Analysis of above props:
3* Denver/Carolina 1H under 23 (possible upgrade to 4*)
Rec'd playing asap at 23
My model has this game landing 43.5, so I think it will be lower scoring. Denver has the highest defensive effic in the league. Carolina is second in def effic and faces a Denv off that is 23rd in effic. In addition, Super Bowl have been played traditionally low scoring early...teams play tight/conservative.
3* Highest Scoring Quarter in Points by Both Teams Under 19.5 (-110)
See analysis above. This is one of my biggest wagers of the year. Of the 72 quarters Den played this year they went over 19.5 in 8 of 72 (11%). Carolina went over in 10 of 72 (14%). This includes the multiple subpar defenses they played (specifically Car who played the easiest strength of schedules. We should be laying hefty juice here...mispriced!
1* Total fumbles lost by both teams under 1.5 (-165)
Once a ball is on the ground it is 50/50 who recovers it, but I do believe some teams are better at protecting the ball than others. Add in the fact that they will be extra careful not making the big mistake and hence the under play. Both these teams are good at protecting the ball. Carolina fumbled 12 times (best in league, lost 9). Denver was 4th in league with 16 fumbles (8 lost). So, total they fumbled <1 per game (hence would lost at most 1 in this game).
1* Den Broncos Punter (Britton Colquitt) over 5.5 punts (-120)
Den averaged 5.25 punts/game. This is all inclusive...versus a very good defense in Carolina they will have at least 6. They had 6 v pitt and 9 vs NE.
1* Total net yards under 664.5 or better(-110)
As of Satur night this is 691.5
This goes along with my above analysis. My model calls for 621 yards.
1* First Score of game NOT a TD (+130)
Again, I see this game starting slow. Carol first score not a TD 50% of the time and Denv first score not a TD 67% of the time this year. Hence, we should be laying juice here. Great value on the +130.
1* Split between Hillman under 38.5 rushing yards and 11.5 rush attempts
In the playoffs Hillman is 11/16 yards and 16/38 yards (2.4 YPR) while CJ Anderson is 16/72, 15/72, 15/95 his last 3. Kubiak made a comment after last game referring to making CJ the primary back. Now is not the time to give Hillman reps.
1* Olson over 5 reception (-140)
Olsen averages 5 recep/game and Denv is 24th in def effic vs tight ends. Given Denver's defensive strength, I think Cam will need to use Olson as a release valve.