I’ve thought a lot about pick guarantees over the years … and my main problem with them is a BIG ONE:
You PAY MORE for winning picks if they are guaranteed!
The math is simple … the sites double the price of the pick, so they only need to win 50% of the time to make the same money (and if they actually win over 50%, you pay more!).
With the purchase of many picks over time, a customer will win some and lose some … but in net he will pay less (as a result of the guarantee) only if he wins LESS than 50% of the time! Not only is that not a good deal, it’s deceiving … because the promotion of a “guarantee” creates the false appearance of less risk and the true cost over the long run is obscured. This is plainly wrong, offensive, and dangerous.
There’s one selective area where I think guaranteed picks can offer an advantage … with the very biggest special picks.
One of my great laments is people betting TOO MUCH on big plays. As a bettor, I personally love big plays … I want to know when a Pro is extra confident. Personally I bet “only” 1.5X of my standard bet on GOY type players. Perhaps the case can be made that 2X is ok … But more than that is a mistake.
Why do people bet too much on big plays? One reason is the impression that some sites give that big plays are “locks.” In this regard Pregame Pros do a great job of stressing that there are no sure things.
One advantage of occasional, selective guaranteed picks ... the customer would seem to be encouraged to think about BOTH possible results … Hopefully making it easier for them to think soberly about the financial reality (bet result plus cost) of both winning and losing … instead of the gut reaction: big pick means MORE!
The higher price of special picks also encourages the gut reaction of MORE. What I'm excited about is I think we can discourage customers from betting irresponsibly while also fixing the “double price” problem of typical guaranteed picks.
Our plan is to offer a 100% Guarantee on SELECT, occasional special picks at a reduced premium ... instead of DOUBLING the price, only a 50% premium for the guarantee.
The impact of this discounted guarantee program is huge … the math says: YOU WILL PAY LESS for the VERY BEST PICKS … unless the you win OVER 66% of these picks. And as anybody knows, if you somehow win over 66% of your big picks, well ... that's a good problem!
Keep in mind …
* Pregame’s typical pricing (that thousands purchase at each month) will be the baseline for the pricing of these special guaranteed picks (unlike the made-up non-guaranteed prices the full-time guaranteed pick sites try to pass off)
* Each Pro will decide when to have a special pick. It will not be often. And it will only be when he has high confidence in a pick … cause unless he wins a high percentage, the Pro will earn significantly less.
Also keep in mind that it’s key that our guarantee offer will be rare … otherwise, the winning and losing evens out in the long run even for a coin flipper … but when the guarantee is only occasional, the Pros bottom line will be significantly affected by each win (and each loss).
As we’ve always stressed, if you are betting regularly and grinding, a steady and clear cost for picks helps the bettor make the best decisions (even more important, the typical Pregame approach makes clear the cost of picks instead of the deceptive daily guarantees that charge fully in the long run for 50% winners) … while it makes sense for especially big picks to be considered on an individual basis (hopefully discouraging many from follow the mindset of MORE).
Obviously in the short-term Pregame will make less by charging less for our very best picks … but don't feel bad: we expect to make MORE in the long-run … because the bargain priced best picks will offer great value to our customers ... plus removing the motivation to bet extra big to make up for the cost will decrease those over-betting Pregame's best games.
We are testing out this approach with a special Gobbler Guarantee.
5 Days … 5 Special Plays over the Thanksgiving Holiday from 5 Elite Pros.
NFL on Thursday from Dave Essler.
CFB on Friday from Goodfella.
CFB on Saturday from Spartan.
NFL Sunday from Fezzik.
MNF on Monday from the Gold Sheet's Bruce Marshall.
3* Best Bets and BIGGER. High confidence action each day.
Plus, an exclusive coupon for 50% OFF any additional best bets you might want from now through Monday! Use as many times as you’d like.
Buying the 5 picks picks separately would be $125 or more.
We are offering all 5 discounted for $99.
Typically, we would have sold many packages at that price.
Now, with our new Guaranteed Program … for only 50% more, you get a 100% guarantee.
Pay $149 … and if you don’t profit, you get a 100% credit.
Don't delay - the Guaranteed Gobbler will no longer be offered once the Thursday Big Pick kicks off on Thanksgiving. Enjoy the biggest action each day all Holiday weekend with a rare profit guarantee! Act now and pay less for Pregame's best picks.
And please provide your feedback on our effort to improve the big pick experience at Pregame …
RJ