if they didnt have a chance they wouldnt play the game.....
that said, its a low number and will torched up to nine or ten with teaser and parlays hitting it so if you do want it get it before it gets early. not sure i fully appreciate the revenge angle. every flipping week somebody says brady and belly will tee off on someone out of spite. im starting to think it is just blowhards that cant cap coming up with an "i told you so" in the case they crack it wide open and win by 20. These guys always try to win by 20. its not extra motivation the books dont know about, its factored expectation of what they will try to accomplish in any game cut back in half so that it can realistically be sold. you think anyone is going to lay pats into parlays and teasers at -18? sure vegas takes a hit on the public darling, but in the end they get it back on failed teaser, failed parlays, and the eventual 1 every 5 games that somebody gives the pats more chew than they bit
that said, i wont play colts unless it gets into double digits and even then id need to see 12. so ill lay some on the low number and see what happens. ill say this, id prefer to have hasselback and a vanilla game play than luck coming back probably still hurting trying to do too much. if luck is definitely starting then ill look to play the pats second time around