6.5 Tease
Tampa Bay +13
First off i think Tampa is live for this game...I do have a few concerns however for the +6.5 here...Ryan Mallett threw the ball last week 58 times..He completed a total of 27 passes..That % of completions is just miserable...Let's not forget though that this was not Mallett's team coming into the year....The overhaul of passes last week was really to get some timing and comfort down..He worked in the starters and his group of 2nd string guys...Houston wanted to win the game obviously, but Mallett needed to work with the first team in that game to prep for this week...Let's not overlook the coach in OBrien for the Texans..He is one of the best QB coaches in the league..He had all of what happened in that game last week and this entire week to get Mallett comfortable...I really think this Houston team is live as well here...The main effort will have to come on the defensive end for the Texans..I'm sure all the talk in the locker room is to just hold the Buccaneers to 17 points or less and we can win this game..FWIW i think Houston can hold Tampa to a lower scoring total...We all know that Houston plays a mucky game no matter who they have playing..They just aren't a flashy team at all...Even with Foster they never really took the top off a defense...Note: Houston has a banged up Hopkins, and this can limit the amount of fire power on the outside...I favor the Buccaneers WR by a decent margin here..I feel Houston will grind down the clock and try to manage what Mallett does here in his 2nd game..He should have some decent passes and the Houston run game i think can have decent success moving the chains Vs. the Bucs defense..Bucs up front are "ok" but they will allow teams to gobble up some yards...Tampa on the other hand has a nice win under the belt..They just took it to the Saints and the feel good story of the NFL this week...For the record i think Winston will be a "Good" QB in this league..He was primed in college for the NFL...He is one of the calmest guys i have ever seen in the pocket..Pressure situations never seem to rattle him...Tampa on the outside might have a big day receiving the ball..Big targets and Winston has developed a relationship with these guys now..The run game for the Bucs is something to take serious for a lesser team like the Texans..I think the Bucs like the Texans will gain some yards on the ground..Tampa will have no problem mucking up the game..I think Houston sets the tempo here...If you ask me if i think Tampa can win straight up...YES....If you ask me do i think Tampa can lose by 7...YES...If you ask me do you think Houston wins this game by 13 or more points...NO....I doubt they can win by that margin here...Tampa is live and +13 is a ton for a team like Houston to lay..Even at home..They just have to many wrinkles right now and the star players for this game are on Tampa..The star players for Houston are on the sideline or no longer on the team..Yes i consider JJ Watt a star and he will be a handful in this game...Tampa should have no problem keeping this within the number....I do caution the +6.5...Something is telling me 24-17 either way..I don't want to get hooked here with the public all over Tampa...I'll take a dive through all the key numbers and a few quality others as well.
Buffalo + 9
The Miami Dolphins have shown me nothing so far this year ..For the record i'm high on the Dolphins, but that has been fading fast...A lackluster showing week 1 in Washington was one thing, but losing to Jacksonville week 2 is another..Tannehill has looked rather bad..He is missing passes that my grandmother can complete...Miller out of the backfield has looked rather blah and the only real threat the Dolphins have is Jarvis Landry....They will now face a defense and offense coming off a loss...The Bills defense will respond here..The way they got lit up by Tom Brady won't sit well..Tannehill hates pressure and i look for the Bills to really take it out on Tannehill here today...Now it is a road game for the Bills and in the Division..Miami is making it's home debut and off a loss...So i expect them to bring it here today...How much they bring is another question...I thought they would bring it the last two weeks and they didn't....I think the +2.5 for Buffalo is a bit high from what i have seen...The situation here favors the Dolphins though..Always tough coming off a game Vs. the Pats for the Bills...Also,playing a team early in the schedule off a loss in a home debut game...The Bills are a good team though...Shady McCoy will get his touches and the Dolphins rush defense is going south fast...They are allowing a bundle of rushing yards and now they face the best back field they will see for a bit...McCoy can have a great game..My concern for him is dancing around and not hitting the holes..Rex Ryan i favor by a slight margin over the Miami HC...Ok, i admit it..I favor Rex by a decent margin here...Question is can the Bills Taylor deliver here on the road...I think he can with the weapons he has..Woods on the outside along with Watkins is a tough out..I still haven't seen Miami stop anyone on 3rd down consistently....Can Buffalo win the game?...YES...Can Buffalo lose by 3, 4 or 7... YES.....Do i think Miami has enough firepower and defense to win by 10?....NO.....Tough spot to back either side IMO....Home debut game for the Phins coming off a loss...Buffalo coming off a Pats game and now on the road in a hot place like Miami.....I'll grab +9 with Buffalo here.