704 Mil/Bos UNDER 215 Free Play.
The results are in, and the Books crushed it, taking in 132.5 million in Nevada, and holding 13.3 million, 10.1%. Let those results sink in. A hippo on roller skates firing in random bets at -110 would be playing into a house edge of 4.54% only. Yet somehow the books raked in more than DOUBLE that amount as a hold.
Further, the Pros fire on the Super Bowl, and by all accounts, most of them had a solid profitable game. So the betting public lost at a frightening rate on the wagers and props they chose to back.
All of this despite what I read about how much more sophisticated the betting public has become in 2016. Frankly, I just don't see it. There is no doubt that the top bettors (the top 2%) have become WAY more sophisticated. However, after that, my observation is that the other 98% of the players play about the same. Further, I really don't see the bookmakers having evolved much during the past 10 years either. For the most part the system has remained about the same. The key difference is that the very elite top 2% has changed the game and the lines. Lines that are off get hit immediately, and they simply don't last. The elite bettors sharpen up the markets, blink and the the market is semi efficient early in the process, and that certainly was not the case in 2006.
However, the Super Bowl has so much public money that it dwarfs the pros. Once the public starts betting things (like yes on Safety, yes on Overtime, Carolina -5) there typically is not enough money from the sharps to completely offset it.
In the aggregate the market is way more sophisticated in 2016, however the average bettor is pretty much the same as he was in 2002. What's interesting to me is that this is NOT the case when it comes to another game, poker. Here, I have found the average No Limit recreational player to be somewhat stronger than he was ten years ago.
I would welcome the boards thoughts on why this is the case. I think it may well be that many poker strategies are just simpler than optimal sports betting, and those who watch a bit of TV poker have picked up on some solid ideas, and that coverage is just not available to most in the sports betting world. What do all of you think? Do you agree that the average sports bettor is pretty much the same now as he was 10+ years ago?
On the handicapping front, I come in FIRING with a best bet in the NBA AND a best bet CBB "OVER". As most of you know, I tend to land on more 'unders' in baskets, so you know this is a game that should see a great deal of points!
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