Coach Fletcher’s Sunday NFL Free Play
Sunday, October 4
10 am Carolina at Tampa Bay
The Pick Carolina -3
3-0 Carolina Visits 1-2 Tampa Bay
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and QB Jameis Winston will try to get their offense going against A Carolina defense that bends but doesn’t break too often. The lack of Buc offense has hurt them this year. Carolina’s offense is all the potent either.
Carolina averages 23.7 points per game and the defense allows just 16.0., That’s the main reason they are 3-0. Offensively they run for 132 yards per game and pass for 216 for a total offense of 348 yards per game.
Defensively they are tough on the ground game allowing only 75.7 yards per game but they do give up 239.3 in the air for a total of 315.
It appears that Tampa is going to have some trouble running the ball. They average only 96 yards per game on the ground. With Carolina’s stout defensive line, that’s bad news for Winston. The lack of a running game has killed more than one passing quarterback. Tampa does pass for 212 per game so they should be able to throw at least a little against Carolina’s softer pass defense. But if Carolina stops their run game, it’s going to be a long day for the Bucs.
Tama only averages 16.3 points per game which fits well with the Carolina defensive toughness. They will no doubt have a hard time scoring unless they get help from special teams or turnovers. The Bucs have also given up 26.7 points per game. They allow 138 on the ground and 210.3 in the air.
Carolina opened on the road against a better than advertised Jacksonville team. The Panthers won 20-9 as 3 point favorites. They held the Jags to 96 yards rushing and 169 in the air. They also collected 3 turnovers. The Panther ground game ran for just 105 yards in 35 carries and they gained 158 in the air – not am impressive offensive effort gaining only 263 yards.
Game 2 the Panthers beat the Texans 24-17 as 3 point chalk. They found their running game going 172 yards in 32 carried and passed for 178. They stuffed Houston’s run game giving only 61 yards on the ground but 239 in the air. They got 1 turnover in this one.
Game 3 the 10 point favorites hosted a Drew Brees-less New Orleans team. They won 27-22 but didn’t cover. The offense went for 189 on the ground and Newton finally found a few targets and threw for 312. Once again they stuffed the run, allowing the Saints just 70 yards, but the Saints threw for 310. The Panthers got 2 more turnovers to make it 6 TO’s on the year against just 2 of their own.
There is nothing spectacular about the Carolina offense. Newton is clever but he doesn’t have a lot of options. They should be able to run a little better against the Bucs and throw as well.
Tampa opened up with a pathetic performance at Tennessee where they were blasted 42-14 as 3 point dogs. They ran for 92 yards and threw for 181 and turned the ball over 2 times. They allowed the Titans to run for 124 and pass for 185.
As the world wondered how Tampa could be so bad, they went into New Orleans as nearly 10 point dogs and surprised with a 26-19 win. They were able to run for `139 and pass for 194, but turned it over twice again. They were fairly tough on the NO offense giving up 104 on the ground and 219 in the air from an injured Drew Brees. The Saints turned it over 3 times,
With hope once more in the air, the Bucs traveled to winless Houston as 6 point dogs. The offense came up empty and the Texans collected the 19-9 win. Tampa ran for just 57 yards in 20 carries and passed for 261. They committed only 1 turnover. Houston ran the ball at will for 186 yards in 46 carries and completed 24-39 for 227 yards. I’m sure that Carolina has watched a lot of film on this game to see how the Texans dissected the Tampa defense and stuffed the offense. Ball control was the name of the game and it worked.
A couple of injuries could hurt the Panthers in this one. I think they can overcome the difficulties because they have the better personnel. Defensive start Luke Kuechly missed the last two games with a concussion and it appears he will also miss this one. But the defense has been strong enough without him in the past 2 games to handle the Buc offense. With a bye week coming up, Kuechly will probably sit this one out.
Newton is going to need to improve. He ranks near the bottom with a low 56.6 completion percentage. But last week he showed his stuff by going 20 of 31 for 315 yards and 2 TDs. He also ran one in.
The Panthers shouldn’t worry about the Bucs run game, but the pass game could be problematic. Carolina ranks 2nd in the league in points allowed and 3rd in the league in opponents yards per rush at 3.34.
While Newton is near the bottom of the league in completion percentage, Jameis Winston is at the bottom of the league with just a 52.2 % completion rate. He was sacked 7 times in the first few games but the Texan’s supposedly fierce front line wasn’t able to down him.
Tampa is tied for 29th in the league in scoring and is 27th in rushing. I see more of the same happening tomorrow. On 3rd down last week, Tampa was just 1 for 12 and Winston’s completion percentage on 3rd down was just 40.6 %. He was also picked 3 times. Even though the Texans didn’t flatten him, they put plenty of pressure on him.
The Bucs have a 10 game him losing streak which I believe we roll to 11 after Sunday’s matinee. Carolina has won 4 straight including both last season with Newton sidelined. Newton has 10 TDs through the air and 6 on the ground in 6 games against the Bucs. I like Carolina in this one.
The Pick Carolina -3