After a couple of quiet Super Bowl betting days in Las Vegas, Tuesday morning offered some activity where three sports books had some movement with their spread.
"We had a couple of professional come in and take the Broncos at +5.5 EVEN for $30,000 each (MGM limit for known pro bettors), one at the Bellagio and one here (Mirage), said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback. "Jay (MGM Resorts VP Rood) and I talked about where our position was at -5.5 -120 and decided to knock it down a nickel."
The action taken at +5.5 (EVEN) at MGM books with Denver was a completely different story from what they had seen the first few days of wagering last week when Carolina was an overwhelming public choice that drove their line up from the opener of -4 to -5.5 in two days.
"At -5.5 -120, we had a 3-to-2 ticket count ratio on the Panthers, but the cash was 2-to-1 in favor of the Broncos," said Stoneback.
So where will the line go from here? Stoneback offered his opinion.
"I think the trend we're seeing now with Denver support is more of what we'll see over the weekend. I could actually see this game closing -4.5."
Most people who consider themselves sharp know the spread is inflated about twice what it should be and while they're waiting for the best number possible, they also know +6 might be the ceiling.
On Tuesday morning, Boyd Gaming made the move from -6 to -5.5, a pair of numbers they've been bouncing around over the past week. Almost at the exact same time, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook took their first plunge into -6 territory after being at -5.5 since Wednesday.
"We're just heavy at -5.5 and went to -6 to see if any there was anyone willing to take +6," said SuperBook assistant manager Jeff Sherman.
The answer is likely 'Yes', there will be, but with six major books showing +6, that Denver money is waiting for a better number. "What's the hurry" is what most bettors looking to bet the Broncos might say with so many options available on a Tuesday.
There's plenty of time, but it will be up to the public where the number goes from here and we've only seen a small fraction of the overall handle that will occur. Right now the books are handicapping public perception to help themselves formulate a plan of risk at each number, while also being ready for anything on the fly such as The Wynn and MGM books who usually get at least one $1 million wager from one of their house whales.
Handicapping the public isn't always an exact science, such as in 2003 when a few books handicapped expected public and sharp Raiders (-4) action to come late against the Buccaneers. It never came and the Bucs rolled 48-21. Even then when forecasting wrong, after all the props and futures were posted Nevada books still won $5.2 million.