Sorry for repost but I'm having problem editing my old post; heck I can't even delete the old one. Oh well!
WEEK 4 - ST. LOUIS RAMS VS ARIZONA CARDINALS
(Sidenote: since this is an NFC West opponent, this analysis will be longer than normal since I follow NFC West opponents closely.)
Two of the NFL's lowest profile teams square off this Sunday in AZ. However, just because this game is low profile doesn't mean it's not important. IF STL wins, then they will have beaten two top tier teams this year. If AZ wins, they'll be 4-0..
As usual, intangibles come into play. Did you know..?
- Under Arians, Arizona has won 3 straight against STL.. with 3 different QBs? (Palmer, Stanton, and the worst playoff QB ever - Lindley.)
- (As for that 4th game, that was the first game of the Arians/Palmer/Bowles era, but AZ gave up a 11 point lead in the 4th and lost the game.)
- STL's front 4 is the BEST front 4 (and maybe front 7) in the league. On the other hand...
- STL's offense/offensive talent might be the worst in the league.
- Larry Fitz OWNS the Rams secondary and has done his best work against them. Something about the Rams secondary just gets him going.
- Same goes with DB Patrick Peterson. He is a football magnet against the Rams.
- Arians *hates* the fact that STL's defense is talked about more than AZ's.
- Overheard after a December win against STL in STL, Arian says: "I love it when nobody says you have a chance to win. There is an 11-3 team and a team that is always 8-8," Arians said. "You figure it out."
- Word on the street is that there's bad blood between Arians and Fisher. In one way or another, they were opponents on many Sundays when Arians was with PIT and IND.
- Adding to this bad blood is the fact Arians has wondered how he got passed over for head-coaching vacancies when folks like Fisher got hired over and over as a head coach (despite his mediocre record). Meanwhile, Arians was thisclose from retirement (until Chuck Pagano made him the IND O-coordinator).
What comes to mind first when capping this game is the fact AZ has won 3 straight against STL, regardless of who was at QB. Why does AZ do so well against STL while SEA always seem to struggle in one way or another against STL? Simple: AZ constantly attacks the STL secondary. Some folks think Janoris Jenkins is a good DB; I definitely do not. I've seen him too many AZ WRs light him up.
The second thing that comes to mind is the trench battle: AZ's O-line against STL's D-line. STL's front 4 is second to none. However, is AZ's O-line good enough to give Palmer time to throw? Or any AZ QB for that matter? To answer this question, you'd want to look at the last year's head to head matchups.
Here is AZ's starting O-line in game #1 in 2014 last year:
- Veldheer (LT), Massie (RT), Sendlein (C), Fanaika (RG), Larsen (LG) = created a whoppin' 28 (!) yards against STL*
Here is AZ's starting O-line in game #2 in 2014 last year:
- Veldheer (LT), Massie (RT), Sendlein (C), Larsen (RG), Cooper (LG) = generated 143 yards against STL**
Here is AZ's starting O-line this year against Rams this Sunday:
- Veldheer (LT), Massie (RT), Sendlein (C), Larsen (or Iupati?) (LG), Cooper (RG) = ??? (Update: Iupati will start!)
* - Palmer got hammered this game, but the irony is he tore his knee on basically a non-contact injury. (Go figure!) Andre Ellington was injured for most of the year, he played horribly.
** - First game 1st round pick OG Jonathan Cooper finally entered the starting lineup after dealing with lingering injuries past 18 months. Only RBs for this game were Kerwynn Williams and Stepfan Taylor... but still they ran for 143 yards against STL! And Ryan Lindley was the QB this game!!!
As formidable as the STL front 4 is, the Cards have the horses this year to battle in the trenches. The Cards were horrible running the ball last year because:
1) Interior 3 linemen (Larsen, Fanaika, and Sendlein) were terrible
2) their RBs were constantly injured or playing limp all year (e.g. - Ellington). It's not a coincidence that AZ ran for 100+ yards when OG Cooper entered the starting line up. This guy is a very agile battering ram.
3) Their TEs couldn't stay healthy or weren't that good at blocking
That said, in 2015:
1) AZ's O-line is "top-10 in the NFL" caliber. As mentioned before, the Cards might be sending 3 OL to the Pro Bowl (Veldheer, Cooper, and Iupati).
2) AZ *signficiantly* upgraded their RB corp this year. AZ's top 3 RBs (Ellington, Johnson and Johnson) have homerun speed, are shifty, and can all catch! (David Johnson is a beast with breakaway speed.. think Forte with faster wheels.)
3) AZ's TEs haven't been blocking or catching this well.. ever. Fells and Gresham are excelling in Arian's offense.
Moral of the story: AZ's O-line, TE, and RBs were much weaker/crappier last year, but still managed to run for 143 yards against a formidable STL. Do you really think AZ is THAT concerned with the STL D-line this year? Should you be? (I am not.)
