BRONCOS +3.5 (1ST HALF) (line played Sat 2/6)
Thank God this game is finally upon us. If I have to hear one more Pregame podcast where Pauley is giving us a movie review or ripping Johnny football, have to hear Marshall give us an unwanted dissertation about his root canal, numerous trips to the west coast, or his lame movie career; Fezzik talking incessantly on EV; plus wondering if he would rather lay 5.5 +106 with the Panthers or take +6 -104 with the Broncos-Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz; or listening to Malinsky tell us about the breathing patterns of the sports-book operators (easier), Cam’s dancing preferences, or how he is calling around town trying desperately to find out who is betting Carolina -5, in addition to mentioning how the turf at Levi Stadium might be a factor in the game (seriously?); and finally our good friend RJ somehow always injecting a Steeler/Tomlin slant in something that has no relevance to today’s game. This is added to the “millions” of gasbag national dopes who are clueless when they attempt to discuss the game from any angle especially from a wagering perspective (at least the Pregame guy’s aren’t clueless). Now you can see why I am thanking God the game is finally here. UGH! Did I mention I love the Pregame Podcasts!
Unlike most people who need to bet the Super Bowl to me this game is no different than a random Jags/Titan week 6 game in October. If I see value and an edge I will play it and if not I will pass. I will say that with the multitude of different props that are available I most assuredly will find an angle that is considered an investment on my part so I wouldn’t be watching this game with no interest. But as "luck" would have it I do have a single edge on a side that fits into my portfolio.
LINE
As of my writing (Thurs. 2/4) I see Denver +6. So what the line tells us is that if this game were played in Charlotte the Panthers would be an 8.5 point favorite. Does this line "wash" with you? I think we can all agree that this line is far too high. So the Broncos from merely a line value assessment appear on the surface to be a great value.
MATCH-UP
OFF rush pass tot DEF rush pass tot
CAR 143.2 225.8 369.0 86.3 239.1 325.4
DEN 107.0 240.6 347.6 81.4 210.9 292.3
Above is the yearly game stats. So where is the "huge" advantage that the public/sharps state there is for the favorite Panthers? They (Carolina) have 37 yard per game rushing advantage over the supposedly better rushing attack of Broncos and a 15 yard less passing attack against the washed up Manning? Defensively they are both very good against the rush while the Broncos have a 29 yard lead against the pass. From a statistical standpoint it appears like 2 even teams playing on neutral site. With the numbers above the game should be more of a pick’em than one team (Carolina) favored by 6.
TRENDS
NFL teams AFTER scoring 40+ points in the playoffs (like Carolina did last game)
are on a 5-23 Against The Spread (18% ATS) losing run their next playoff game (Thanks to RJ).
This goes into my selecting the Broncos 1st half. Teams that score big like Carolina did get lulled into a false sense of security thinking that if they do what they did the last time it will work again and no team will be able to stop them. This goes into the advantage of the 2 weeks between games for the underdog Broncos. The Panthers just want to “keep the train on the tracks” with what they have been doing to put up 40+ last game. Conversely Denver has had 2 weeks to prep for Carolina’s previously successful plan and perceived (on my part) current lack of adjustment for this match-up. This will allow them early to neutralize the Panther plan and take home the 1st half wager. This will change in the 2nd half as the long halftime show will allow the Panthers to make the necessary adjustments to counter a now secure Denver defense. This adjustment will then be the key to the game as a whole and could lead to a Panther comeback or just more frustration as Denver is also adjusting confusing the Panthers even more.
GAME PLAN
Pass, pass, and pass. These were the 1st 3 plays by Denver against New England. Look for this same philosophy as Denver will look to catch the unsuspecting Panthers off guard as they look to stop the expected Bronco running attack. Doing this would allow Manning to hit the quick short and intermediate routs over the on the line cheating Panther LB'S in an attempt to score early and get the lead (ala the Pats game). This early score will send shock waves through the always 1st half leading Panthers and thus allow the Panther pressure up front to back off then allowing the Bronco running game to become a factor. This is where Denver is "all in." If for whatever reason this philosophy doesn’t work it will be difficult for Denver to alter this game plan due to Manning’s limitations. If it all goes haywire forcing Manning exclusively through the air it will play right into the hands of the ultra-aggressive Panther CB'S and LB'S which will undoubtedly cause turnovers leading to a short field and easy points for the Cats.
