blitzing. However..
* Palmer led all QBs last year in average yardage per play against the blitz (over 8 yds a play).
* Last week, Ryan Fitzpatrick against the Bills looked like Carson Palmer. That Bills secondary was susceptible to long bombs, and 10-15 yard pass plays..
* Unfortunately for Buffalo, this happens to be Palmer's strength. Palmer throws that 10-15 yard skinny post as good as anyone in the league.
* In relation to what I wrote several sentences above, another thing that Rob Ryan will do that AZ will absolutely, absolutely love: The Bills employ a lot of single coverage (aka "zero coverage").
* In other words, the 4-6 defense is back in vogue! (lol) On the other hand, that's what got Buddy fired back in his "heyday" with AZ..
* Despite how the Bills secondary got ripped against NYJ last week, I will say that Bills CB Ronald Darby looks like a baller.. but he is suffering from a hamstring injury and was "limited" this week in practice. Ruh-roh!
* No Evan Mathis (the starting RG for AZ)? No problem. The replacement, Earl Watford, is a decent guard to begin with with plenty of experience on the AZ O-line. Evan and Earl are very similar: effective in the run game, average in pass protection.
* The Cardinals last week made up a lot of wrongs defensively, and it's not because of the 40-7 score. They covered and tackled a LOT better than they in week 1.
* The front 7 of Buffalo is still formidable, but I thought Matt Forte looked tore them up.. and David Johnson is basically a younger, better, bigger, and faster version of Matt Forte..
* The Bills will run, run, and run some more.
* The Cardinals will counter by putting two excellent runstoppers that are basically safeties on paper, Tony Jefferson and Deone Bucannon.
* Based on the eye test, the Cardinals have been doing well defending opposing TEs (which is historically an AZ weakness), but I wonder if that's only because the DB opposite of Patrick Peterson is getting picked on constantly. Charles Clay can be in for a productive day if he can slip past the AZ linebackers, who haven't been all that great in coverage this year..
* AZ OLB Chandler Jones isn't looking like the sack-stud AZ thought he would be in terms of a pass-rush, but he's still better than whoever AZ had in the past because at least he can play the run and the pass, unlike previous AZ pass-rushers.
* So.. Tyrod Taylor and "Shady" McCoy are looking forward to the "simplified" offense with the new Bills OC taking over. Hmm.. where do I remember hearing comments like that...
* Oh yea: The countless numbers of times when AZ had inept offenses, esp. under Buddy Ryan, where they'd always try to simplify things on offense. End result: a 4-12 season, and Buddy gets the boot at the end of the season.
* So word on the street is Bills want to go uptempo with the new coordinator: Be careful what you ask for. Chip Kelly tried that against AZ late last year - only to get blown out on national TV. AZ can literally score a TD in less than 50 seconds.
* Speaking of uptempo, is Sammy Watkins going to play? He better if they want any chance of going up-tempo..
* If there is one glaring weakness AZ has displayed the past couple games (well, heck - the past year), it's special teams. The "cheap rookie" punter is worse than last year (which is saying a lot! Anyone for a muffed FG hold?). Andre Ellington is looking like the brainless former kick returner Javier Arenas, who can't calculate very quickly that being at the 25 yd line is better than being at the 18 on a kickoff return. Meanwhile, Chandler Catanzero has made me scratch my head, but last week he looked pretty good on kicks, despite the potential game-winner against NE in week 1. Special teams coverage is horrible, too, esp. on punt returns.)
* On the brighter side of things, I just came back from the Rochester/Buffalo area yesterday - and the weather is GORGEOUS. This weather screams "Arizona Air Raid"...just like AZ is back in Phoenix during a December home game (minus the smog).
OUTLOOK AND PREDICTION FOR WEEK 1:
The bet percentages are slanted toward AZ (about 73/27). I get worried if the bet percentages go above 80/20 in any teams favor, but the fact is it is not. I'm well aware the sharps like Buffalo based on the fact they're 0-2 and at home - but the fact is the sharps aren't always right (e.g. - most recently, MNF where PHI lit up CHI). The Cardinals have already had their "trap" game against NE, and based on the way they played against TB, it's evident they are not treating ANY game as an easy win. The market has yet to price this fact, and if they did, this game would easily be AZ -7 by now. Doing the math, the AZ -3.5 basically indicates AZ wouldn't beat BUF by NOT EVEN 1 TD on a neutral field. I *strongly* disagree with this, esp. after what I've seen of Buffalo and AZ the past week.
A clip of the sharps (including a non-sharp like myself) after the Bears loss against the Iggles on MNF:
Fast facts for the stats guys: Did you know AZ has covered their last 8 road openers? And Bills (in last 12 games) are 3-8-1 against non-divisional opponents?
At the end of the day, if you're thinking BUF will hold the +3.5, you're basically saying Rob Ryan will come up with SUCH a GREAT game plan that he will stall AZ's offense like a 3-wheeled VW bug. Given what I've seen of him this year in BUF, New Orleans, and in Dallas, I cannot say "HELL NO" any more strongly. If anything, Rex's best defense against AZ will be to grind the ball out on the ground 40-50 times a game in the hopes the Bills D doesn't have to withstand AZ's air assault. (After all, that's basically what Yoda (aka Bill Belichick) did against AZ, and it worked well.) One catch: Buffalo doesn't have the defensive personnel to match what NE was able to do, let alone the coaching ability. Rob Ryan already lost his credibility when he said he'd be the first to go if the team loses. Now that he lied about that fact, just like his old man did when he said in his initial Cardinals press conference "You've got a winner in town," I find it hard to believe that the Bills' players really buy into his motivational speeches anymore.
The above said, this should be a resounding win for AZ and -3.5 (and an insult to AZ for only being favored by -3.5). This bet for me will be as big as my Stanford -3 bet tonight against UCLA, and it is big (in relative terms). I know my record this year hasn't been this great, but I'd like to think I have an accurate read on this team for at least this upcoming Sunday. Now if I can just stop losing AZ OU bets by a half point (or essentially one FG or even safety)..
Historical fact #1 regarding any Ryan being a head coach, regardless of team: In big games where a Ryan needed a win badly because his job is on the line, I don't remember when he accomplished that. He sure won't against an offensive mastermind in Arians.
Historical fact #2 regarding any Ryan being a head coach, regardless of team: When a Ryan-led team starts it's downturn, that team crashes and burns very very quickly. What I see in Buffalo this year is the same desperation Buddy Ryan had when he went 4-12 with AZ. The only icing on the cake is to see Rob and Rex Ryan leave off the field before the game ends, and the Buffalo boo-birds are out in full force.
PREDICTION #1: AZ -3.5 (3 unit - no more labeling GOYs for me.. bad, bad luck)
PREDICTION #2: Stanford -3 > UCLA (3 unit). I know this is a NFL thread, but I love this matchup. Gotta go with the pick Professor Donkey put up earlier in the week. Stanford looks like a machine, UCLA not so much, esp. their sad showing against BYU.
Totals to date so far: 1-3 (-304.55 for the year based on each unit equaling $100, but I do make half unit bets, too).
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QUIZ: Can you guess which coach above really brought Phoenix "a winner in town"?