If there is one NFL trend that seems to work every year, it's this one week2 in preseason:
Bet ON any 0-1 SU team, as un underdog vs. a 1-0 SU team
Let's think about this one a bit. I really think if you asked most NFL coaches what they would like their preseason record to be, most would say "2-2, maybe 3-1". No coach wants to bagel in the preseason, but what you really want to avoid is an 0-4 and the possible panic/media pressure from it.
Human nature says that a 1-0 team, will 100% follow the script of using preseason to evaluate talent. However, 0-1 teams and coaches suddenly start thinking about a possible 0-2 start, and how that could turn to 0-3.........maybe it is time to try to win a game. With the little bit of extra motivation (and the jumpstart of getting points) these teams have historically done very well and I see no reason for this trend to not work going forward. This past week went 5-1 ATS as follows (in the case of line moves I tried to use the line on the game the day before it was played):
403 Cin +2 at Det. Cin 30, DET 14. WIN
407 Chic +3.5 at NE. Chic 22. NE 23. WIN.
OK, win on the last play of the game, but note the Bears DID get to the NE 2 and got turned away on 2 plays midway thru the 4th quarter.
419 Car +1 at Ten. Car 26 TEN 16 WIN .
This one did go to pk so maybe I should be excluding it.
427 No +3 at Hou. No 9. Hou 16. LOSE.
Money poured in on the Saints, and the game closed 1.
429 sf +5.5 at DEN. Sf 31 DEN 24. WIN
Money POURED in on Den against the trend. Oops.
431 Kc +2 vs. LA Rams. Kc 20. LA 21. WIN
This was the easiest game of the week to middle, as it opened KC +3, closed at pk'm.
I am currently working on NFL Preaseason Week3, but my take is that trends simply are not as meaningful. I note, you would think playing 0-2 teams vs. 2-0 teams would be a solid money maker but the exact opposite has actually been true!
Stay tuned for preseason releases! In CFB, I have released my 3* CFB GAME OF THE MONTH for the opening game Cal/HAW in Australia. I LOVE this game and we fire NOW on it!
http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY
In MLB we stay RED HOT hitting our 3* Saturday, and our 3* SUNDAY Game Of the Year. I would LOVE to fire a huge MLB play Monday, but the card likely will yield a modest play only......stay tuned!