Hi guys and gals,
I've been extremely fortunate to be included on the Pregame.com website for a few years now, and am looking forward to the 2016 NFL season. By now, my 'niche' is well known:
NFL TOTALS PLAYS...
I joined the staff at Marc Lawrence’s Playbook back in the summer of 2000, and have been with the company (relocated from Cleveland to South Florida in 2004) for 16 years now. I’m a contributor / writer for all Playbook publications (Playbook / Midweek Alert). My official title is Chief Statistician, and I’m charge of scheduling and updating all of our various databases (NFL / CFB / NBA / College Hoops). So I’m one of those ’numbers guys’. And any knowledgeable bettor will agree that: 'SHARPS bet VALUE and NUMBERS… while SQUARES bet TEAMS and LAST WEEK’s results’. I handicap from a technical style, with particular emphasis on playing situational pointspread and OU value out of the database.
What I’m most proud of is the weekly newsletter that I publish. Back in 1996, I noticed that there was a huge ‘hole’ in regards to Over / Under handicapping. So I created a newsletter called the NFL TOTALS TIPSHEET. The definitive guide for NFL Over / Under wagering. This season will honor our TENTH anniversary. The Totals Tipsheet is currently the only publication in America that is devoted exclusively to NFL wagering on Over / Unders. In our nice seasons, we’ve tuned a profit in seven of ‘em. That includes last season, when I came back from my heart attack in November of 2014 to post an overall record of 32-22 in Best Bets (+34 units). All of these Best Bets are offered on the Pregame.com website as paid or free selections.
I try to make a solid a case as possible in my writeups, which on average are 500-700 words…. with plenty of ‘ OU ammo’ from our various databases. So you always get a thoughtful and meaningful analysis with plenty of data when you purchase a King Creole play. As an example, here’s my writeup for the 2016 NFL Playoff GAME of the YEAR (back on Sunday, January 24th):
Sunday, Jan. 24th / #313
6:40pm ET - 3:40pm PT
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL (47-47.5 points)
As we type this on Tuesday, the OU line in the NFC Championship game is 47.5 points. Get your play in AS SOON AS POSSIBLE… as a line move to 48, 49, or 50 points would not surprise us as we get closer to the weekend. The weather forecast (thus far) looks pretty good for Sunday night, with only a 4% chance of precipitation and winds of only 3-4 miles per hour. Based on the current pointspread and OU line, the predicted score of this game is: Carolina 25.5 - Arizona 22. Our database models and simulations differ by a pretty strong margin. The most popular score coming out of our database is: 33 to 27. That’s a margin that’s about 12.5 points higher than the current OU line.
It is FITTING that these two teams are playing each other in the NFC Championship Game. After all, they are the #1 and #2 seeds from this conference. And they are also ranked NUMBER ONE or NUMBER TWO in various offensive statistical categories. They are the ONLY two teams in the league to average more than 30 ppg on the season. Carolina is #1 in offensive points per game with 31.1. Arizona is #2 in offensive points per game with 30.3. Carolina is #1 in rushing (142.6 YPG) and is tied for #1 in OVERS this season at 11-5-1 O/U (tide with the NY Giants). Arizona is #1 in offensive yards per game (405.9) and #2 in passing yards per game (288.5).
It is also FITTING that we get to use both of these teams are our King Creole 5* NFL Playoff Game of the Year. Fitting in that we have been on multiple OVERS this season with BOTH of these teams. It started early in the year. Arizona came out of the gate going OVER the Total in each of their first five games (5-0 O/U). We were ON Arizona OVERS in the following games: Week 2 vs the Bears (71 points)… Week 4 vs the Rams… and Week 5 vs the Lions (59 points). They were basically our ‘go-to’ team for OVERS in the first half of the year. By the time that most of the squares caught on to their great OVER numbers, the value was sucked dry. As a result of higher OU lines, they finished the year with a 1-6 O/U record. We did not play an Arizona OVER in the second half of the season, which was fortunate for us. But a team that we DID play multiple OVERS on in the second half of the season was the Carolina Panthers. For our service, it started in Week 8 when they went OVER against the Packers (final score 37-29). Then three weeks later, we played them OVER in their road game against the Saints (final score 41-38). Then two weeks after that (Week 14), we used their game against the NY Giants as our 10* NFL Game of the Year (OVER 46.5 points). That was the game in which we got to mark up that ‘W’ in the third quarter (final score was 38 to 35). Finally, we were on the Panthers / Seahawks game OVER last Sunday in the Division Round of the Playoffs… and cashed it halfway thru the third quarter. SO the point is, both of these teams have been good to us this year in OVERS… but the timing was crucial as well.
In their last ten games, the PANTHERS have averaged 34.0 points per game. The only two ‘stubs’ were against Tennessee (won 27-10, took foot off the gas in 2nd half when game was in hand)… and on the road against Atlanta in Week 15. At HOME, these ‘Black Cats’ have scored 31 pts… 38 pts… 38 pts… 44 pts… and 37 pts in their last ten games (37.6 ppg).
Arizona has actually had a better offense on the ROAD this season. The CARDINALS have averaged 426.2 yards per game and 3.0 points per game when playing the ‘visitor’ role… compared to 387.1 YPG and 28.0 PPG in their home games, respectively. On thing we can pretty much guarantee in this game: BOTH teams will take MULTIPLE shots downfield with deep passes. Bruce Arians of Arizona is notorious for going DEEP 6-8 times per game.
Elevating this selection to 3*** BEST BET status are 8-9 key systems and situations from our NFL post-season database. Our first query looks at the NFC Championship Game:
The NFC CHAMPIONSHIPS GAME has gone a PERFECT 7-0 O/U since 2002 when the OU line is greater than (>) 42 points (CARDINALS @ PANTHERS). Average combined points in these games: 53.1. EVERY single game had 49 or more points.
15-3-1 O/U since 1983: All NFL Playoff Division Round or Championship Round home favorites of -4 or less points (PANTHERS). Since 2006, these games have gone 7-1-1 O/U.
7-0 O/U since 1986: All .900 or better PLAYOFF favorites of < 12 points (PANTHERS).
7-0 O/U last 7 years: All NFC SOUTH DIVISION Playoff HOME teams (PANTHERS) when the OU line is > 41 points. Average combined points in these games: 60.7.
17-3 O/U since 1982: All NFL Playoff favorites of -3 to -13 points off a Playoff OVER and a Regular Season OVER in their last 2 games (PANTHERS).
11-0-1 O/U since 2008: All NFC WEST DIVISION Playoff UNDERDOGS (CARDINALS). Average combined points in these games: 59.4.
8-1 O/U since 2003: All NFL Playoff road / neutral site teams off a SU Playoff win BUT an ATS loss (CARDINALS) when the OU line is in the range of 42-52 points.
8-1-1 O/U since 2007: All PLAYOFF underdogs off back-to-back ATS losses (CARDINALS) when the OU line is > 41 points.
18-3 O/U since 2002: All PLAYOFF teams off 3 or more UNDERS in a row (CARDINALS) if the last Under was in a Playoff game. These teams have gone 17-1 O/U when the OU line was < 54 points.
In 2016, it’s business as usual… BRING IT ON!
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