Moral of the story part 2: AZ's O-line, TE, and RBs go against a top 5 defensive line and a very good crop of run-stopping linebackers/safeties every day... IN PRACTICE. Do not underestimate how good Gunter, Rucker, and Campbell is on the D-line. I did mention in prior weeks AZ has great depth in the trenches, too.
On offense, the Cards are explosive. What I thought the Cardinals would be on offense a year ago has finally materialized.
If you're STL, who do you cover? Odds are Larry Fitz will take on a LB, a safety, or a 3rd DB. John Brown is a burner and runs great routes (and has decent hands). Floyd is still a good mid to deep threat and he is huge. (I haven't even mentioned the other WRs the Cards have that are very good, too.) That said, let's say STL has the WRs covered.. the Cards have TE's that can catch. And RBs. In other words, as the saying goes: "Pick your poison."
Offensive item to watch out for this game: watch for AZ to attack Janoris Jenkins. Like I said before - I don't know why this guy is regarded highly. If history is any indication, this guy going to get a lot of balls (and flags) thrown against him. Cover your eyes, folks.. pray for him.
How explosive is AZ on offense? Explosive enough to create a famous video game (Tecmo Bowl) in their honor:
https://www.facebook.com/bryce.mcbride/videos/10153226261782775/
On the flip side of the spectrum, you have STL on offense. I'm not going to go into much analysis with them, other than the fact:
- They're horribly unproductive
- Their heavy into the running game - even though their shuffled O-line looks and plays like AZ's last year. (I don't care if a team has Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch: If the OL is bad, the RBs probably aren't going very far.)
- Nick Foles doesn't have weapons to throw to.
- Who is their go-to-guy when the pressure is on?
Other things to look out when STL is on offense:
- Watch for trick plays, because desperate, low-scoring offenses resort to this tactic.
- If STL cannot run the ball (and odds are, they won't be able to), watch for Foles to be forced to throw in 3rd and long situations.
- How well with STL's newly-shuffled O-line handle the AZ crowd? (History will indicate not very well; expect a good chunk of false starts.)
So how can STL win, let alone cover? This is how:
- Palmer goes down due to an unguardable STL pass rush. But even then, that's no guarantee because Stanton is a capable backup.
- Palmer throws pick 6's.
- AZ on offense has a case of the fumbleitis.
- AZ tackles poorly
- AZ's defense takes them lightly and lets their TE, Jared Cook, grab 3 TDs. (Historical note: Cook burned the Cardinals badly in the first matchup last year, but got shut down in the 2nd matchup.)
See a trend here? If you think STL will cover, you're basically hoping on things that haven't happened much when Palmer starts for AZ.
OUTLOOK AND PREDICTION FOR WEEK 4:
The Cardinals know they are good (but are not being overly cocky). Skeptics will look at the last 3 games and say they're probably "the worst 3 teams in the league." What these skeptics don't understand is that AZ struggled heavily with these games in the past. A year ago (heck, a good chunk of the past 20+ years), these games would be 3 point games or games that would be coming down to the last drive. Now, AZ is outright dominating these bottom rung carcasses, showing absolutely *no* mercy. Basically, if AZ was NE or SEA, people would be awed on how great AZ is instead of focusing on the fact that AZ played 3 teams on the bottom rung of the NFL.
Just in case if you haven't noticed: the gap between the AZ D and the STL O is as big as the Grand Canyon (in AZ's favor, of course). The gap between AZ's O and STL's D is bigger than people realize (which is in AZ's favor, FYI).
Also, another key factor these skeptics are totally dismissing: AZ has been playing in the toughest division the past few years. They are battle-tested like no other team as the NFC West is quite the meat grinder. AZ's rise from doormat to SB contender in a few years is directly attributed to their GM's (Steve Keim) deft roster moves and drafting. Unlike the clueless predecessor Rod Graves, Keim knew that they were getting physically beat up consistently by the 49ers, Seahawks, and the Rams. As a result, he slowly (but surely) upgraded the talent and depth in the trenches, and now these investments are paying a hundred-fold. This 2015 team is built to withstand quite a few injuries without sacrificing a lot of production.
The last time I saw the Cardinals instill this much fear around the NFL is when Kurt Warner was leading the team in 2009.
However, the 2015 Cardinals are even BETTER than the 2008/2009 Cardinals, because this year's defense can match up with ANY offense in the league. Their D isn't 2000 Ravens dominant (not even close), but they'll wreak havoc (if their last 3 opponents were any indication).
If you're backing STL, good luck. I haven't seen anything from them this year that makes me think AZ will not cover this Sunday. History hasn't shown that, either.
Last but not least, do not underestimate a coach who is sick of hearing how good the Rams defense is. If the Rams was a person, Arians would not only cut off his neck but also put 6 bullets into him to make sure he is dead.
PREDICTION #1: AZ -6.5 **BIG BET** (something like 27-14)
PREDICTION #2: RAMS UNDER 17.5 (STL can only score 6 points against PIT at home.. and all of a sudden their offense will improve by 10 points at AZ? I don't think so!)
Sidenote: If the Cards are down at halftime, always take the Cards for the 2nd half, spread be damned.