If this offensive plan for Denver has he aforementioned early success forcing Carolina into producing without their defenses help. Although TE Olsen is a weapon to keep an eye on do wide outs Funches, Brown, Ginn, Cotchery, etc. actually induce a realistic fear in the hearts of the Bronco defenders? In addition although Stewart is a valuable cog to the ability of Carolina to run the read option, if one keys on him it would virtually make the zone read option nonexistent. This deduction is due to the fact that although capable of taking the ball himself QB Newton rarely runs in normal situations off the read option. Cam's "dagger" comes with his legs primarily inside the opponents 10 and when it is 3rd or 4th and short where he and the Panthers are deadly. Granted he can make a play with his legs in the open field but this is primarily due to a pass play breakdown where he creates mayhem out of nothing. By taking out Stewart and forgoing a pass rush to contain Newton in the pocket it will force Cam to make plays though the air to the WR/TE than induces no tangible fear outside of TE Olsen. If this occurs Newton is prone to a low completion rate and careless miscues of his own an if the Denver defense is successful on this front look for Newton's true colors to come out with visible forms of frustration shown to his teammates and the coaches who won’t have the answers needed since they have deferred to him (Newton) throughout the year to get out of any jam.
Lastly a team even with the right game plan still needs to be talented to execute this plan as to install their will. In looking at this match-up the argument could be made that Denver is every much as talented (if not more) as Carolina is at every position (minus QB). My trepidation with Carolina is not one of the talent quotient in as much as it is with their minds (mental makeup).
Lastly not much has been made of both teams coaching experience (or lack thereof) in this spot. It will be interesting to see if this game is tight in the 2nd half which coach makes the right call or chokes up. Whether to go for it on 4th down, kick a FG, punt, challenge a call etc. I will say that I actually think the best coaches in this game are the 2 QB’s on the field (Manning/Newton) and that they themselves might be making most of the “tight” calls with the coach acquiescing to the individual QB’s demands.
MIND
The Broncos unlike the team 2 years ago which was offense dependent, blew teams out, and were not ready for the intense tight playoff games. This Denver club is vastly different and much better prepared for the battle today. This Bronco team week in and week out have been in dogfights that came down to the wire. The inner season QB quandary has led the Broncos to realize if they’re going to win it is the defense that has to come up big. Knowing that the offense can’t score more than 20-25 points per game the defense has built the toughness and resiliency that can’t be implemented when the offense is the main part of a team. No longer is this team in shock when things are not clicking with the offense as the defense has become used to this quandary in so much that they have no problem going toe to toe with the other team’s offense to get the win. The more the QB's struggled the more the defense got stronger as to say "don't worry we got this" and lead the team to victory. Also I think the “rest” Manning took during the year opened his eyes to what retirement looks like and that he isn’t the same QB as in the past. This realization was an epiphany as he saw that die to his demise it can be like it was before (him being the offensive weapon of the past) and that he can make his life much easier and if he truly trusted his defense all he had to do is just has to make a few plays while using his superior mental capabilities, simply managing the game and not make a critical error so his team would have an opportunity to win. The only way this current Bronco team would not have a chance to win is if he himself screwed it up. Manning realized this and has played conservative and unlike before where this would have crushed his psyche and give him great inner turmoil he now has accepted this seismic shift in mentality to the delight of both his teammates and coaches for whom are thankful and now all on the same page. When it comes to Manning the body might be gone but the mind is sharp. This intelligence will play a huge factor if Denver is successful. Manning’s mind and his leadership on how to orchestrate this team is a strength that can’t be matched and is the reason why it is he (Manning) and not the healthier and more athletically equipped QB Osweiler that Denver will sink or swim with in pursuit of a title.
Conversely Carolina although very opportunistic defensively is heavily dependent on Cam. His leadership and confidence as permeated through this team leading them to new heights that has them an astounding 22-2 in their last 24. As Cam goes so goes the Panthers as the team just feeds of his play allowing them to focus on their assignments which in return results in a free and open style of play on both sides of the ball. The offense sets the table by scoring early and often against teams that had no time to prep and had no idea what was about to hit them when a 6-5 240 QB with elite skills is unleashed upon them. This quick strike Cat offense empowers the defense to take chances and with their aggressiveness and athleticism made spectacular plays on their own that led to an inflation of the scoreboard that in reality needed no more inflating. This in my opinion this is where the 2 week prep and the added focus on opponent which the big stage of the Super Bowl will bring will be a great advantage. Denver will not be in awe, ready for the big stage, focused for the opponent, and what Newton brings to the table.
