Of course we wish everyone the best of luck( BOL) as the mature handicappers all like it when we "beat" the Casinos/Bookies/whatever. Part of the thrill of sports betting.
HOWEVER, if you want to do this for a Living, or even a supplement to your livelihood, there has to be some set parameters, and the biggest challenge is Money Management.
With sound Money Management, you can do "set" probabilities and still come out ahead.
For the Over/Under Season Win Totals, if you have a great "feel" for the team you want to back or pound against, understand that if you "Back" the team, for you to win the $$$ that team MUST beat whatever number is Posted. If you really like ARZ 9.5, they must win 10 for you to get the coin.
Yes, the other Forumites already told us that ARZ has won 10+ 3 years in a row. Hard to do in this Modern "parity" NFL. This NFC West for at least 4 years, 2010 - 2014, THE toughest Division in the NFL and by a WIDE margin. Last year, moderate drop-off via the Rams & 49ers, but SEA & ARZ remained formidable and a play or two here and there they could be hoisting the Lombardi. part of MY basic NFL philosophy is that the top 6 - 8 teams are all capable of winning it all, and usually boils down to a handful of plays either side. More on that on a separate Thread, right before the season starts.
This Thread, ARZ to go OVER 9.5. First 7 second impression: yes, ARZ won 10+ three seasons in a row, but the Book LOWERED their three year average a buck-and-a-half??? Wow!
But what is the Book telling you? Why has that number opened at 9.5?
before I post MY Official O/U plays( her and on YouTube), when I dig the Pit Bull teeth in all of this:
1) Roster changes. This is THE THE THE THE factor that has burned up many a sports player because they just "assumed" the Roster is intact pretty much fro the previous season. This isn't the Casino Giveaway decades of the 1960 - 1980's. This ugly and costly "parity" is clawing for your nickels and dimes, whereas the 60's - 80's there was little-to-NO Roster movement, only natural attrition through retirements and injuries. Today's NFL is catching baseball: trades all the GD time. I guess you guys reading all of this can tell my age by my tone of this b.s. "parity". had I had the money to plunk down in the 60's - 80's that I blew with 25x wagers in comparison( yes, I threw the Coin big time at times), I could have retired in 1985 when the Bears pounded the Pats 46 - 10 as 10-point Chalk. I won 3K, but had that game been in the mid 90's I would have won 6 figures.
My Insurance Man is a BIG DEN fan, and because I shared my picks with him last year everything was great. But a 5 minute conversation yesterday I could sense his instant "dislike" of why I am waiting a few weeks before I make my Report on the Broncos; who is going to be their QB? Von Miller Contract woes? I sort of "bought back some likeablity" with this Insurance man by giving him something he DID like from me: John Elway is THE most capable GM in all of the NFL. He liked that, but truth be told, once the Roster is set, Elway can relive his entire career again and again and it won't matter: only the product on the field when that ref blows that whistle is what is going to count. Nothing more.
2) Is the Book telling you that there is a resurgence of SEA?
3) Is the Book "suggesting" that as the LA Rams moved to LA, some sort of "splash" need to be "shown", "given( don't call NFL Security on me - I know nothing!)", or whatever... No I don't believe in UFO's, I did not see Elvis leave the concert, but I am well aware of Virginia Hill of Bugsy Siegal fame( documented fixed sporting events she cashed in), and the Alex Karras/Hornung fiascos, and the dropped FBI investigation of the late, great Ken Stabler. I read in the WASH Post years ago there in the Federal Courtroom many years ago when QB Art Schlister of the Colts told a packed room full of people that he had to throw the football three times to whoever number 55 Linebacker was, because the first two times the LB was so excited he dropped cinch interceptions. When my father passed, I inherited the Baltimore Colts tickets, until Old man Irsay moved them to INDY in the middle of the night, had denied it for the entire week that happened. Point is: I am looking for the LA Rams to make a splash, with some "help".
4) Is the book telling you that something is WRONG with the Cards? Yes. It is up to us to find out what that drop off might be, how much, then assess.
The Cards only lost 3 regular season games, and the 1st loss was at HOME to the...STL Rams.
The other two losses the Cards looked bad, and got smoked by CAR in the NFC title game. Out of the 12 playoff teams, the Cards and Texans had the biggest margins of diameterics: win big look great, lose big look bad. Hard to keep this 10+ pace. I like the Cards, even went to a game there last year( week 3 they smoked 49ers 44 - 7). But there IS something not quite right. That is easy to say about any team, but more harder to say then PROVE about a Lombardi Trophy Contender.
I am leaning "Under", but will post the Official plays later.
jaxterspix