In addition the Panthers have been playing the "nobody believes in us" card to the hilt this year as they have made it a point to all who will listen that the "world doesn’t believe in us." Funny how I have heard none of this kind of talk this week since if they did bring this to our attention as 6 point favorites and 80% of the money being wagered on them would just be foolish. In addition Cam is now bringing topics (Race) that have no basis on the game itself into play which has all the media “jackals” buzzing and which forces his teammates to address the issue all of which deters the mental side of the game’s preparation. In addition with Cam’s need for the spotlight and pressure to perform in the biggest of spotlights does this need combined with his Super Bowl inexperience cause him to forgo the smart play that was designed for others to make the play himself ending in a cataclysmic error which changes the outcome!? This will be something worth watching as the game (if tight) unfolds.
Conversely Denver is eating up the underdog role as they now are the team nobody believes in. The Broncos seem to relish this spot as they put up great efforts twice as home underdogs this year against quality opponents (GB/NE). This familiarity of the underdog role has led to a new found resiliency and toughness that GM Elway clamored for ever since they were embarrassed and physically beaten down by Seattle in this game a mere 2 years ago. Although the turnover from the team 2 years ago has been drastic the main cogs of the team remain and they remember the feeling they had on this stage and are determined not to let it happen again.
CONCLUSION
In the end I could be dead wrong about this selection. If Denver doesn’t come out and put points on the board allowing Carolina to score first this game could get out of hand early. Carolina would then get comfortable and this game would morph into most games of the season for the quick starting Cats that enforce their will and run over teams like a runaway freight train. But if they don’t and Denver opens it up early, caches Carolina flat footed and scores first the whole tenor of the game will change and this is why the 1st half Bronco bet. I feel you will know how this game is going right away allowing one to enjoy the rest of the day drinking, eating, and conversing with guests without the hassle of gripping one’s bet.
Personally I would like to see Carolina challenged on this big stage. Not only will this mean that I have a solid investment but I also want to see how the Panthers (who have deferred to Cam all year when things got semi tough-which he has come through big) handle the adversity when the lights are the brightest in a favorite role. Since they have been so Cam dependent they to a man haven’t had to take over themselves and bail him (Cam) out. Unlike Manning who although less talented than Cam one could say he is still the smartest QB in the game Cam still has a lot to prove with his decision making in key spots. Cam’s ability to handle the big stage (as a Pro) is in doubt and could be the determining factor in a tight low scoring affair. If it is low scoring this will give Denver confidence that their initial game plan is working. The “neutral” crowd will comes to back the underdog Broncos in their hopes of viewing history as to view Manning rides off into the sunset. This low score will produce the seeds of doubt in the minds of the Panthers asking themselves “why isn’t his as easy as the others” and could cause hesitation which will produce unforced mental errors. The pressure to preform and put on a show will be fully on Cam's shoulders as he is expected to usher out a "washed up" and broken down Manning into retirement.
If the Bronco defense riles up Cam and forces him to adjust his game and he is unable to do this and live up to the demands of his team and the expectations of the nation we all will now be able to view the frustration building with the disillusionment and discourse rearing its ugly head. This conflict will show as arguments with teammates and/or coaches in a vain attempt to change the course of the “train” that was running so smoothly for so long now is abruptly careening out of control as Denver holds off a valiant and desperate effort in the end vs a stunned and demoralized Panther club.
In the end I will take the 1st half dog Broncos in a game that I feel will be decided early. Either the Broncos get off to quick start then holding on desperately to the end or Carolina comes out early with Cam being on fire and unstoppable with the Panther defense forcing a frail and over-matched Manning into miscues allowing Carolina to post their score. I will side with the dog Broncos to impose their collective will early and find a way to get it done in the end allowing the “old man” Manning to "dab" and "dance" his way out of hall of fame career on top!
Enjoy the game and thanks to all the correspondents this year from/to my post. See you again next year!
JUST FOR FUN PROP: *Does not count on seasonal overall record*
WILL THERE BE A TWO POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPTED-YES +210
LAST WEEK:
1-0-0
SEASON TO DATE:
35-18-1/66%
2 SEASON TOTAL TO DATE:
2015/35-18-1/66%
2014/34-24-4/59%
TOTAL/69-42-5/62%
GOOD FORTUNE TO ALL-PhD!